The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Reid Hoffman (4)Arvind Krishna (3)John Green (2)Zayleen Jamohamed (1)Shantanu Narayen (1)RJ Scaringe (1)Rashid Ali (1)Rachel Botsman (1)Nick Thompson (1)Katy Milkman (1)Katherine Maher (1)Julie Uhrman (1)
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Closed calls (13) the full record →
Masad: Future developers will program entirely in natural language
“I think there are people that are going to be entirely programming in natural language.”
Russell: Luminar targets up to $60B in booked business by 2030
“Our target is to be as much as a sixty billion by the end of the decade.”
Wang: Japan and South Korea will establish AI Safety Institutes
“The UK has an AI safety Institute. The U S is an AI safety Institute. It looks like, you know, Japan and Korea are going to add AI safety institutes all in the mission of ensuring that there's proper test and evaluation of these AI systems.”
Unsustainable standalone economics will force a wave of streaming service mergers
“I think what you're going to start seeing is that some of these companies are going to start merging. Because it's very difficult to sustain them On their own.”
Hoffman: AI will transform search and reduce traditional search usage
“Well, I think it definitely transforms the search industry. And I think that once people start using it, they use search overall less. And part of the reason that's very straightforward, which is sometimes you're looking for an answer, not 10 blue links.”
Hoffman: Larger AI Models Are Harder to Jailbreak and Deceive
“The larger models are much more easily trainable to say when someone asks for, I'd like to break into the following computer, right? Help me do it. It goes, well, I'm sorry, I can't do that. Today's models, you go, well, my grandmother used to put me to sleep …”
Ryan: Non-regulated sectors will adopt AI faster than healthcare and finance
“The way we've looked at it is non-regulated businesses in general will be earlier adopted. So think consumer and other areas, areas that are highly regulated, like financial services or healthcare will be slower because of the risk of getting it wrong.”
Ryan Holiday: Daily Stoic will easily reach 1M daily email readers by 2026
“We'll go into twenty-twenty-six with easily a million people getting it every day.”
Ali: Chomps expects to reach $1 billion in retail sales in 2025
“So we'll do just about a billion in retail sales this year. That's nearly almost like doubling from last year.”
Hoffman: Text-to-speech will soon allow selecting contextual voice personas
“Now, part of it is, you know, next year I suspect it'll just be upload text file, Get which version of the Reed voice you want. Do you want the Masters of Scale Reed voice? Do you want the Fireside Chat Reed voice? Do you want the Reed Hoffman doing his, you k…”
Yaffe: Dude Perfect tour will sell ~250k arena tickets matching NBA prices
“And over the course of this tour, we're going to sell close to a quarter of a million tickets throughout the U S at very, very meaningful ticket prices, average ticket prices that rival an NBA or an NHL game.”
Harrison: Charity Water Expects 35% Growth and Over $70M Revenue
“Last year we grew 37%. This year we're gonna grow another 35%. We think we're gonna do over seventy million dollars this year. Help almost one and a half million people get clean water.”
Suleyman: Inflection Will Deploy the World's Largest Supercluster by Autumn 2023
“And we also just announced our new funding round where we've been lucky enough to be able to raise 1.3 billion dollars. And we'll be using that to build the largest super cluster in the world, which we'll have up and running by the autumn of this year.”