why aren't all 71 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Hay: Twitter ruins careers because people cannot keep quiet
“I think Twitter, like, ruins people's careers. I've already seen multiple careers ruined by Twitter. Some people just don't know how to shut their mouth, so, like, I just, I'm not on Twitter.”
Assertion Supported
Bing wasted 100 person-years integrating social feeds before shutting it down
“We hooked into the Twitter Firehose feed, and we hooked into Facebook, and we spent a hundred person years on this idea, and it failed. You don't see it anymore. It existed for about a year and a half, and all the experiments were just negative to flat.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rachitsky: LinkedIn is now the biggest traffic driver for my newsletter
“Also, it's become the biggest source of traffic for my newsletter, more so than Twitter, which I never expected.”
Opinion
Meservey: Viral Twitter growth threads attract low-value likes but fail to earn respect
“They get a lot of likes that are kind of low value likes from random people about the internet. But I don't think that they're deepening a relationship with a meaningful audience. And I don't think that they're really capturing the respect and admiration of th…”
Insight
Meservey: Chasing vanity virality inflates followers but creates an unengaged, mismatched audience
“Sometimes in the effort to just gain followers for the sake of it or go viral for the sake of it, you end up with a mismatch of the audience. You had this viral hamster tweet and now they're all here expecting hamster content and they're not engaging with you.…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rachitsky: LinkedIn now drives more traffic to my newsletter than Twitter
“What's interesting I found recently is I get more traffic to my newsletter from LinkedIn than Twitter.”
Insight
Subscribing is a far higher-intent signal than social media follows
“Subscribe as like an action is pretty heavyweight. It's like a costly signal, right? It's not as easy as just like mashing the follow button on a bunch of accounts on Twitter or something like that. If someone is subscribed to you, they're kind of granting you…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Japanese Twitter users tweeted 6x more often than Western users
“People in Japan tweeted six times more often than people in western markets, and it was largely when we spoke to them because kanji lets you say heaps more in the same number of characters than you know, a romance language did.”
Assertion Contradicted
Coleman: Elon Musk endorsed Community Notes prototype two years before acquisition
“This is, I think, two years before any acquisition stuff happened, Elon is just a Twitter user building rockets and electric cars and other cool stuff, and stumbles on this thing that depicts the prototype that we've been testing, and he writes back, yeah, def…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coleman: About one-third of Twitter employees were leaving annually in 2016
“Something like a third of employees were leaving every year. So just imagine, like, a third of your team gone every year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coleman: No employees were assigned to Community Notes; all self-selected
“We did not assign anyone to this project. Like people reached out to join or they applied to join the job. You know, I and the team interviewed every single person that joined the team and we're like, we want that person on the team. They want to be on the tea…”
Assertion Supported
Runway sent influencers locked bags with three-day countdowns to build hype
“They did this really clever strategy where they sent all these influencer types on Twitter, a package that it arrives and it's a bag with a lock on it. And the lock says this will open in three days. And there's a countdown that's counting down and you can't l…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Beykpour says most employees he recommended to Musk stayed at Twitter
“Most of the people that I mentioned are still there, which is awesome.”
Assertion Supported
Beykpour: Musk Held Two-Hour Transition Meeting at Twitter HQ with Isaacson Present
“And in that massive conference room, it was me, Scott, Elon, and then at the very, very end of the room, Walter Isaacson, who, by the way, like, I had a hard time I knew I recognized, I never met Walter in person, but I was like, is that Walter Isaacson? But h…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Beykpour: Telco SMS bug blocked Twitter signups in UAE and other countries
“We finally had got more rigorous amount around instrumenting our onboarding flow. And we found that like in a couple of countries, like we, like one of the, we had a bug with our like SMS verification flow where, you know, we wanted to verify users who were si…”
Assertion Supported
Rachitsky: Leading US tech and enterprise CEOs were born in India
“Today the CEOs of Microsoft, Alphabet, Adobe, which is a two hundred fifty billion dollar company, turns out, IBM, which is a hundred seventy billion dollar company, Palo Alto Networks, which is a hundred billion dollar company, even Starbucks, also a hundred …”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Rachitsky: Box CEO Aaron Levie makes thousands from X revenue sharing
“He actually makes money from Twitter, and now that Twitter pays you for views and things, and they share ads, he makes, like, thousands of dollars also from X now, by the way, not Twitter.”
Assertion Supported
Figma packages routine engineering quality week fixes into annual 'Little Big Updates'
“We did quality weeks with engineering, and then we decided a couple years ago, we had this idea where we're like, oh, when we package all of those quality updates up into one thing and launch them together, and we could even show like the tweet or the, you kno…”
Disclosure
Meservey: I built my Twitter following specifically to reach Substack's target writers
“And before I worked at Substack, I had a sleepy account of a couple hundred followers that Didn't do very much. And I realized that the people that we were trying to speak to are heavy Twitter users, whether it's media people or online writers. And so I decide…”
Opinion
Dunford: Twitter sharpens thinking via pushback, whereas LinkedIn offers superficial praise
“Like if I have a half-baked idea, I throw it out on LinkedIn and everyone goes, that's great, April. And that's it. Whereas if I have a half-baked idea and I throw it out on Twitter. People aren't shy about telling me I'm wrong. And I appreciate it because I k…”
Assertion Supported
Notion launched its ambassador program in 2019 with 20 vocal users
“The initial base of the ambassadors program, which started back in 2019, Was just 20 people and they were the 20 people who we happened to see be the most vocal already across Twitter and a couple of other social media platforms”
Insight
Hoover: Product launches serve as overlooked team morale milestones
“One of them is team morale. And this might, I think this is overlooked. And I would also encourage founders not to get their team to I would say you shouldn't be motivated to launch a product just to get like the likes on Twitter and the upvotes on product hun…”
Disclosure
Zeratsky disabled Instagram and Facebook and keeps social apps off his phone
“I, I'm not on Instagram and I'm not on Facebook. Like I was on both of those things and I left both of them. Like I disabled my accounts. I am on Twitter and LinkedIn, but I don't have either of those apps installed on my phone. I stay logged out of those site…”