The Calls

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Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

0held up → 1didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →
0%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Shawn Wang (7)Diego Bachman (5)Nathan Lambert (4)Dylan Patel (4)Doug O'Laughlin (3)Anjney Midha (3)Thomas Sohmers (2)Soumith Chintala (2)Samuel Colvin (2)Priscilla Chan (2)Pratyush Maini (2)Michelle Pokrass (2)
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today Sep

The record (1) every resolved claim →

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sohmers: NVIDIA Blackwell memory bandwidth efficiency will be lower than Hopper
“All indications are, even though they, you know, more than doubled the theoretical memory bandwidth going from Hopper to Blackwell, the actual percentage of theoretical that you can achieve is, again, going to be less than the previous generation”
Thomas Sohmers Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 14:53 ⚡️Accelerators @ 3x NVIDIA H200 perf, Made in the USA - Thomas Sohmers + Mitesh Agrawal, Positron AI
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