The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 79 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
ChatGPT Solved Open Physics Problem Before Collaborator's Flight Landed
“We decided to start working on it using AI a little bit before Andy was scheduled to come, like the week before. And in fact, using ChatGPT, we solved the problem before he even got off the plane.”
Morris: ChatGPT could likely have been built using RNNs instead of Transformers
“And I think like, we honestly probably could have gotten this with RNNs. I know like the scaling laws paper shows that RNNs have worse curves for scaling, but probably people would have been like, I bet you could have built chat GPT with a very sophisticated R…”
Wang: Robotics funding prematurely assumes a 'ChatGPT moment' has happened
“It would probably be on the hardware side, actually, right, and the robotics sector, right, which is, it's, I don't want to say that it's not getting funding, because it's clearly it's sort of non-consensus to almost not invest in robotics at this point, but w…”
Smarter Consumer AI Models Do Not Increase User Growth or Retention
“Furthering the intelligence of models and chat GPT, a consumer product does not lead to more users or more retention. It only is really applicable to us the thin slice of users who care about very smart type queries, right?”
McCloy: AI chat queries represent higher commercial intent than Google informational searches
“In chat search people, people don't really do that. People just say, solve the problem for me. What I think is really interesting about that is, like, it's actually the highest intent. Like, it's the most valuable thing you could be doing. Because you're going…”
McCloy: ChatGPT Does Not Index or Retrieve llms.txt by Default
“I knew that there's debate about this, but I'd say the evidence is like ChatTriPT is not indexing and it's not retrieving content from LMS.txt by default.”
McCloy: ChatGPT Search Bans for Prompt Injection Are Coming
“I think it works until it stops working.
Right.
And I would say like, there's not a lot of stories of people getting banned for like Chatsby D search so far, but it's coming.”
Jack Morris: Fundamental AI science shifted to companies due to academic compute limits
“That's when I think things really started to change in terms of the types of questions you wanted to ask can't always be answered with academic resources. So a lot of the like fundamental kind of like boundary pushing and AI science moved into companies.”
Swyx predicts OpenAI will launch a $2,000 per month ChatGPT tier
“I think that 2000 dollars ChatGPT will come.”
Lambert: Startups should avoid RLHF unless it offers niche advantage
“I don't really recommend most startups to do it unless it's like going to provide them a clear competitive advantage in their kind of niche. Yeah. Because you're not going to make your model ChatGPT like better than OpenAI or anything like that.”
Royzen: Users switch to Phind when ChatGPT-4 fails on code
“What really shocks us is that a lot of the people who do that they're coming from ChatGPT. So they tried it in ChatGPT with ChatGPT-IV. It didn't work. Maybe it required like some multi-step reasoning. Maybe it required to like, Some internet context or someth…”
Swyx: Betting on transformer ASICs is safe because architectures persist
“The ChatGPT, like, GPT-III.V-ish architecture has mostly stayed the same this entire time. It's a pretty good bet, man. Like, even if there is a new, Model sometime in the future. The current workloads on existing models, like, four-oh is still being used, rig…”
Swyx: AI is too volatile for utility-style government regulation
“I think this thing is too volatile to treat as a utility, right? Like imagine if like Edison was like, you know, working on his like electrical stuff and light and Lighting and all that. And you immediately try to regulate it. Like, no, you'll probably wait 50…”
AI Proof Generation Shifts Human Scientific Burden to Automated Verification
“Now that we're in this regime where you can just get ChatGPT to tackle thousands of questions at the same time, and it will return proofs for a significant fraction of them. Now, actually the onus is back on the humans to verify all the outputs. And so, yeah, …”
Wang: AI playbook is raising capital for compute, launching apps, repeating
“You raise money for compute. You pour that, or you pour the money into compute. You get some sort of breakthrough. You funnel the breakthrough into your vertically integrated application. That could be chat GPT. That could be cloud code, you know, whatever it …”
Superhuman views OpenAI and ChatGPT as direct competitors in productivity
“Oh, the answer is like ChatGPT, or like OpenAI and superhuman are competitors. Like this is what we fight against to some extent.”
OpenAI Spent $7 Billion on Compute, With $5 Billion for R&D
“This year, OpenAI spent seven billion dollars on compute. Only two of that was for all of their inference. The remaining five was R&D. So all of ChatGPT, all eight hundred million users, all of Sora, all of like, all, all the sort of like API volume, two billi…”
Falk: ChatGPT will aggressively enter and replace design prototyping tools
“And candidly, I think that ChatGPT is going to come in and replace a lot of that because that's what they did in a GBT five demo. They were really showing that off. These things are not designed for production. It's just another reason to come to ChatGPT. So I…”
McCloy: ChatGPT user experience is vastly superior to Google search
“The experience people have of using ChatGPT versus, like, Browsing the internet, sort of the old Google 10 blue links and clicking around is like vastly more positive, you know, compared to the past.”
McCloy: ChatGPT filters out clickbait metadata in favor of descriptive information
“The metadata has been super optimized for human click through, right? So think about like clickbait, think about things that are like, you know, like Creating urgency, especially true in e-commerce, right around sales and things like that. But they're not very…”
McCloy: Clerk Achieved 6x AI Traffic Growth and 9x Lift in Conversions
“So I think the stat is like, they've seen like a six X growth in ChattoBD traffic or traffic from the ChattoBD propensity, but the common set, but they've seen a nine X lifted conversions.”
McCloy: Enterprise users are outsourcing B2B software vendor bake-offs to ChatGPT
“One specific example that takes people a little bit by surprise is, like, there are a huge number of people doing, like, B to B software bake-offs in chat to VT. You know, if you're at a big company and your boss is like, Hey, we need to buy something to solve…”
Kirkos: ChatGPT CSV charts fail to help users understand data
“Drop a CSV and chat GPT and ask it for a chart. Those aren't responsive. Those aren't interactive. And those, I don't think ultimately help people understand data better.”
Wang: ChatGPT cannot match hardware agents without an always-on recording layer
“Just being able to have wake words, like enables some form of sort of voice agent, agent features that even chat GPT can never have because they don't have the recording layer.”
Nguyen: ChatGPT Will Evolve Into an Interface That Morphs Based on User Intent
“Chat CPT evolves into this Blank interface, which can morph itself in whatever you trying, like the model should try to like derive your true intent and then modify the interface based on your intent. And then if you like writing, it should become like the mos…”
Robicheaux: 2B PaliGemma 2 Beats ChatGPT on MMVP with 47.3%
“The big result, and one of the reasons that I was really excited about this paper, is that they blow everything else away on MMVP. I mean, 47.3, sure, that's nowhere near human accuracy, which again is 94%, but for, you know, two billion language, two billion …”
Carlini: ChatGPT emitted verbatim 50+ word sequences from internet training data
“And what I can say is that the output of the model was a verbatim, at least 50 word in a row match. To some other document that appeared on the internet previously.”
Prompting ChatGPT to repeat a word indefinitely leaks verbatim training data
“One of my co-authors, Milad was working on some other random experiments, and he figured out that if you prompt ChatGPT to repeat a word forever, then it will repeat the word many, many, many times in a row, and then like explode and like just start doing rand…”
Tay: ChatGPT's release made task-specific academic NLP research obsolete
“The big thing about the ChatGPT moment of, like, twenty-twenty-two, the thing that changed drastically is, like, it completely, like, it was, like, this sharp, like, make all this work, like, kind of, like, obsolete”
Swyx: Enterprise ChatGPT implementations are just retrieval, not generative AI
“That is what people think generative AI is, but it's not super generative, really, it's just retrieval.”
Generative AI is shifting from conversational chatbots to interactive environments
“What I find most fascinating about this idea is that it shifts us away from the perspective of agents, ah, to interact with, to the perspective of environments that we want to interact with. And, ah, while arguably this agent paradigm of the chatbot is, ah, wh…”
Hsu: 60% to 70% of AI business utility comes from ChatGPT
“I think a lot of the utility in AI today like, I would probably argue 60, 70% of the utility, like, you know, businesses I found in AI is mostly via ChatGPT and across the world, too.”
Lambert: Open-source claims of ChatGPT-level performance are overblown
“I think the claims of ChatGPT level are long overblown in most of the things in open source.”
Royzen: AI code startups are ultimately competing with ChatGPT
“Really who everyone's competing with is ChatGPT which only has, like, that one web interface, and, like, ChatGPT is really the bar.”
Howard: Modern LLMs like ChatGPT still follow ULMFiT's three-step training framework
“So we generated this three-step system. So step one was train a language model on a big corpus. Step two was fine-tune a language model on a more curated corpus, and step three was further fine-tune that model on a task. And of course, that's what everybody st…”
Cheah: AI Engineers Do Not Need ML Math to Build Products
“Frankly, for an AI engineer, you don't need it. You, your main thing that you needed to do was to, frankly, just play around with ChatGPT, or all the alternatives, be aware of the alternatives, because be very mercenary, swap out to Cloudia if it's better for …”
Hotz: RLHF models adopt customer support personalities
“I don't like the RLHF models. I don't like the tuned versions of them. I think that they become, you take on the personality of a customer support agent, right?”
Nathan: OpenAI limits sub-agent UI visibility to prevent user overwhelm
“There's another, you know, iteration of this where like you can see exactly what they're doing and things like that, which I think is like, you know, could verge on like overwhelming with information. And so this is like the deliberate trade-off that we've mad…”
Anderson: 20% of pre-ChatGPT global compute went to simulating water
“Once I did an estimate, I think pre like ChatGPT, something like 20% of the world's computing power just went to simulating water.”
Weil: True AI acceleration requires native workflow integration, not copy-pasting
“If there was a lesson from what happened over the last year with software engineering, it's that Part of the acceleration from, ah, in software engineering came from better models, but part of it also came from the fact that you now have, ah, AI embedded into …”
Yang: Evaluating Human-AI Code Interaction Requires Compelling Products or Simulators
“From an academic standpoint, it feels like there's two difficult approaches to resolving that. Either you build, like, a really compelling product, like Elmarina, that people have people use consistently, which is, I mean, really tricky in and of itself. Or yo…”
Houssier: Grammarly captures cross-app context that ChatGPT cannot access
“Grammarly knows, basically, where you, I say, you're switching from Google Doc to Salesforce. To LinkedIn, and now you're writing an email. So we have this augmented context even more, so like much more precise compared to something like ChatGPT, for example. …”
Goyal: AI Coding Has the Most Product Market Fit After ChatGPT
“The first is it is the use case that has the most product market fit in AI, I think, other than ChatGPT.”
Sands: Over 1M Shopify merchants and Salesforce joining ChatGPT checkout
“There's over one million Shopify merchants coming soon, including some really big ones like Glossier and Viore.
this week, Salesforce announced that they're also in”
Sands: Walmart and Sam's Club signed up for ChatGPT Agentic Commerce Protocol
“In the last couple of days, Walmart and Sands Club have just signed up to also make their inventory purchasable
Through ChatGPT and the Agentic Commerce Protocol, which, like, I don't think that there is a bigger signal on a big retailer being up for it than W…”
Apple Siri routes requests based on the user's ChatGPT subscription tier
“If you sign into your ChatGPT account the Siri integration will actually use your subscription status to decide what type of model to use when it passes things over to ChatGPT. And so if you're you know just a free user you get, you know, the free model. But i…”
Rajpal: Pure ChatGPT test conversations lack diversity and realism
“Compared to, let's say, you were asking, like, ChatGPT to generate, you know, these, like, conversations for you. They all kind of have that ChatGPT vibe, and this ends up looking, you know, very diverse and very grounded in, like, your use case and your data.”
Palazzolo: News aggregators and summarizers are being displaced by AI and influencers
“If you're a company that's more known for, like, summarizing, like, the daily news, or even, like, having some sort of opinion or analysis, like, now that, you know, people on, like, X who are doing that, or you can just use, like, ChatDBT to send you summary …”