The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Andreessen: Three-year-old Nvidia chips make more money today than when new
“The current models are getting better faster at such a rate that if you are running an NVIDIA, if you're running an NVIDIA inference chip today that's three years old, you're making more money on it today than you did three years ago. Because the pace of impro…”
Marc Andreessen Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 23:23 Marc Andreessen introspects on Death of the Browser, Pi + OpenClaw, and Why "This Time Is Different"
Assertion Contradicted
Feldman: Cerebras is 20 times faster than Nvidia B200 GPUs
“Really focused on performance, both for training and for inference. You think 20 times faster than Nvidia B 200 GPUs and it's been an amazing run.”
Andrew Feldman Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 3:05 ⚡️Raising $1.1b to build the fastest LLM Chips on Earth — Andrew Feldman, Cerebras
Assertion Supported
Sun: Synthetic data matches real-world data for multimodal model pre-training
“We were actually generating a lot of synthetic data and showing that, hey, you can actually, these synthetic data are actually as useful as real-world data when it comes to multimodal pre-training.”
Fan-yun Sun Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 2:56 Moonlake: Interactive, Multimodal World Models — with Chris Manning and Fan-yun Sun
Assertion Contradicted
Johnson: Nvidia Blackwell offers roughly same performance per watt as Hopper
“Like, if you look at the numbers, like, even going from Hopper to Blackwell, like, the performance per watt is about the same. They mostly make the number of transistors go up, and they make the chip size go up, and they make the power usage go up. But even fr…”
Justin Johnson Nov 25, 2025 ▶ 13:01 After LLMs: Spatial Intelligence and World Models — Fei-Fei Li & Justin Johnson, World Labs
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sohmers: NVIDIA Blackwell memory bandwidth efficiency will be lower than Hopper
“All indications are, even though they, you know, more than doubled the theoretical memory bandwidth going from Hopper to Blackwell, the actual percentage of theoretical that you can achieve is, again, going to be less than the previous generation”
Thomas Sohmers Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 14:53 ⚡️Accelerators @ 3x NVIDIA H200 perf, Made in the USA - Thomas Sohmers + Mitesh Agrawal, Positron AI
Assertion Supported
Cerebras WSE-3 runs Llama inference 70x faster than NVIDIA GPUs
“Cerebris came out that the wafer scale engine three can serve llama 70 B at 2.1 thousand sorry, 202,100 tokens per second and serves llama four or five B at nearly 1000 tokens per second. So this, you know, to give you an understanding, like this is about 70 t…”
Sarah Chieng Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 3:06 [Paper Club] Weight Streaming on Wafer-Scale Clusters (w/ Sarah Chieng of Cerebras)
Assertion Supported
Houston: Groq and Cerebras outperform Nvidia on latency
“There's also, like, non-NVIDIA stacks, like the Grok, or Cerebris, or some of these custom silicon companies that are super interesting, and all, and outperformed the NVIDIA stack in terms of latency and things like that.”
Drew Houston Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 52:59 Building the Silicon Brain - Drew Houston of Dropbox
Prediction Partly held up
Patel: Intel will release a chip surpassing Nvidia H100 within a quarter
“Intel bought that company from him, and then shut it down, and bought this other AI company, and now that company is kind of, ah, you know, got new chips. They're gonna release a better chip than the H 100, ah, within the next quarter or so, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 41:01 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Prediction Partly held up
Patel: Nvidia to ship next-gen chip in Q2/Q3 2024 with 3x LLM performance
“Nvidia's releasing a new chip, you know, in, you know, they're gonna announce it in March, and they're gonna release it, you know, and ship it, you know, Q-two, Q-three next year anyways, right? And that chip will probably be three or four times as good. Right…”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 44:00 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Assertion Partly supported
Datology BeyondWeb 3B matches NVIDIA Nemotron 8B in 2.7x less training time
“As you can see that we achieved the same performance as the NVIDIA model in almost, like, 2.7 X, like, lesser time. And then much faster than anything that hugging face or pajama does. Very interestingly, our three B model is pretty much the same performance a…”
Pratyush Maini Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 21:35 ⚡️ Reverse Engineering OpenAI's Training Data — Pratyush Maini, Datology
Prediction Held up
Prakash predicts up to 5 million AI GPUs will sell in 2024
“There is four to five million GPUs that will be sold this year. NVIDIA and others.”
Vipul Ved Prakash Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 30:43 Building an open AI company - with Ce and Vipul of Together AI
Assertion Supported
Patel: Nvidia manufactured 400k H100s last quarter and will sell 530k this quarter
“There's 400 to 500,000 being, 400,000 manufactured last quarter, and like five 30,000 this quarter being sold, right, of H-Hundreds”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 7:03 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Prediction Held up
Patel: Nvidia will sell over 3 million GPUs in 2024
“NVIDIA is going to sell well over three million, you know, total GPUs next year. You know, over a million H 100 this year alone, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 7:46 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Assertion Supported
TurboQuant is inefficient on high-bandwidth data center GPUs like NVIDIA B200
“TurboQuant would not be like, it would not be used. Like Nvidia made it clear that this is not a good optimization. And we've seen it firsthand where the overhead of doing dequantization, quantization of You know, in the kernel itself, the turbo-quant kernel, …”
Ali Taha Aug 3, 2026 ▶ 50:02 Next 100x in AI: Inference, Networking, & Self-Optimizing Models — Philip Kiely & Ali Taha, Baseten
Assertion Supported
Ethan He: Megatron MoE was first to train trillion-parameter MoEs at 40% MFU
“The Megatron MOEs was the first It was the first framework open source to be able to train these MOEs at very large scales, like a hundred billion parameters to even trillion parameters efficiently at like 40% MFU.”
Ethan He Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 1:41:50 Inside xAI: Building Grok Imagine in 3 Months, Videogen vs World Models, and Video Agents— Ethan He
Assertion Supported
Parakhin: Bing Sydney first launched in India using Megatron, not OpenAI
“The funny thing, I mean, the most interesting anecdote is that Sydney was first shipped in India for and it was not noticed for a long time. And first implementation of Sydney didn't even have open AI model under it. It was during Megatron. Microsoft and the N…”
Mikhail Parakhin Apr 22, 2026 ▶ 1:10:53 AI-Native Engineering: 100% adoption, 5x search throughput, unlimited tokens — Mikhail Parakhin
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA announces Rubin CPX as a dedicated prefill-specific hardware accelerator
“And like with our future generations, generations of hardware, we actually announced like with Rubin, this new accelerator that is pre-fill specific. It's called Rubin CPX.”
Kyle Kranen Mar 8, 2026 ▶ 42:04 Agent Inference at the "Speed of Light" — How NVIDIA moves like a $4.3 Trillion Startup
Assertion Supported
Jensen Huang prioritizes strategic investments in 'zero billion dollar markets'
“Jensen, He says, we're completely happy investing in zero billion dollar markets. We don't care if this creates revenue. It's important for us to know about this market. We think it will be important in the future. It can be zero billion dollars for a while.”
Kyle Kranen Mar 8, 2026 ▶ 25:14 Agent Inference at the "Speed of Light" — How NVIDIA moves like a $4.3 Trillion Startup
Assertion Supported
AMD's Composable Kernel library offers functionality similar to Nvidia's CUTLASS
“And then on the AMD side, they have this composable kernel library that does something very similar.”
Quentin Anthony Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 12:07 How Zyphra went all-in on AMD + Why Devs feel faster with AI but are slower — with Quentin Anthony
Assertion Supported
Sohmers: NVIDIA's TF32 is actually a 19-bit precision format
“NVIDIA's TF-thirty-two number format is a nineteen-bit number format. They just call it thirty-two-bit.”
Thomas Sohmers Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 27:29 ⚡️Accelerators @ 3x NVIDIA H200 perf, Made in the USA - Thomas Sohmers + Mitesh Agrawal, Positron AI
Assertion Partly supported
Swix: Nvidia RTX 4090 prices doubled in the past year
“40 and 90 prices have doubled in the last year.”
Shawn Wang Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 1:10:08 The RLVR Revolution — with Nathan Lambert (AI2, Interconnects.ai)
Assertion Supported
Ethan He: Hugging Face's sequential GEMM loop for Mixtral is inefficient
“Let's also look at the implementation of Mixtro eight by seven on Hagen-Phys transformer. You will soon notice the, in the expert operation there, You would iterate over all of the experts and compute each of the gem operations one by one. We found that this i…”
Ethan He Oct 29, 2024 ▶ 12:37 [Paper Club] Upcycling Large Language Models into Mixture of Experts
Assertion Supported
Fanelli: Singapore accounted for 15% of NVIDIA's Q3 2024 revenue
“Singapore was 15% of NVIDIA's revenue in Q three of 2024.”
Alessio Fanelli Oct 19, 2024 ▶ 42:31 Singapore: the AI Engineer Nation — with Minister Josephine Teo
Assertion Supported
Hotz: Tinygrad is about 5x slower than PyTorch on Nvidia GPUs
“The correctness for both forwards and backwards passes is there, but on Nvidia, it's about five X slower than PyTorch right now.”
George Hotz Jun 20, 2023 ▶ 21:15 Ep 18: Petaflops to the People — with George Hotz of tinycorp
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA Cosmos uses 50,000 to 60,000 tokens for five seconds of video
“Yeah, for example, like in Cosmos, I think just five seconds of video is like a 50, 50 K or a 60 K number of tokens. So like, if you do 50 seconds as a 500 K tokens, if you do longer than that, easily explode.”
Ethan He Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 56:16 Inside xAI: Building Grok Imagine in 3 Months, Videogen vs World Models, and Video Agents— Ethan He
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA chip design begins three to five years before market release
“The design process starts like- Exactly. ...three to five years before the chip gets to the market.”
Kyle Kranen Mar 8, 2026 ▶ 22:39 Agent Inference at the "Speed of Light" — How NVIDIA moves like a $4.3 Trillion Startup
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA Dynamo dynamically sizes and schedules Kubernetes prefill and decode workers
“Dynamo has a set of components that A, tell you how to scale. It tells you how many pre-fill workers and decoded workers it thinks you should have. And also provides a scheduling API for Kubernetes that allows you to actually represent and affect this scheduli…”
Kyle Kranen Mar 8, 2026 ▶ 43:57 Agent Inference at the "Speed of Light" — How NVIDIA moves like a $4.3 Trillion Startup
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA's 600M Parameter Parakeet Model Tops Speech Transcription Leaderboards
“And then Parakeet is Nvidia's new speech model, speech transcription model. That's number one on the leaderboards. And it's just like very enterprise tuned, like really, really rock solid, reliable at fairly small number of weights, like six hundred million pa…”
Kwindla Hultman Kramer May 6, 2025 ▶ 8:07 Voice AI Masterclass — Kwindla Hultman Kramer and swyx
Assertion Supported
Ben Allal: NVIDIA generated 1.9 trillion synthetic tokens for Nemotron-CC
“This is a recent paper from NVIDIA, Mnemotron CC. They took things a bit further and they generated not a few billion tokens, but 1.9 trillion tokens, which is huge.”
Loubna Ben Allal Dec 24, 2024 ▶ 8:45 Best of 2024: Synthetic Data / Smol Models, Loubna Ben Allal, HuggingFace [LS Live! @ NeurIPS 2024]
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