The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 659 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ravisankar: Tech hiring slope and junior demographics will rebound in six months
“I predict that you're going to see a very different chart on both the slope of the hiring curve, as well as the demographic of the type of hires in the next Six-ish months.”
Ravisankar: Human craft will become more valuable as AI advances
“I actually think the more AI becomes powerful, the more valuable human craft and other elements are going to become because people are going to easily determine, oh, this is all done by AI. I'm just going to attribute a lower value.”
Zuckerberg: AI could help cure all diseases long before century's end
“And I do think that at the pace that, that AI is improving things, I mean, I think it might be possible significantly sooner than that. I mean, I don't think it's necessarily worth putting a number on it or a date”
Zuckerberg: Specialized virtual cell models will merge into a biological Omni model
“I would imagine you're taking these different types of virtual cell models and eventually merging them into the equivalent of like a biological Omni model, kind of like how on the language model side, you had people that did language and then, you know, people…”
Zuckerberg: Timelines to cure diseases depend more on AI than biology
“I guess if we're, you know, predicting whether it's going to take. 10 or 20 or 40 years, that is probably more a function of the pace of AI development than it is a pace of the pure biology side.”
AI labs will increasingly co-design models alongside proprietary custom inference ASICs
“I definitely think things are moving towards you design a model. It's sized the way that fits well on hardware that you can design. You immediately start creating an inference hardware that is custom made to fit the sizes of your model. And then you can also s…”
Companies pushing AI code volume metrics will drown in unmaintainable slop
“I think actually there's a lot of big tech examples where they're kind of pushing really hard for their teams to use more code. They're being evaluated on how much code they're using. And they're just kind of getting more and more slop that nobody understands.…”
Future app platforms must extract auth and authorization completely
“Auth cannot be part of the app, because they're not going to get that right, right? So, Auth has to be extracted from the app. In fact, which data you can see, they also cannot be under control of the app, because again, you're going to get it wrong, right? So…”
Sands: AI Agents Will Make Fraud Decisions Within Six Months
“Now you can think about, okay, actually foundation model, text alignment, like human readable description of like why we're worried about this charge. And then today, a human tomorrow, an agent sitting on top of that and decisioning, like reasoning over The mo…”
Sands: Static dashboards will be obsolete within nine months as agents take over
“I think the value of near real time, high quality, well documented data is about to skyrocket because I'm pretty sure that nine months from now, no one is going to want to go and like look at a even like static dashboard and click around. They're going to want…”
Sands: Most businesses target AI employee efficiencies for 2027 and 2028
“I don't think it's going to show up Next year. I don't think most businesses are targeting employee efficiencies next year, but I think every business is targeting employee efficiencies for 27 and for 28, which is suggesting more efficiency.”
Webster: Meaningful AI red teaming will require internal tracing and observability
“I think especially where, where things are headed, like with more complex rags and agents and so forth, you're going to have to have some type of observability or like internal tracing in order to have, to do meaningful automated red teaming.”
Swix: Frontier model sizes have likely peaked around 2 trillion parameters
“I wonder if we've hit the peak big model craze because now I do expect, you know, 10 trillion model releases, you know, 100 trillion model releases. Probably not. I think we might have peaked at two.”
Merrill: AI evals will shift to observing real jobs over 2-3 years
“I think like the future of evals does look much more like this is like observing people who are doing their real jobs and then translating those real jobs into a format that allows you to evaluate language models and harnesses on them. And it's probably going …”
Merrill: Frontier AI labs will center operations around vertical products
“And with the Claude codes and the codec CLIs and the deep researchers, researchers, you starting to see some evidence that the products are going to be a much more central part of how these frontier labs operate.”
Corbitt: 55-60% chance RL becomes the standard pattern for deploying scale agents
“I think that the chances that like everyone should be, or, you know, everyone who's deploying an agent at scale should be doing RL with it, either as part of sort of like a, you know, like pre-deployment or even like continuously as it's deployed, that that's …”
Agarwal: AI coding assistants will cause uninterpretable outages and endless firefighting
“And so it's pretty clear to us that, you know, and we were starting to use it ourselves and sometimes we didn't understand what the code was doing, but you know, we shipped it. And so it's like, well, if this is clearly, this is going to happen a lot more. And…”
Dwivedi: AI self-healing for complex incidents is 6-12 months away
“Now for, then there is this level of 30 to 40% of the incidents or issues where you need to involve you know, a senior engineer for sanity checking. I think that healing will appear in, I don't know, six months to a year that will be comfortably, the technolog…”
Field: Prompting will be remembered as the MS-DOS era of AI
“I think we'll look back on this era as like the MS-DOS era of AI, and the prompting and natural language that everyone's doing today, I think is just sort of like the start of how we're going to create interfaces to explore it in space.”
Field: AI code generation will force developers to rely on visual abstractions
“I also think that it's going to be something that as we move forward in time with more Asians writing more parts of your code base, you will also be less familiar with the code. And so then you might want a different abstraction where you're able to work on th…”
Field: Autonomous AI agents building complex software like Figma is a long way off
“I'm not saying, okay, go build Figma, and you, agent, are just gonna go figure out all the complexities of Figma. I think that's just not something I see happening in any near term future, even as longer range running agents start to occur and we've got better…”
Slack: Asynchronous background agents will dominate AI inference and output
“That's going to be blown up with async agents when they're running 24, seven concurrently in the background, then you can have 10 or a hundred times as many, and that's going to dominate inference. That's going to dominate the output you get.”
Ball: Foundation models will become background implementation details in AI tools
“So I think we're going towards a future where the model will become an implementation detail to some sense, and we will end up on a different abstraction layer.”
Taskaya: 80% of promotional video content will be AI-generated within 12 months
“Like 12 months, I think like 80% of this is going to be generated.”
Taskaya: Training a state-of-the-art image model costs under $1M
“Like right now, like if you look, if you want to train a Sota image model, I don't think it's going to cost more than a million dollars. It's extremely cheap. It's like a matter of data engineering effort, cleaning. It's, I think it's a function of data set.”
Morcos: Data curation still has at least 100x in performance gains ahead
“You know, we've already been able to get 10 X gains. I think there's at least another hundred X behind this that are still to be done.”
Morcos: Training a specialized frontier model will cost under $1M very soon
“I believe that getting to a frontier model should cost a million dollars or less for most organizations, at least in a specialized domain, right?
And when you think about what enterprises need, that's generally what they need.
They don't need a model that can …”
Morcos: Proper training curricula could reduce model training costs by 10x
“And getting a curriculum right could literally make the difference between, you know, spending 10 times as much on a model training, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars potentially.”
Morcos: AI inference costs will skyrocket, penalizing oversized models
“The inference costs are going to skyrocket with these models. And if you use a general purpose model, then you constrain to say, hey, this model knows about everything, but now only do this one thing. That model is going to have a ton of parameters that do not…”
Morcos: Most AI models used in three years will be under 10B parameters
“Most of the models that the vast majority of people will be using in say three years will be single digit B or smaller.”
Huber: LLMs will largely replace purpose-built re-rankers
“I think that, like, this is going to be the dominant paradigm. I actually think that, like, probably purpose-built re-rankers will go away, and the same way that, like, purpose-built, they'll still exist, right? Like, if you're at extreme scale, extreme cost, …”
Huber: Future retrieval systems will operate entirely within latent space
“I think, like, there's a few things that I think might be true about retrieval systems in the future. So, like, number one, they just stay in latent space, they don't go back to natural language.”
Sohmers: NVIDIA Blackwell memory bandwidth efficiency will be lower than Hopper
“All indications are, even though they, you know, more than doubled the theoretical memory bandwidth going from Hopper to Blackwell, the actual percentage of theoretical that you can achieve is, again, going to be less than the previous generation”
Agrawal: Positron ASIC will lead all silicon in memory capacity by 2027
“So we are going to be coming out with our ASIC and then like later, it will have more memory capacity than any other silicon in late 2026 or in 27, actually.”
Brockman: Post-AGI humans will survive without work, but compute will differentiate capability
“And so I think that the question of exactly how, you know, if you don't do work, do you survive?
I think the answer will be yes.
You'll have plenty of material, your material needs met.
But I think the question of
Can you do more?
Can you have not just generat…”
Dax Reed predicts Claude's $200/month pricing is an unsustainable growth strategy.
“I think it's pretty easy to, like, use more than 200 dollars worth, even by accident. So I would also lean towards that the Claude Max plans are a growth strategy, not like any long term pricing thing that can work, at least at the current, given the current s…”
Dax Reed predicts OpenCode will dominate when a competitor beats Claude Sonnet.
“What would change things is if there's a day where either another LM lab or like, you know, an open source model drops that is competitive with Sonnet, maybe even better than Sonnet on that day, open code is going to be the only way to do this kind of thing. C…”
Ermon: Power constraints will drive diffusion models to replace frontier LLMs
“If it happens, it's gonna be driven by efficiency. Like we're all constrained by essentially power. And if you have, I mean, at the end of the day, it's all an inference game, right? Okay. Training is expensive, but then the thing that matters is being able to…”
Lambert: Hybrid reasoners may be phased out except for niche uses
“I think in plenty of ways, like hybrid reasoners might just be aged out except for niche applications because quality is so much more important than having a hundred X less inference tokens. It's like you just pay for it and compute and that'll get better.”
Scott Wu: There will be way more software engineers than ever
“And so, you know, I think software engineering, the job that we call software engineering is going to change, but I think practically, like, there's actually going to be way more software engineers than ever, you know, and I think there's a lot of precedent fo…”
Scott Wu: AI will make engineers 5-10x more effective
“I think, you know, our demand for software to be built is actually probably a lot more than 10 X what we're currently getting, and so, you know, I think what happens is we get to open up the power of software engineering to a lot more people, and every single …”
Wu: AI automation will expose junior engineers to core architecture earlier
“You know, I think what happens, honestly, is I think that demand is going to just keep rising with supply. And I think the training process is going to change a little bit, but, you know, I think a lot of these core fundamentals of, you know, if you think of s…”
Mohan: Explicit user prompting will soon become an anti-pattern in AI coding
“I actually think asking people to do things explicitly is probably going to be more of an anti-pattern if we can actually go and passively suggest the entire change for the user.”
Wu predicts AI coding agents will advance 16x to 64x in 12 months
“And I think that, you know, we're gonna see another 16 to 64 X over the next 12 months as well.”
Scaling math AI becomes purely compute and data once auto-evaluation works
“And then my guess is, I believe in IL, so if for each category, we can figure out the A way to auto-evaluate the results, then after that, it will just be compute and data.”
Formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean is doable in 2-3 years
“It's I think definitely possible. Yeah. Like he, so the professor is Kevin buzzard and he got like a grant and now he just like focused on writing the proof for Ling. Like he's hoping to finish that in like two or three years. And then basically like if Ling i…”