Timothy Davis
Performance Marketing Lead, Shopify · 1 appearance on the record.
computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →
21statements → 5claims → 3claims resolved → 100%fully supported → 3.9/5average certainty → 2.05/5average debate potential → ≈3.5/5argument clarity, estimated →
3 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 5 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
5 assertions · 1 opinion · 15 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 5 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 3 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Timothy argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Davis: eBay cut brand search ads realizing organic traffic converted anyway
“They ultimately decided to cut almost all of their brand spend because they found that users were already going to find them through organic anyway. So they were just kind of Throwing money out the window. And it was really hard for competitors to get their ad…”
How they sound: not measured why? →
We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Timothy Davis on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.
Everything Timothy Davis said on Lenny's Podcast that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Davis: Every company must invest in paid search due to AI results
“Hot take I would say paid is for everyone. I, if you look at the way each platform is doing Google introducing AI plus with paid taking up like the first four spots, you have to scroll pretty far down to get to an organic listing. Meta. It's almost a pay for p…”
Davis: Pre-PMF paid ads risk permanently alienating future customers
“All you're going to do is really annoy the users because say in the future they are, hey, I'm still interested, but I don't want to use that product because I already tried. It's like, no, no, you can totally use it now. I already tried. It's, I had a bad expe…”
Davis: Bring paid growth in-house once ad spend reaches $50,000 monthly
“Start there, get it to a good place, create that milestone of, hey, when we're spending 50 K a month, I need to hire somebody full time to take this over and just have that conversation with your agency and your consultant.”
Davis: Google Ads maintains a hidden account-level quality score
“I'm a firm believer in that there's a An account level quality score, not just necessarily a keyword or an ad quality score. So just turning this one off and removing it from the account, this one ad could dramatically improve your performance.”
Davis: eBay cut brand search ads realizing organic traffic converted anyway
“They ultimately decided to cut almost all of their brand spend because they found that users were already going to find them through organic anyway. So they were just kind of Throwing money out the window. And it was really hard for competitors to get their ad…”
Davis: Incrementality testing is useless below $50,000 in monthly platform spend
“If you're not spending more than, I would say, 50 K a month in the platform, doing this is going to be a lot more work than you're gonna get result from. You, you're just not gonna have enough signal there.”
Davis: Start platform experiments by building lookalikes from existing customer data
“The number one thing I tell people all the time is use your own data. Start with your own data. So take the existing customer base you have, load that up into the platform to build lookalikes.”
Davis: Lookalike audiences of 8% or higher usually fail on ad platforms
“What I tend to do is build ad sets, one at one percent, because we know that one's going to be highly correlated to what we're looking for. Then a two to four, and then a five to seven, and then an eight plus. More times than not, the eight plus does not work.”
Davis: LinkedIn ads cost roughly three times more than other channels
“LinkedIn is very expensive in comparison. So just know if you're going into LinkedIn, it's going to look almost three times more expensive than other channels.”
Davis: Test Google and Meta before advertising on LinkedIn
“I would not recommend getting into LinkedIn and my LinkedIn reps may kill me for this. I would not recommend getting into LinkedIn until you've tested Google and meta first.”
Davis: Emotional and humorous YouTube ads outperform other creative approaches
“If you can have an emotional connection with the user is going to be way more impactful and way more powerful than anything else. And to take that further, when I say emotion that I'm talking about comedy. I'm talking about, you know happiness.”
Davis: Ask ad platform reps for anonymized performance data against top competitors
“Every single platform has partners available... If you give me your, the five people you consider to be your top competitors, I will tell you if you are above or below a certain threshold. Now, they can't tell you CAC because they would have to have transparen…”
Davis: Optimizing for impression share is ego marketing over click share
“It's not about showing as often as possible, because that's what impression share tells you. And that's kind of like ego marketing. I want to be number one. I want to be there all the time. It's about showing to the right person as often as possible. Instead o…”
Davis: First three growth hires should be generalist, creative, and data scientist
“So the first thing like we said, someone data driven that can get into the platforms. The next is going to be creative because I need those two now working hand in hand making sure the creative is matching the tone. And also the performance that we're trying t…”
Davis: Simple '$0 setup fee' copy beat comprehensive value-prop ads for ADT
“Perfect example, I was working with ADT, you know, the security company we wrote The most perfect ad when Google ads only allowed a headline and two descriptions of 35 and 35, we got every single value prop in there. Somehow it was amazing. And the ad that it …”
Davis: Require multiple over-capacity quarters and task pruning before adding headcount
“Next quarter it's red again. All right. Now maybe we need to start having the conversation of what this new hire will take over. What they will be responsible for and how much work they'll be taking on and doing to replace some of this red that is going on. An…”
Davis: Competitors bidding on your brand terms is often accidental Google automation
“A lot of times competitors could be doing it on accident. And what I mean by accident is within Google, if you're bidding on keywords Google will do what's called a close variant.”
Davis: Modern paid growth encompasses offline channels alongside digital
“Historically people when they have said paid growth have been fully focused on just online. But I would argue in the last couple of years, you could definitely roll offline into that conversation as well.”
Davis: Upgrading Google ad relevance above average yields 12% more impressions
“More times than, I think it's a 12% increase in the number of impressions you can get if you increase from a below average to an above average for the data that's available here.”
Davis: Combining auction metrics effectively reveals genuine competitor threats
“And two of those metrics are position above rate, When we show an amount of times they show and we don't. Add it together, and it will show how often a competitor ranks above you in all auctions you are available for. Using this type of lens is an effective wa…”
Appearances (1)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| The ultimate guide to paid growth | Timothy Davis (Shopify) | Jul 28, 2024 | 1h 10m |