The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Conrad: Hyperscalers will probably lose significant money reselling Nvidia GPUs
“My intuition is that the hyperscalers are probably going to lose a lot of money, and they know they're going to lose a lot of money on reselling NVIDIA GPUs at least.”
Conrad: Decentralized compute networks will never beat co-located InfiniBand clusters
“I just don't really think this is gonna ever be more efficient than a fully interconnected cluster with Infiniband, or, you know, whatever sort of next spec might be. Like, I could be completely wrong, but Speedolite is really hard to beat. And regardless of w…”
Conrad: The AI VC bubble will pop and fail to return capital
“So what you've done by not having a future is you've inflated the venture capital market. And that is a bubble that's totally going to pop at some point. Like a lot of the companies are not going to work. And the valuations are not going to work. And what's go…”
Conrad: GPU market will likely return to a shortage by winter
“My general prediction is that like by the winter we will be back towards shortage, but then also this very much depends on
The rollout of future chips.”