compute

17 statements across 14 episodes · 6 bullish · 0 bearish · 14 people on the record · first statement Mar 6, 2024 by Soumith Chintala · across every show →

Everything said about compute, oldest first

Mar 6, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chintala: No AI company currently feels they have sufficient compute
“If you don't have enough compute, you figure out how to make do with smaller models, but like, no one as of today, I think, would feel like they have enough compute. I don't think, like, I've heard any company within the AI space be like, oh yeah, like, we fee…”
Soumith Chintala Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 49:43 Open Source AI is AI we can Trust — with Soumith Chintala of Meta AI
Apr 11, 2024 positive
Opinion
Stuhlmüller: Trading inference compute for answer accuracy is undervalued in AI
“Being able to invest more or less compute into getting more or less accurate answers is, I think, one of the core things we care about, and that I think is currently undervalued in the AI space.”
Andreas Stuhlmüller Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 46:03 Supervise the Process of AI Research — with Jungwon Byun and Andreas Stuhlmüller of Elicit
Jul 5, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Tay: Underlying AI research principles have not changed much beyond compute scale
“Fundamentally, I don't think, like, the, like, the stuff has actually, like, the underlying principles of research hasn't really changed that much, except for, like, compute.”
Yi Tay Jul 5, 2024 ▶ 4:52 The 10,000x Yolo Researcher Metagame — with Yi Tay of Reka
Nov 2, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Distilling sCM Requires Roughly Twice the Compute of Teacher Training
“One thing that they said in the paper, it's not here, but that that it, they, it takes about two X to compute to train the This consistency model from as a as a distillation of whatever they distilled from. So approximately twice the compute.”
RJ Honicky Nov 2, 2024 ▶ 44:50 [Paper Club] Intro to Diffusion Models and OpenAI sCM: Simple, Stable, Scalable Consistency Models
Dec 21, 2024 neutral
Insight
Guo: Software has returned to a hardware era driven by compute optimization
“We're back in the hardware era where people are acquiring and managing and optimizing compute. And I think that will really matter in terms of capability and companies.”
Sarah Guo Dec 21, 2024 ▶ 24:38 The State of AI Startups in 2024 [LS Live @ NeurIPS]
Jan 10, 2025 neutral
Insight
Bryk: Comprehensive web search requires variable compute scaled to query complexity
“What you basically have to do is you have to put more compute into the query, into the search, until you get the full comprehensiveness. And I think there's an interesting point here, which is that not all queries are made equal. Some queries, just like this b…”
Will Bryk Jan 10, 2025 ▶ 12:22 Beating Google at Search with Neural PageRank and $5M of H200s — with Will Bryk of Exa.ai
Apr 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Conrad: Test-time inference will significantly expand inference compute demand
“The thing I do feel reasonably confident about saying is that the test time inference is probably going to quite significantly expand the amount of compute that was used for inference.”
Evan Conrad Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 31:37 SF Compute: Commoditizing Compute
Apr 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
Conrad: VCs trading compute for equity is credit risk arbitrage
“And so the hack of a VC or some capital partner offering equity for compute is always some arbitrage on the credit risk.”
Evan Conrad Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 39:56 SF Compute: Commoditizing Compute
Aug 15, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Brockman: Most AI compute will shift from training to inference
“We're going to move from a world where most of the compute is training the model as we've deployed these models more, you know, more of the compute goes to inferencing them and actually using them.”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 14:13 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Aug 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brockman: Post-AGI humans will survive without work, but compute will differentiate capability
“And so I think that the question of exactly how, you know, if you don't do work, do you survive? I think the answer will be yes. You'll have plenty of material, your material needs met. But I think the question of Can you do more? Can you have not just generat…”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 1:06:26 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Aug 29, 2025 bullish
Insight
Morcos: Better data improves AI performance per dollar by orders of magnitude
“Making the data better can be a massive compute multiplier. It can change the performance per dollar by orders of magnitude.”
Ari Morcos Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 14:37 Better Data is All You Need — Ari Morcos, Datology
Dec 30, 2025 neutral
Insight
Nair: RLHF Is a Side Branch Because Compute Cannot Be Scaled
“I think human feedback is kind of like a bit of like a side branch, because you can't really pour that much compute Into it, right? It's like, you take the model, and you, like, elicit it to be a little bit better in terms of personality”
Ashvin Nair Dec 30, 2025 ▶ 23:16 [State of RL/Reasoning] IMO/IOI Gold, OpenAI o3/GPT-5, and Cursor Composer — Ashvin Nair, Cursor
Feb 27, 2026
Insight
Becker: AI Progress Remains Highly Continuous Across Compute Scales
“You know, in some ways, I think the story of Time Horizon is that progress has been remarkably continuous over, over so many years, so many orders of magnitude of compute and effective compute.”
Joel Becker Feb 27, 2026 ▶ 14:55 Measuring Exponential Trends Rising (in AI) — Joel Becker, METR
Feb 27, 2026
Insight
Becker: Algorithmic Progress in AI Is Strictly a Function of Compute
“The suggestion in this paper is that if you think that algorithmic progress, you know, that, that is coming up with the transformer, coming up with RLHF, you know, MOEs, all of this stuff, better learning rate schedules is, is is itself a function of compute b…”
Joel Becker Feb 27, 2026 ▶ 35:18 Measuring Exponential Trends Rising (in AI) — Joel Becker, METR
Jun 1, 2026
Insight
Ethan He: Coding Models Shift Research Bottlenecks Back to Compute
“Compute might become a bottleneck again, because previously, like if you want to train a new model, say you want to generate new synthetic data and then, or write a new algorithm, it might take a few weeks. And during that period of time, you don't, you might …”
Ethan He Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 9:14 Inside xAI: Building Grok Imagine in 3 Months, Videogen vs World Models, and Video Agents— Ethan He
Jun 3, 2026 positive
Opinion
Nadella confirms intelligence scaling logarithmically with compute still largely holds true
“This, you know, this crude way of saying it is intelligence is log of compute kind of works.”
Satya Nadella Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 5:45 Satya Nadella on AI: @NoPriorsPodcast x Latent Space Crossover Special at Microsoft Build 2026
Jul 11, 2026 positive
Insight
Perszyk: AI labs should spend as much on environments as compute
“We should be thinking about spending as much on the environments as on the compute and the data, because the environments literally shape the, what intelligence can emerge.”
Danielle Perszyk Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 21:05 Why AI Agents Don't Actually Understand You — Danielle Perszyk, Amazon AGI Lab
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