The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Insight
Roucher: DeepSeek-R1 ranks slightly below OpenAI o1 on smolagents tasks
“I tried R one, but R one is a bit under O one with small agents. And I think this is also a matter of formatting. Like sometimes the model struggles to just output them, the code snippets in the correct way that we expect.”
Aymeric (Emmerich) Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 14:25 smol agents are all you need
Insight
OpenAI o1 struggles with multi-step agentic tasks compared to GPT-4
“O-One is very good at programming, but it's kind of, the agent part was the harder part to get it to do here. I think it's like less trained To take the next step in like an agentic task, whereas GPT-IV for like the last two years has been really, you know, pr…”
Shawn Lewis Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 16:09 Beating OpenAI and Anthropic by Looking At Data: the new #1 on SWE-Bench w/ W&B CTO Shawn Lewis
Assertion Supported
Pullen: CoScene's Genie outperforms OpenAI o1 out of the box on SWE-bench
“So it was obviously great to see, like, we still are better than O-one out of the box. You know, even with an older model, and I'm sure that that, that Delta will continue to grow once we're able to train O-one and once we've done more work on our dataset usin…”
Alistair Pullen Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 1:13:04 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Assertion Supported
Shawn Lewis: o1 agent achieves 57% single-pass, 64% with parallel rollouts
“It solves, like, something like 57% of problems with a single Rollout and then using parallel rollouts and selecting the best one. With other techniques, we get something like 64%.”
Shawn Lewis Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 15:04 Beating OpenAI and Anthropic by Looking At Data: the new #1 on SWE-Bench w/ W&B CTO Shawn Lewis
Insight
Hylak: Do not micromanage OpenAI o1's step-by-step reasoning when prompting
“What I found that worked really well was not telling the model how to think about it. If that makes any sense, like almost more like you're actually interfacing with a person, which is like scary in its own right. But no, if you're working with a like a cowork…”
Ben Hillock Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 8:33 OpenAI o1 isn’t a chat model (and that’s the point)
Assertion Partly supported
Swyx: Claude Sonnet and Gemini Outperform o1-Preview in Coding
“Claude Sonnet so far is beating O-one on coding tasks without At least one preview without being a reasoning model and same for Gemini pro or Gemini two point O.”
Shawn Wang Jan 1, 2025 ▶ 37:15 2024 Year in Review: The Big Scaling Debate, the Four Wars of AI, Top Themes and the Rise of Agents
Assertion Not checkable as stated
First-principles GPU kernel modeling was beyond AI capabilities before OpenAI o1
“O1's like the initial thinking models were a big deal when I was doing like core academic, like how do I create a performance model for explaining how this kernel behaves? Like, From first principles, that kind of thing was not really in the scope of any model…”
Quentin Anthony Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 37:03 How Zyphra went all-in on AMD + Why Devs feel faster with AI but are slower — with Quentin Anthony
Insight
Lambert: Reasoning models solved basic skills; planning is the next frontier
“So I came up with four and the foundational one was skills, which is What I would say that we have already done with O-one and R-one, which is you do a lot of RL, you show the inference time scaling works and you get really high benchmark numbers. And then the…”
Nathan Lambert Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 38:34 The RLVR Revolution — with Nathan Lambert (AI2, Interconnects.ai)
Assertion Supported
Cosine's fine-tuned GPT-4o scored higher on SWE-bench than OpenAI's original o1
“And then we also on this podcast, we interviewed Cosign that actually fine tune four O to, on three bench, sorry to achieve data on three bench. And that score was actually higher than O one when it came out.”
Shawn Wang Jan 24, 2025 ▶ 19:35 The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Reasoning Distillation: using DeepSeek R1 to beat OpenAI o1
Insight
Hylak: AI development is returning to multi-step chaining of specialized models
“It feels like we're, like, going back Into a time where having these separate steps with almost like varying levels of intelligence becomes increasingly important, like this idea of chaining.”
Ben Hillock Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 20:32 OpenAI o1 isn’t a chat model (and that’s the point)
Insight
Fanelli: Chat interfaces confuse o1 users, who should write specification briefs instead
“It's almost like the chat is still the UX, you know, and I think that's what confuses people. Maybe like if you didn't have a chat interface and it was like write a brief, you know, I think people would maybe be steered more the right way.”
Alessio Fanelli Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 5:47 OpenAI o1 isn’t a chat model (and that’s the point)
Disclosure
Pullen: Replacing Genie's reasoning traces with o1 traces improves performance
“Even now we've started Replacing some of the reasoning traces in our Genie model with reasoning traces generated by O-one, or at least in tandem with O-one, and we've already started seeing improvements in performance from that point.”
Alistair Pullen Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 1:09:59 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Disclosure
Weil: OpenAI o1 will support function calling by end of 2024
“I'm really excited to see things like system prompts, And structured outputs, and function calling, make it into a one, we will be there by the end of the year.”
Kevin Weil Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 1:48:29 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Insight
Hylak: Non-engineers form fixed negative mental models after one failed AI test
“Most people try something once and if it doesn't work, they like They have this like very fixed mental model. They never tried again.”
Ben Hillock Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 1:28 OpenAI o1 isn’t a chat model (and that’s the point)
Insight
McAteer: Use coding assistants to bootstrap structured prompts from raw brainstorms
“What I do, and I think what you should do is use other prompts to sort of bootstrap your prompts. So like I have it set up in cursor or in windsurf where I was telling Alessio before we started, you basically, I have like a prompt template in a prompts directo…”
Dan McAteer Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 28:43 OpenAI o1 isn’t a chat model (and that’s the point)
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