The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 659 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Long-form AI video generation must switch to autoregressive architectures over diffusion
“Autoregressive video seems to me like that is the bet that the future is going to be making. But there are no good open source autoregressive video models out there today. And that seems to be, if you want to get like an hour movie, if you want to see video mo…”
Kant: Catching up to frontier AI labs will soon become unfeasible
“We've got a small window before models are Really impacting recursive self-improvement to a level where catching up otherwise might become unfeasible.”
Kant: Reinforcement learning will move earlier into LLM pre-training
“I have I would say a not commonly held opinion that reinforcement learning will move earlier and earlier into pre-training.”
Kant: Prompts stuffed with dozens of tools will vanish in 12 months
“I think we will in 12 months not see a single system prompt that is stuffed with 20 or 30 or 40 tools anymore.”
Kant: AI will become the world's most demanded commodity with commoditizing margins
“Intelligence is the most in life. You're going to be the world's most demanded commodity. It will more commoditize in margin and price.”
Wang: Virtual cell AI models will eventually replace physical cellular experiments
“Eventually we kind of, we can replace all the cellular experiments by simply running simulations on computer without even running the actual Experiments.”
Wang: Foundation models on causal data will beat linear baselines
“I believe that foundation model or other more complicated AI models that trend on the right data will outperform these linear models in harder tasks, particularly in generalization tasks.”
Beam: Round-over-round experimentation yields more compound value than broad datasets
“The bet is that the sort of like as the model performance improves, the sample efficiency goes up, and therefore like the compound interest that you get from round over round experimentation will outweigh that, that you would get from a big noisy, but broad da…”
Biderman: AI-native companies will amass trillions of internal tokens within 18 months
“In 18 months, many companies would have maybe trillions of tokens, which of internal company data, proprietary data. I'm talking about like maybe trillions. It sounds exaggerated, but I don't think it's an impossibility if they're really AI native.”
Biderman: Hard engineering tasks will require test-time gradient updates
“We think that eventually part of the solution for very hard tasks in, in science and engineering and defense and all that stuff will involve some form of gradient based updates during during doing these long horizon tasks.”
Biderman: In 18 months, data scale will require weight-based learning
“Other parts of it are bets that in 18 months from now, the scale of the data will require the methods that we know from pre-training work.”
Biderman: PC hardware will soon run near-trillion-parameter models locally
“And in the long, long term, I do think these things will actually run on people's devices, and we're seeing right now the new hardware on personal computers is already, ah, you know, soon approaching the ability to run inference on close to trillion parameters…”
Biderman: AI models must learn to autonomously filter out erroneous user feedback
“Increasingly the models will get better, and increasingly they'll know more things than we do, so the model in some way has to learn and understand and kind of, like, discern what, which feedback is valuable and which feedback should be ignored.”
Swyx: AI p(doom) over the next ten years is near zero
“I mean, if you do it in 10 years is near zero.”
Swyx: LLMs will plateau and potentially trigger a 30-year AI winter
“Yeah, probably LLMs are going to run out at some point and they're not AGI and okay, we have maybe another 30 years of AI winter or something and then like the next paradigm really is actually the thing.”
Swyx: Specialized agent labs like Cursor, Cognition, and Harvey will endure
“There will always be capability overhangs. They may not stay still, and so you gotta be nimble. But the Sierras of the world, the Cognitions of the world, the Cursors of the world, the Decagons and Harvey's, these are all agent labs for their field. They can b…”
Feinberg: Chipmakers will invest in life sciences as LLM alpha shrinks
“I do think that chip makers, including Nvidia, are going to want to get a lot more invested in life sciences because it will always be high in demand. And The amount of alpha left in pure LLM space is just getting a little questionable.”
Mark Chen: AI scaling laws will continue to hold
“And so I think it's just more and more of the same, right? Like more careful research engineering, more careful data engineering, more careful scaling, and it always unlocks that next ability to scale further. So I mean, it's held for You know, almost 10 order…”
Zaharia: Open agent hosting layers will win over proprietary alternatives
“Another way to think about it is like, imagine, you know we, our thing wasn't open. We had some kind of agent hosting thing, but it's not open. And then there is an open one. If you're, which one's gonna win in the long run? So like here, because there is this…”
Xin: Much of traditional software will be rewritten with data and agents
“Actually, I think many of the traditional software will be sort of rewritten with this new paradigm, which is just get the data to be there. And then they slap some agent on top.”
Kolter: Security and science will explode as AI agents automate tedious verification
“So I think this is really sort of an underappreciated point that we're reaching this point, this sort of phase where a lot of security, a lot of science has this potential to kind of explode. Not because we're going to get better at it, but because agents can …”
Anthropic will become a trillion-dollar company within four years of founding
“Have you met Dario? Dario's a scientist. He's gone from zero to like what will soon be a trillion dollar company in four years.”
Krause: China will beat the US in R&D without automated self-driving labs
“That's how I think we can compete. That's the only way we can compete. I think if we want to move forward, if we do not do that, then they will continue to win because they will outpace us on cost and they will outpace us on people.”
Krause: Most AI models will be open source in five years
“We actually think in five years, most models will be open source.”
Hong: Axiom Math will be worth $10 billion
“Because when we realize the dream, the company's gonna be worth ten billion.”
Nadella: Public AI evals are maxed out; every company will use private evals
“Most importantly, you'll have private evals, because we know all the evals out there are good, interesting, but they're not really that critical. At this point, because they're all can be maxed. And so the point is each company will have its own private eval.”
Nadella: In six months users will routinely have AI autopilots working overnight
“I'm positive that six months from now, we'll all be saying, oh, wow, like all through night, the night, there was a bunch of stuff that all these autopilots that I have working on my behalf with my delegated authority, so to speak, right? I can sort of given e…”
Nadella predicts AI agent knowledge traces will become corporate balance sheet assets
“Which is when a company says it should in fact go onto the balance sheet is how I think about it, right? That's so, in fact, there may be like human capital was never possible to go put on a balance sheet because you didn't know how to capture the tacit knowle…”
Nadella: AI agent usage of Microsoft 365 will exceed human users
“So the value creation opportunity now in the agent world is in fact, 10 X more, but it does require us to have, for example, there's going to be usage around M three six five, right? Which is going to be perhaps more than even the end users. And we have to eve…”
Nadella: Software pricing will always combine per-user with consumption meters
“There will always be a per user, but there will have to be a consumption meter.”
Nadella: Next major startup could be a new university or pedagogy
“So I think interestingly enough, maybe the next big startup and success story could be Someone who builds a new university or a new pedagogy even of how to get someone to go through a curriculum and find economic opportunity, ah, that's highly valuable.”
Ethan He: Falling inference costs will enable generative UIs for everything
“So I think as a inference cost come down, we are going to have generative UI for everything.”
Ethan He: LLM Video Agents Will Orchestrate Diffusion Models and Editing Tools
“Video agents, mostly language models, they'll call these generative model, either it's a separate model or a diffusion head or whatever as tool. So this model can iteratively Refine the results or even like you generate longer content through a very long trend…”
Ethan He: Video Agents Will Reach Production-Grade Quality by Year-End
“I guess by the end of this year is this is going to be a big hit. So the inflection point will be there and the videos generated by video agents can get to like production great quality. So it can be presented and it can be distributed in, in ads.”
AI cell simulations will enable parallel reasoning across millions of biological hypotheses
“We're gonna have increasingly capable and accurate digital representations of molecules, genomes, cells, ultimately physiology. That's where you want to get. We're gonna have to go up that, that complexity scale, the levels of biological complexity that requir…”
Smartphones will run Gemini 3 Pro-level models locally within two years
“I do think We are heading towards a future in one, two years where imagine like you can run a Gemini three pro powerful model directly in your phone, right?”
Burazin: CPUs Will Become the Next Critical Bottleneck for AI Agents
“You will get to the point, and Dylan Patel was at the conference talking about, from Semi-Analysis that talks usually about GPUs, was also talking about how CPUs will now be a bottleneck because it will be the constraint. You won't be able to grow, or we won't…”
Cooper: Natural language agents will dominate software development within ten years
“That will be kind of the dominant species over the next like 10 years is, is we've moved from assembly to C to C++ to JavaScript to now like words.”
Cooper: The traditional push-pull-rebuild deployment loop will disappear
“Like push, pull, whatever kind of like loop, I just fundamentally believe it's going to go away, right? Like it's, we're going to get to a point where you make a small change in production that changes version across your entire kind of infrastructure. You're …”
Cooper: Agentic workloads will destroy traditional static AWS instances
“I think the era of, like, I have an AWS instance, and I'm going to, you know, get four vCPU and 16 gigs of RAM, It's going to get, like, completely destroyed, right? Because it's like, if you do that for agents or anything else like that, you now need a thousa…”
Azhnyuk: Humanoid robots might be useful in combat within five years
“I would have said that, you know, I don't think that humanoid robots will be able to be useful in the battlefield earlier than in 10 years. But, you know, if you account for the exponential it might be, you know, five years or so.”
Azhnyuk: Front-strike helicopters will see increasingly reduced battlefield usage
“Front strike helicopters, I think we're going to be seeing fewer and fewer of them.”
Lee: Healthcare will solve the hardest AI problems first
“I think for the very reasons things are higher stakes or, you know, potentially considered more difficult in healthcare, I think it's where some of the hardest AI problems will get solved first, just because the bar is so high.”
Stay Sassy EM: Shift to API consumption pricing will redefine workplace management
“I think 20, 26 is going to be insane. It's already a little insane on that fund because we're seeing a lot of the big players move from kind of subsidy based request based pricing to straight up API pricing, consumption based pricing and I haven't seen a ton o…”
Andreessen: AI will sweep through coding and every other domain
“And so now we know that it's going to sweep through coding and then we know, you know, we know that if it's going to work in coding, it's going to work in everything else, right? It's just that, cause that's like the hardest, in many ways, that's the hardest e…”
Andreessen: AI hardware supply chain faces chronic shortages for next 3-4 years
“In the next three or four years, it's like somewhere between three or four years out, basically everything is selling out. So like the entire supply chain is, is, is, is sold out or selling out. And so there, there's no, like, we're just gonna have like chroni…”
Andreessen: Foundation model market will consolidate to 1-4 winners in 3 years
“Between the US and China right now, there's like a dozen primary foundation model companies. Companies that are like at scale at some level of like critical mass. It's not going to be a dozen in three years, right? Like it just because these industries don't b…”
Andreessen: Everyone in the world will use autonomous AI agents
“I have Absolutely no doubt that everybody in the world is gonna have at least, you know, an agent like this, if not an entire family of agents, and we're gonna be living in a world where I think it's almost inevitable now that this is the way people are gonna …”