The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Burazin: CPUs Will Become the Next Critical Bottleneck for AI Agents
“You will get to the point, and Dylan Patel was at the conference talking about, from Semi-Analysis that talks usually about GPUs, was also talking about how CPUs will now be a bottleneck because it will be the constraint. You won't be able to grow, or we won't…”
O'Laughlin: Memory supply will not catch up with demand for two years
“And then boom, you're just looking at the supply demand and you're like, yeah, this is not gonna catch up for like two years.”
O'Laughlin: Compiled a PhD-level chip cycle dataset in one day using AI
“I mean, this is like too much information to gather. It's like a lifetime of work. It's like a PhD project. I did it in a day.”
Patel: AI chip bottlenecks lie in interconnects and memory, not matrix multiplication
“Multiplying tensors is kind of, you know, anyone can, there's a lot of people who've made good matrix multiply units, right? But it's about, like, getting good utilization out of those, and interfacing with the memory, and interfacing with other chips really e…”
Patel: AI inference will deploy more GPUs than training by 2024
“LLM inference will be bigger than training, or multimodal, whatever, blah, blah, blah inference will be bigger than training, you know, probably next year, in fact at least in terms of GPUs deployed,”
O'Laughlin: Being 5% more accurate on EPS models never drives good investment decisions
“Is your model, you know, being five percent more accurate, really going to ever make a good investment decision or not? No, never, not once. Like no one's saying, oh yeah, my estimate is always one cent more tighter than everyone else. That's why I'm good at s…”
O'Laughlin: Traditional sell-side equity research is a broken business model on its last legs
“Sell side as a concept is very broken. If you're talking about waves and things that are changing sell side in a lot of ways is this hereditary child of like, let's say, 30 or 40 years of banking. Where you had you know, a company go public, so you needed some…”
Prakash: SemiAnalysis inference report erred by assuming unpriced input tokens
“I think there were some errors in that analysis. In particular we were trying to decode it, and one of the things we noticed is that it assumed that input tokens weren't being priced. So I think that may have been an error in the model.”