The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-3 Benchmark Will Remain Unbeaten For 3 Years
“And then V three, our durability estimate for that is three years. And that's what we're aiming for is 36 months for V three.”
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-2 Will Not Be Beaten For 12 Months
“My guess is it's not going to be beat for the next 12 months.”
Kamradt: Human-Built Benchmarks Prevent AI From Reverse-Engineering Generation Code
“And the problem with that is that we don't want to incentivize AI to derive the program that made the game. Right? And so if we continue to have humans make the game, then the AI is incentivized to try to reverse engineer the G inside of humans, and that's kin…”
Kamradt: No AI Has Beaten Any ARC-AGI-3 Game Level Yet
“It's still true. We have yet to have an AI successfully beat any level on any of these games. So it hasn't happened yet.”
Kamradt Announces ARC-AGI-3 Will Feature 100 Novel Game Environments
“We're coming out with RKGI three. And what this is gonna be is it's gonna be a series of a hundred different novel environments, or you could simply call them a hundred different novel games that we're making ourselves.”
Kamradt: ARC Prize Measures Intelligence via Energy and Data Efficiency
“So humans, they do not have an internet's worth of training data in their training data, but yet they can still do generally intelligent things. Whereas we're not seeing that with AI right now. So energy and training data are the two denominators that we use f…”
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-3 Preview Launches Five Games
“So as a part of the preview, we're launching five games. Now, three of them are going to be public on day one, and two of them are going to be private.”
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-4 Will Expand Beyond 2D 64x64 Grids
“So without knowing what the exact answer is, I do know that RKGI four or five or whatever it may be, will need to allow us to have more axes of freedom that are above a two D 64 by 64 type of grid that comes from there.”
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-3 Targets 120 Benchmark Games by Q1 2026
“Our goal is to come out with a 120 by Q one of next year.”
Kamradt: Mike Knoop Put Up $1M for ARC Prize Bounty
“Mike actually put he put up a million dollars of his own money and said, Hey, I'm going to put a bounty. So for anybody who can beat this benchmark, they're going to get a million dollars.”
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-3 Features Large Percentage of Non-Agent Puzzle Games
“We have a requirement that games must be novel from each other. We have
A large percentage of games that are non-agent based. So think of it as like solitaire or connect four or like Simon or memory or something like that. Those are non-agent based games.”