The Calls

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Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

3held up → 0didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →

100%of resolved predictions held up

Everyone Shawn Wang (7)Diego Bachman (5)Nathan Lambert (4)Dylan Patel (4)Doug O'Laughlin (3)Anjney Midha (3)Thomas Sohmers (2)Soumith Chintala (2)Samuel Colvin (2)Priscilla Chan (2)Pratyush Maini (2)Michelle Pokrass (2)

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today 20252026 AugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 1 assessed early →

The record (3) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up

Lambert: Labs will surely use parallel-compute models to generate synthetic data

“Well, I bet people, I mean, they surely will use these for synthetic data. It's just like the marginal gain on synthetic data is always very high.”

Nathan Lambert Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 50:22 The RLVR Revolution — with Nathan Lambert (AI2, Interconnects.ai)

Prediction Held up

Lambert: Practitioners Will Adopt Constitutional AI for Preferences in 2024

“I think in twenty-twenty-four at some point people will start doing things like constitutional AI for preferences.”

Nathan Lambert Jan 11, 2024 ▶ 51:25 The Origin and Future of RLHF: the secret ingredient for ChatGPT - with Nathan Lambert

Prediction Held up

Lambert: More DPO models will emerge than any other method

“I expect to see more DPO models than anything else in the next six months.”

Nathan Lambert Jan 11, 2024 ▶ 1:15:07 The Origin and Future of RLHF: the secret ingredient for ChatGPT - with Nathan Lambert

The Calls

The record (3) every resolved claim →

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