why aren't all 70 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Meta argues Apple and Google should handle age verification at OS-level.
“And as a product person, the way that I think this should really work is that instead of everyone entering, you know, teens use on average, 40 apps instead of Instagram and the other 39 apps that teens use trying to verify the age of the person using their app…”
Opinion
Bier: Apple's iOS 18 contact sync flow is 'egregiously bad'
“I think the person that designed the feature probably have, has never Built an app or done contact sync before because the flow is egregiously bad.”
Opinion
Miller: Apple and Google disincentivize rich web apps to protect revenues
“Apple, they don't want you making web apps or applications for the web. They want you making them for the Mac and the iPhone so they can tax you when you do it through the app store. And also surprisingly, Google doesn't want you making stuff more native and i…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jobs told iPhone touchscreen dissenters to get on board or leave
“And guess who wins at the end of the day? Steve jobs, opinion. And he was like, if you're not going to get on board, get out of this room and you can go work on another project, but you're not going to work on this.”
What-if
Fadell: Without iPod, there would be no iPhone and Apple likely would have failed
“And that's how iPhone was able to be created because without the iPod there, I'm pretty sure there would have been no iPhone. There would have probably been no Apple because it was close to bankruptcy.”
Opinion
Apple alumni resonated better with Airbnb's culture than Amazon alumni did
“In fact, Airbnb saw it, I think when with Amazon people Apple people have resonated pretty well at Airbnb, Amazon people less so.”
Assertion Contradicted
Apple Design Always Reported to Engineering Under Steve Jobs
“That's how it worked at Apple the whole time under Steve. Design always reported to engineering, you know, they're there. Now I think it's structured a little bit differently, but design has always been part of engineering at Apple.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Houston: Big tech competitor launches showed no visible impact on Dropbox's numbers
“The products launched, but you would never be able to look at our numbers and see when that happened.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benioff gifted AppStore.com to Steve Jobs, who doubted its potential
“Steve, I'm gonna give you something you don't have, but maybe you'll need, which is the AppStore.com URL, AppStore.com, and the trademark for AppStore, because after that meeting we had, like, six years ago, I ended up trademarking these things and buying this…”
Opinion
Godin: Humane AI Pin failed by targeting mainstream Apple-style buyers
“And so, you know, the humane pin people, whatever it was called, made a mistake when they picked their customers. Because they showed up like they had a finished Apple quality product, and they were trying to appeal to the kind of people that would buy on pre-…”
Assertion Supported
Schwartz: Apple Refused Microsoft’s Offer to Replace Google with Bing for Free
“One is that Bing tried to give itself to Apple for free, and Apple said there was absolutely no price that they would take to use Bing search within Apple.”
Opinion
Martin: App developers willingly joined Apple's ecosystem and shouldn't complain about fees
“All the apps complain about what cut Apple is taking, but they made a choice, a value chain choice. We are going to design something that will appear on an iPhone or an Android device if that is. And then good luck to you. You can complain like crazy that they…”
Insight
Shah: Zuckerberg touting Quest's utility actively boosts Apple Vision Pro's status
“The most fascinating thing that I saw was Zach talking about the utility of Meta being better than Vision Pro and their product. And that's exactly going to work well for Apple because when you try to make the product more utilitarian, it loses status. And if …”
Insight
Hearst: Apple built features around launch messaging, not quantitative metrics
“You were working on the messaging and working on the consumer positioning again, well, in advance of anything actually being live or built, like that kind of was what framed what features you wanted to build and what problems you would put on the table to be s…”
Opinion
Fadell: Apple and Google should do much more for digital well-being
“I still think that the platform companies like Google and Apple could be doing a lot more around digital consumption tools and information to help people make better decisions for themselves, for their families, and what have you, because, you know, you could …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jobs honed the iPhone story daily instead of delegating to marketing
“When we did the two and a half years with the iPhone, he was honing the story of the iPhone every day. He didn't give it to marketing. He knew what that thing was, and what those key features were, like we talked about, like, and micromanaged those features, b…”
Opinion
Evans: Major tech incumbents are unlikely to be fundamentally disrupted by AI
“You can look at, you know, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and say, it's hard to see a problem for them, really, with all of this. You can certainly see questions for all of them and one of them may drop the ball, but it's worth, you know, kind of remembering…”
Opinion
Balfour: Apple is best positioned in AI distribution due to device context
“My hypothesis of who's best Positioned, but is not executing on it right now would actually be Apple because through the devices, they basically can see everything. So they have the ultimate view into your context, right?”
Opinion
Balfour: Companies relying exclusively on SEO loops face serious existential trouble today
“So many companies got completely killed during you know, the crash of the Facebook social platform. Apple's 30% tax, you know, basically destroyed a bunch of types of types of applications and business models because it just, you couldn't, you feel like it was…”
Insight
Baxley: Companies Hire You for Former Culture's Values, Not Behaviors
“The thing I took away from Apple, and I think this is true for anybody changing from one major culture to another is most likely the new place hired you because of the values of the organization you left, but not the behaviors.”
Opinion
Baxley: Tony Fadell's Nest Is an Outlier Among Apple Alumni Startups
“So obviously Tony Fadell would be one with nest. And he would, he'd be an outlier.”
Opinion
Baxley: Google and Amazon Do Not Compete on Design Like Apple
“And Apple does, Airbnb does. I don't get the sense that Google does. And I don't get the sense that Amazon does. And that's not a critique on them. I don't think that those organizations are competing on design in the same way.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Apple Generated Billions From Its Global Online Store With Just Six Designers
“You know, we had six designers for a store that ran in 30 some odd countries, 12 and a half thousand instances of the store doing billions of dollars of revenue. We had six designers like any other company would have had 60 or more.”
Insight
Houston: Incumbent platform bundling acts like a gradual boa constrictor
“There's a big time lag where between when these products launch and when they actually have an impact, because often it's not so much the existence of the product or its availability, it's the sort of Constant bundling or the constant iteration or, you know it…”
Insight
Schwartz: Voice Assistants Failed Because They Provided Single Answers Without Choice
“One of the reasons I think these home assistants, whether it's from Google or Apple or Amazon have never taken off is because you don't have choice.
You talk to your Google and it gives you only one answer.
You talk to Amazon and it gives you only one answer.”
Opinion
Empowering designers at Apple and Snap created their most novel products
“Like what Snapchat has done And I think Apple to the same extent is that designers run the show. And I think that's led to some very novel products coming out from both of those companies.”
Opinion
Sutherland: Steve Jobs was a marketer and salesman, not a technologist
“Steve jobs was not a technologist. He was a pitch man. He was a hot star. I mean, this is compliments. Okay. He was a brilliant salesman. He was a fantastic marketer.”
Insight
Kim Scott: Radical Candor Is Measured at the Listener's Ear
“Radical candor gets measured not at, you know, not at the speaker's mouth, but at the listener's ear, and I think that Steve had built a team around him of people who didn't mind rather what other people would consider obnoxious aggression, but I think in the …”
Insight
Strong brands become default consumer choices even over technically superior products
“If you can build a brand, then I think it's like, It doesn't really, even the product almost doesn't matter. Like it's, it becomes this kind of default. Like, I don't know, like again, like Apple or Nike is like, yeah, there's all kinds of shoes you can buy, b…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Don Valentine backed Apple despite calling their recipe pitch incredibly stupid
“And I sat there with Don Valentine and asked him about why he signed the check to Steve and Steve. And he said it was the stupidest use case he ever saw. The use case was a stay at home mom keeping track of her recipes on the Apple personal computer. This is t…”
Insight
Hearst: Apple was led by craftspeople, Google by corporate strategists
“It's much more of like design and engineering kind of led organizations. Craftspeople, I would say more so than strategy people. So that was one of the stark differences I saw in my transition from Apple to Google. There are a lot more like people from Coca-Co…”
Assertion Partly supported
Hutchins: Apple Podcast charts reflect new subscriber momentum, not total download volume
“The ranking charts are all driven by different variables than you would imagine. They're driven a lot by momentum of new subscribers, at least on the Apple charts, than actual downloads.”
Insight
Winters: Proprietary product data provides an edge after Apple privacy shifts
“Especially with Facebook and Apple's platform changes, your product being able to generate its own data versus just relying on the big platforms to do all the work for you. That's a real edge that companies are starting to wake up to.”
Assertion Supported
Fadell: Only 1-2% of phone users had BlackBerries during early iPhone development
“Only one percent or two percent of mobile phone users at the time had a Blackberry, knew what a Blackberry was.”
Assertion Supported
Fadell: Apple iPod was first to use lithium prismatic polymer cells
“We were the first, Products to have lithium ion or lithium prismatic polymer cells.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fadell: Apple's initial iPod marketing push into Europe failed due to US-centric messaging
“We ran the same marketing as we were doing in the U S in Europe. And the thing is it didn't resonate with the early adopters. It didn't resonate with the later adopters because we didn't have the same messages. We were going for a different set of people and w…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fadell: Apple made no profit on the first-generation iPod or iPhone
“Like on the first iPods, we weren't making any money first iPhones. We weren't making any money, right?”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple has roughly one billion devices capable of edge AI
“And in that situation, of course Apple's got like a billion devices that can run this on edge.”
Opinion
Kalinowski: Apple alumni excel because Apple trains for complex interdependent risk
“Apple also taught me and a lot of other people, actually, if you look at kind of the era that I was there, I was very, very lucky because if you look at the other folks who were there, I was there between oh seven and the end of 20 12. If you look at the other…”
Assertion Supported
Ries: Steve Jobs prioritized skip-level meetings with key culture carriers
“Steve Jobs very famously would host, have skip level meetings. He wanted to meet not with his direct subordinates. He didn't care. He wanted to meet with the torch bearers throughout the organization.”
Assertion Supported
How early Snapchat hacked touch-events to detect screenshots without Apple's API
“Even though Apple didn't provide an API at the time to let you know that a screenshot had been taken, ah, there was a way for us to essentially detect this touch event to learn that a screenshot, ah, had happened. And then we would just send a notification bac…”
Insight
MacInnis: Relaxing in competitive markets always invites competitor disruption
“If the market is valuable, it's competitive. No question. If you leave anything on the field, if you sort of leave a crack for your competitor, like 100% chance they're going to go fill that crack. And so you have to be relentless. There can be no relaxation o…”
Disclosure
Mann: Anthropic bases Constitutional AI on UN Human Rights and Apple terms
“And then another piece that's come out is constitutional AI, where we have this list of natural language principles that leads the model to learn how we think a model should behave. And they've been taken from things like the UN declaration of human rights and…”
Insight
Baxley: Deep cultural indoctrination makes leaving companies like Apple difficult
“You know, you get kind of indoctrinated to those, all those standards and it's really deep. It infuses all of your behavior and how you conduct yourself in the company away from the company. And so I think it's pretty hard to immigrate successfully from one of…”
Insight
Baxley: Startups frequently outgrow the emotional and developmental capacity of their executives
“I came to think that the job of a startup was to grow the founder so they could continue to lead the startup. And I think what's true for founders is also true for a lot of other folks in the executive staff. It's very hard to grow emotionally and developmenta…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Barrios: Apple Created an App Store Rule Specifically for His Battery-Draining App
“I'm happy to say there is an app store rule that is, was made specifically for me at the time.”
Assertion Supported
Steve Jobs personally called developers to explain early App Store rejections
“So the executive team at Apple, including Steve were actually calling developers to inform them that their apps were not going to be approved, that they were taken off the off the app store kind of like trying to avoid them going to the press and just like bei…”
Insight
Kansal: Third- and fourth-place consumer players cannot compete without unique angles
“In consumer markets, if you are player number three or player number four, it's a little hard because the two top players are going to compete with each other so ferociously that it's, especially if they're scale players like Apple and Google, it's difficult f…”