The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: Claude Code's share of GitHub commits doubled to 4% in January
“Just in January, it went from four percent of or two percent of commits on GitHub to four percent of GitHub commits were done by Cloud Code, right?”
Patel: Google and Amazon will borrow debt to fund AI infrastructure
“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”
Patel: AI inference will deploy more GPUs than training by 2024
“LLM inference will be bigger than training, or multimodal, whatever, blah, blah, blah inference will be bigger than training, you know, probably next year, in fact at least in terms of GPUs deployed,”
Patel: Hugging Face libraries achieve only 15% MBU for inference
“Hugging Face's libraries are actually very inefficient, like incredibly inefficient for inference. You get like, 15% MBU on, on, on, on some configurations, like eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, 100, and LLAMA-seventy-beat, you get like, 15%, which is…”
Patel: Intel will release a chip surpassing Nvidia H100 within a quarter
“Intel bought that company from him, and then shut it down, and bought this other AI company, and now that company is kind of, ah, you know, got new chips. They're gonna release a better chip than the H 100, ah, within the next quarter or so, right?”
Patel: AMD MI300 will beat Nvidia H100 on paper within a quarter
“AMD. They have a GPU. MI 300. That will be better than the H 100 in a quarter or so. Now, that says nothing about how hard it is to program it, but at least hardware-wise, on paper, it's better.”
Patel: Nvidia to ship next-gen chip in Q2/Q3 2024 with 3x LLM performance
“Nvidia's releasing a new chip, you know, in, you know, they're gonna announce it in March, and they're gonna release it, you know, and ship it, you know, Q-two, Q-three next year anyways, right? And that chip will probably be three or four times as good. Right…”
Patel: TSMC's Arizona fab still depends on Taiwan for masks and shipping
“TSMC is building a fab in Arizona. It's quite a bit smaller than the fabs in, in, in Taiwan, but even ignoring that, those fabs still have to ship everything to Taiwan back anyways. And also they have to get what's called a mask from Taiwan and get sent to get…”
Patel: One-Third to Half of US AI Lab Researchers Are Chinese
“What, I think it's probably, like, Half or at least a third of researchers at labs are Chinese.”
Patel: Google and Amazon stocks dropped 10% on combined $380B CapEx
“Google announced a hundred and eighty billion of capex. The stock went down and then Amazon announced two hundred billion of capex and their stock went down. Like, I want to say like 10%.”
Patel: Meta is taking on $40B in debt for its Louisiana AI cluster
“Meta, they've, they're already taking debt on for their largest AI cluster in Louisiana. You know, they're taking like forty billion dollars of debt on for that”
Patel: Nvidia manufactured 400k H100s last quarter and will sell 530k this quarter
“There's 400 to 500,000 being, 400,000 manufactured last quarter, and like five 30,000 this quarter being sold, right, of H-Hundreds”
Patel: Nvidia will sell over 3 million GPUs in 2024
“NVIDIA is going to sell well over three million, you know, total GPUs next year. You know, over a million H 100 this year alone, right?”
Patel: Google is co-designing TPU v5 and TPU v6 with Broadcom
“TPU, you know, all the way through to all, TPU v-five, which is the one they're in production of now, and six, and, you know, all these are all gonna be you know, co-designed with Broadcom.”
Patel: Broadcom is working on Meta's second-generation internal AI chip
“So Broadcom is, is, is, is working with, on Google's chip right now, but of course on Meta's, Meta's internal AI chip, which they're on the second generation of, working on that.”
Patel: Google will avoid deploying local laptop models to retain control
“I don't think Google is going to deploy a model that I can run on my laptop to help me with code or help me with, you know, XYZ. They're always going to want to run it on the cloud for control.”
Patel: All sub-7nm chips depend on tooling from one Austrian monopoly
“There is no chip that is less than seven nanometer that doesn't get touched by this one Austrian company's tool, right? And there is no alternative.”
Patel: Large-scale AI training currently requires a single data center
“Everything that we've seen so far is that large-scale training has to happen in an individual data center with very high-speed networking.”
Patel: Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are developing multi-datacenter training
“One of the big bottlenecks is how much power and how many chips you can get into a single data center. So, like, A, Google and OpenAI and Anthropic are working on this, right?”
Patel: SemiAnalysis reported GPT-4 mixture of experts architecture in January
“Just being clear, I talked about mixture of experts in January, it's just people didn't really notice it.”
Patel: Google TPU v5e is half the size of TPU v5p
“TPUv-V-V-E is, like the new one, but it's mostly, mostly an inference chip. It's a small chip. It's a little bit, it's about half the size of a TPUv-V-V. That chip, you know, you can get very good performance on, like, Of Lama, 70 B inference, right?”