The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Scialom: Llama 3 405B is the best open-source model ever released
“At a high level, it's the best open source model ever. It's Better than GPT-IV. I mean, what version? But, by far, compared to the version originally released even now, I think there's maybe the last cloud Sonya FF-V and GPT-IV-Zero that are performing it.”
Thomas Scialom Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 37:43 Training Llama 2, 3 & 4: The Path to Open Source AGI — with Thomas Scialom of Meta AI
Assertion Supported
Lambert: GPT-4 achieves 80% preference labeling agreement versus 70% for humans
“Essentially, people also think that synthetic data is, like, GPT-IV is more accurate than humans at labeling preferences, so if you look at these diagrams, like, humans are about 60 to 70% agreement, or, like, that's what the models get to, and if humans are a…”
Nathan Lambert Jan 11, 2024 ▶ 48:53 The Origin and Future of RLHF: the secret ingredient for ChatGPT - with Nathan Lambert
Assertion Supported
GPT-4-level intelligence is now over 100 times cheaper than at launch
“The, like, one fact on that is that you can get intelligence at the level of GPT-IV for over a hundred times cheaper than GPT-IV was at launch right now.”
Micah Hill-Smith Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 58:55 Artificial Analysis: The Independent LLM Analysis House — with George Cameron and Micah Hill-Smith
Assertion Supported
Claude 3.5 wrote fire-and-forget code while GPT-4 used defensive programming
“Claude, for instance, the Sonnet 3.5 was very much fire and forget. It would write code in a kind of Pythonic way, just like, let it fail. Don't be careful about it. Whereas GPT four would use defensive programming, use self assertions.”
Jack Hopkins Apr 27, 2025 ▶ 16:27 ⚡️Factorio Learning Environment: the ultimate Game Agent Eval — Jack Hopkins
Assertion Supported
Swyx: Distilling GPT-4 to Mini cut costs 15x with 2% hit
“Yeah, I sat in the distillation session just now, and they showed how they distilled from four to four mini, and it was like only like a two percent hit in the performance, and 15 X cheaper.”
Shawn Wang Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 48:14 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Assertion Supported
Patel: SemiAnalysis reported GPT-4 mixture of experts architecture in January
“Just being clear, I talked about mixture of experts in January, it's just people didn't really notice it.”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 1:08 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Assertion Supported
Hu: SWE-bench scores jumped from 3% on GPT-4 RAG to 43%
“If we just use GPT-IV plus RAG, what do we get? It's, like, a measly three percent. And then up to the most recent submissions where they get up to 43%.”
Jesse Hu Oct 19, 2024 ▶ 7:40 [Paper Club] SWE-Bench [OpenAI Verified/Multimodal] + MLE-Bench with Jesse Hu
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