why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
AMD has completely caught up with Nvidia on AI software
“So they caught up on hardware. Now they've caught up on software. Not a lot of people have sort of discovered that they've caught up on software and we're kind of capitalizing on that.”
Assertion Supported
AMD MI300X outperforms Nvidia H100 on FlashAttention-2 and memory-bound workloads
“We found that it's great for flash attention to specifically, we were able to be H-one hundred. We also found that like the less time you spend in like dense compute, like the less time you spend in tensor cores specifically, or less time you spend in lower bi…”
Opinion
AMD GPUs perform horribly on Windows for generative AI tasks
“AMD works horribly on Windows. Like, on Linux, it works fine. It's lower than the price equivalent NVIDIA GPU. But it works, like, you can use it, generate images, everything works. On Linux, on Windows, You might have a hard time”
Opinion
Chintala: Nvidia's primary competitive moat is NVLink interconnect, not GPU silicon
“The mode that Nvidia has right now, I feel like, is that they're, they have the interconnect that no one else has. Like, AMD GPUs are pretty good. I'm sure there's very silicon that is not bad at all, but, like, the interconnect like, NVLink is uniquely awesom…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: AMD MI300 costs more than twice as much to manufacture as Nvidia H100
“In the case of amd their manufacturing costs for mi-thruhundred or more than twice that of h-one hundred and it only beats h-one hundred by a little bit from you know performance stuff i've seen”
Prediction Held up
Patel: AMD MI300 will beat Nvidia H100 on paper within a quarter
“AMD. They have a GPU. MI 300. That will be better than the H 100 in a quarter or so. Now, that says nothing about how hard it is to program it, but at least hardware-wise, on paper, it's better.”
Disclosure
Hotz: AMD CEO Lisa Su sent pre-release ROCm 5.6 to fix panics
“Lisa Sue reached out, connected with a whole bunch of different people. They sent me a pre-release version of Rock M 5.6. They told me you can't release it, which I'm like, okay, Why do you care? But they say they're going to release it by the end of the month…”
Opinion
Lie: AMD, Trainium, and TPU are all trying to build a better Nvidia Rubin
“AMD, Tranium, in many ways TPU, like all of these in my mind are all trying to build a better Reuben, right? And there's a huge amount of value in that.”
Disclosure
Zyphra moves its entire model training cluster to AMD hardware
“We recently moved all of our training cluster over to AMD. So we're really going all in on AMD ecosystem.”
Insight
Chintala: Hyperscalers build custom silicon to exploit vertical workload efficiencies
“Each large company has a sufficient enough set of verticalized workloads that have a pattern to them that, say, a more generic accelerator like an NVIDIA or an AMD GPU does not exploit. So there is some level of power efficiency that you're leaving on the tabl…”
Assertion Supported
AMD's Composable Kernel library offers functionality similar to Nvidia's CUTLASS
“And then on the AMD side, they have this composable kernel library that does something very similar.”
Assertion Supported
AMD MI300X GEMM performance increased from 400 to 650 TFLOPS via software
“So when MI 300 X first dropped, if you run like an MLP gem or something, you would get like 400 T flops. Now that number is, you know, more like six, 606 107 650 or so just in like the gem back ends themselves.”
Assertion Supported
Sohmers: AMD's PyTorch fork lagged official releases by 6-9 months
“And AMD had their own separate you know, non-mainline PyTorch distribution for years. That was always six to nine months behind any new PyTorch releases.”
Disclosure
Modular will soon launch support for AMD MI300 and MI325 GPUs
“We're about to launch our AMD and my 303 25 support. That'll be a big deal for the industry.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hotz: Consumer AMD GPUs lack peer-to-peer support
“If you have a consumer AMD GPU, they don't support peer to peer.”
Assertion Supported
AMD funded community DeepSeek kernel development through the GPU Mode Discord
“AMD's actually done this. Like there's some deep seek, like through GPU modes, discord, there have been some like deep seek kernels that they say you have, you know, guaranteed access to compute for, write them.”