Noah Smith

Economics Writer & Publisher, Noahpinion · 1 appearance on the record.

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authorjournalistacademic@Noahpinion ↗noahpinion.blog ↗

Noah Smith is an economics writer and publisher of the Substack newsletter Noahpinion. He previously served as an opinion columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and as an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University.

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1 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted how the 1 claim stands · each chip opens the sources

1 assertion · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertion are the 1 claim: statements the public record can support or contradict. 1 is resolved. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Noah argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Smith: Success rate of large powers invading smaller states has dropped

“They fail a lot more now than they used to. The success rate of taking places over has gone way down.”

Noah Smith May 18, 2026 ▶ 1:55:41 FPV Drones -The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion

What they said1 Episodes1

Everything Noah Smith said on Latent Space that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →