The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Hill-Smith: Google used unpublished 32-shot CoT to claim Gemini beat GPT-4
“Back when I'm Googled a Gemini one when I ultra and needed a number that would say it was better than GPT four. And Like, constructed I think never published, like, chain of thought examples, 32 of them in every topic in MLU to run it, to get the score.”
Micah Hill-Smith Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 8:36 Artificial Analysis: The Independent LLM Analysis House — with George Cameron and Micah Hill-Smith
Assertion Contradicted
Sohmers: Google Veo and Imagen 3 are pure autoregressive transformers, not diffusion
“A lot of things have actually been moving away from diffusion to being pure autoregressive transformers for image and video generation. So like the latest, yeah, there's a VO three and since image and three on, on Google side have been pure autoregressive movi…”
Thomas Sohmers Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 43:48 ⚡️Accelerators @ 3x NVIDIA H200 perf, Made in the USA - Thomas Sohmers + Mitesh Agrawal, Positron AI
Assertion Contradicted
Google Was Firefox's Main Code Contributor Before Launching Chrome
“And then the team that is now the Chrome team believe, and I, my, I don't know this for a fact, but I'm pretty sure Google was the main contributor to Firefox for a long time in terms of code.”
Bret Taylor Feb 11, 2025 ▶ 12:23 The AI Architect: Bret Taylor
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Patel: Google will avoid deploying local laptop models to retain control
“I don't think Google is going to deploy a model that I can run on my laptop to help me with code or help me with, you know, XYZ. They're always going to want to run it on the cloud for control.”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 26:44 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Assertion Contradicted
Google Gemini Flash-Lite ranks in top five on Galileo Agent Leaderboard
“In the, on the original leaderboard, we also have flashlight, which is, nobody talks about, I think, even now, but I think it's got a very decent score, which is, like, in the top five models. It's extremely cheap model, like, it's so dirt cheap that it makes …”
Pratik Bhavsar Jul 14, 2025 ▶ 7:50 ⚡️Ranking Agentic LLMs — Pratik Bhavsar, Galileo
Assertion Contradicted
Swyx: Gemini Flash accounts for 50% of OpenRouter requests
“Gemini Flash, according to Open Router, is now 50% of their Open Router requests.”
Shawn Wang Jan 1, 2025 ▶ 12:04 2024 Year in Review: The Big Scaling Debate, the Four Wars of AI, Top Themes and the Rise of Agents
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