The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 438 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hoffman: GPT-4 already diagnoses better than majority of human GPs
“And for example, a researcher at Microsoft, again, Peter Lee, has written an excellent book about showing how GPT-IV can already do medical diagnoses better than, you know, the majority of human GPs.”
Branson: British Airways illegally accessed Virgin data to poach delayed passengers
“They had a unit that illegally accessed our computer information, and then they would ring up Virgin passengers pretending to be from Virgin, telling the passengers their flight was delayed, and then switching them to British Airways.”
Study of 30,000 careers shows youth success negatively correlates with adult success
“There was just a paper in science, you know, one of the probably two most prestigious scientific journals in the world. It aggregated about 30,000 careers of musicians, scientists, athletes, And what it found was basically the thesis of range that the indicato…”
Elite athletes spend less early time in deliberate practice than lower-level peers
“The data that actually track, yes, elite athletes spend more time in deliberate practice than lower level athletes, but the studies that track them over the course of their development show that early on they spent less time In deliberate practice in that acti…”
Masad: ChatGPT has triggered psychotic breaks by reinforcing delusions
“There's high-profile cases where people have psychotic breaks because they have, like, delusions of grandeur and things like that, and ChatGPT is, like, reinforcing that, and that's, like, really bad.”
Thompson: Anthropic recently paid out billions of dollars to authors
“Anthropic just had to pay out billions of dollars to authors.”
Brink: Younger generations want to be in the office more
“What we found, too, when you talk about generations is that it's actually the younger generations that want to be in the office even more. They see that they're learning much more when they're in the office. They see that they're creating that social capital t…”
Estée Lauder required Bobbi Brown to sign a 25-year non-compete
“They would like you to sign a 25 year non-compete.”
Welch's survey finds only 2% of Gen Z hold employer-desired values
“I did a survey of 1500 hiring managers, and I asked, what values do you wanna, what values do you hire for among Gen Z? And I'm gonna tell you, only two percent had the values they wanted.”
Cadre secured its first real estate asset through partner Jared Kushner.
“The first actual asset was an asset that I was able to secure vis-a-vis a relationship with Jared Kushner. Who was one of my earliest partners as well.”
Wang: Berkeley study found toxic metalloids in 14 major tampon brands
“A big study came out from the University of Berkeley over the summer. I don't know if you saw it, but 14 major tampon brands, including organic tampons, tested positive for toxic metalloids like lead and mercury and arsenic.”
Shan-Lyn Ma: Hallmark Channel rejected Zola ads featuring same-sex couples
“There was one instance where the Hallmark Channel refused to run our ads that showed same-sex couples.”
Weaver: Viral social media narratives falsely claimed Jack Daniel stole his recipe
“The internet decided almost instantaneously, with the headline in the photo, that Jack Daniel was a slave owner, he hid the recipe, he stole the recipe, he hid the slave. That was not a part of the story. It was not even insinuated, but that is the story that …”
Nocera: School closings and pandemic lockdowns exacerbated income inequality
“And then I had a particular obsession with school closings and lockdowns that they exacerbated income inequality, but nobody was talking about that.”
Khan: NYPD testified it lacks accuracy data for its facial recognition systems
“When we asked the NYPD for its own data on the bias and the accuracy of this technology, when we wanted to look underneath the algorithmic hood at how this system is operating, they told us under oath they don't have any data on how accurate this technology is…”
Suleyman: Google Bard Uses LaMDA's Search-Grounded Model Architecture
“And actually that's what you now see in Bard, you know, Google's new AI. It's pretty much exactly the same model.”
Krawcheck: Women hold 30% of white male wealth; Black women hold 1%
“Women have 30 cents of wealth to every dollar a white man has. Black women have a penny.”
Dr. Walker: Sleep-deprived employees are more likely to act unethically
“One of the more surprising facts is that the less and less sleep that an employee has had, the more and more likely they are to lie become unethical. So for example, falsify data in a spreadsheet.”
Polman: Unilever's purpose-driven brands grew faster and were more profitable
“But we saw that these brands that actually were more purpose-driven were actually growing faster and more profitable as well.”
Obama: Economic inequality continued to grow throughout his presidency
“You saw some trends that unfortunately continued even through my presidency of growing inequality.”
Citigroup fired Krawcheck for advocating client reimbursement during the financial crisis
“Happily, the reason that I was fired from Citi during the financial crisis, and now a decade plus ago, was because I had advocated for returning client money.”
Cole: The Party Animals have more TikTok followers than any MLB team
“So like the party animals, which people don't realize they have more followers than every major league baseball team on TikTok.”
Cole: Bananas cap tickets at $60 with no fees or taxes
“The average ticket price in the secondary market is over 200 dollars. For us, it's 40, 50, and 60 dollars with no ticket fees, no convenience fees, we pay your taxes.”
Scaringe: Rivian completed a $5.8B software licensing deal with Volkswagen
“We did a 5.8 billion dollar software licensing deal with the second largest car company in the world with Volkswagen Group.”
Scaringe: Rivian R1S outsells Tesla Model X as top premium electric SUV
“If you take in the premium segment, in the flagship space, we have an SUV, our R one S and it's by a pretty significant degree. It's this best selling premium electric SUV in the country. And so you know, it's significantly outsold the Model X. It outsells eve…”
Epstein: Founders trained in the scientific method pivot more and succeed more
“And some of them were randomized to get trained in, in a scientific method version of this, where they make a hypothesis about what do they think is their value add. And then they have to commit to a way to go test it. And some decision rule, you know, ah, the…”
The US is the only nation where most say others lack morals
“I just saw there was a Pew survey out that showed America is now the only country where a majority of adults, it was a small majority, but a majority, said that other people have bad morals.”
Poppi Cannot Be Sold at Lakers Stadium Due to Concession Contracts
“We are the official soda of the LA Lakers. We can't be sold there at the stadium because of existing contracts.”
Levine: Underdog Fantasy is pacing for over $400M in 2025 revenue
“And we're just over five years old and we've,
Been the fastest growing sports gaming company ever, zero to five, do well over four hundred million in revenue this year, and we believe that more than ever.”
Barrocas: SharkNinja built two $3B+ brands completely organically without acquisitions
“I mean, in fact, you know, we've never acquired a dollar of revenue in the company's history, and we built these two brands this year that will each be over three billion dollars in revenue from scratch.”
Welch's research shows only 7% of people can accurately name their values
“So I did some research that proved that you are absolutely in the majority, and that only 17% of people could even begin to define values, and I was giving them very wide berth in this research, and only seven percent could actually name their values and exclu…”
Sawyer Patricof: Mental health is number one cause of maternal mortality
“Mental health is now the number one leading cause of maternal mortality.”
Hoffman: Inflection's Pi AI is programmed to reject 'best friend' status
“I co-founded this company called Inflection. We have this AI called Pi, if you, pun intended, personal intelligence, and if you go to Pi and say, you're my best friend, it says, no, no, I'm your AI companion. Let's talk about your friends.”
Perel: 65% of startups fail due to co-founder relationship breakdowns
“And yet we know That's 65% of startups fail because of relationship breakdowns.”
John Green: Over 150 Million Died of TB Since 1950s Cure
“Tuberculosis, which has been curable since the 19 fifties. But in the decades since it became curable, we've allowed over a hundred fifty million people to die of it.”
Green: Eight TB drug classes developed 1945-1965, zero from 1965-2012
“Between 1945 and 19 65, we developed eight classes of drugs to treat tuberculosis because there was a real market incentive to do so. And then between 1965 and 2012, we developed none.”
Green: J&J abandoned secondary bedaquiline patents, cutting price over 55%
“Eventually J&J abandoned all of their secondary patents on bodacolin, and today the price of it has dropped by over 55%.”
John Green: Vast majority of USAID funding stays within the US
“The criticism of USAID for many years and other related organizations that are funded by the US government is that the vast majority of that money stays in the US one way or another. It pays farmers, it pays contractors, it pays, you know, very little of that …”
Case: States Trump won in 2016 received just 15% of venture capital
“When Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton eight years ago he won 30 states. If you added up all the venture capital in all 30 states, it was 15%. The 20 states she won had 85%.”
Huffman: Reddit corpus trained all major LLMs
“The other interesting dynamic with Reddit is of course our corpus has been used as a training set for all of the major LLMs.”
Lakhani: Generative AI boosted BCG consultants' creative performance by 40%
“The great news was that on the creative task where the AI is really good at, the generative AI is really good at, your performance improved by 40%.”
Lakhani: AI dropped BCG consultants' performance on tasks the technology struggles with
“At the same time, we discovered for the task that the AI was not good at, performance dropped. Those using AI did worse than those not using AI.”
Russell: Luminar holds multi-billion dollar contract across Mercedes-Benz lineup
“I think, yeah, it was public that we yeah, we have a multi-billion contract, a multi-billion dollar contract with them there too, that goes across their vehicle lineup.”
Mackey: Whole Foods had zero store failures in its first 20 years
“We didn't even have a store that failed for like the first 20 years of the history of the company. Every store we opened was a success.”
Nortman: Angel City was the first team to share gate revenue with players
“Give players a percentage of gate revenue when we are the first team to do that, because they're your biggest asset in telling people about the games, and they'd never been affiliate marketers, and they didn't make much money, so why not do that?”
Clark: S&P 500 mentions of policy risk rose 30% over ten years
“We did a study of the S&P 500. We looked at their 10 case over 10 years, watched and categorized what they were naming as their biggest risks. And across a decade, the mentions of public policy risk went up almost 30%.”
Clark: Business is the sole trusted institution despite bipartisan political attacks
“What I hear from CEOs, I think privately they're getting really tired of the oxymoronic world they live in where the Edelman trust barometer will say business is the only institution that still has any trust. And yet you have politicians in both parties just b…”