The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cialdini: Humans Are Only Species with Concept of Future Obligation
“I mean, for the first time in evolutionary history, all these species, besides us, never had the concept of future obligation to return what has been provided to them.”
Cialdini: McDonald's Families Bought 25% More Food When Given Balloons First
“The other half, each kid got the balloon as they entered. Those families bought 25% more food because they had been given something first.”
Cialdini: Reciprocal concessions require an initial rejection, not just contrast
“If we include the contrast in our presentation, you can go anywhere from giving six months for two years, every six weeks for two years, or you could just give to tomorrow. That doesn't produce the effect to the same degree. You have to get them to say no to S…”
Cialdini: Tailored Free Gifts Boosted Fast-Food Purchases by 24%
“Researchers did a study. People came in, and one-third of them just went to the to the counter and ordered their food. Another third of them came in and were given a very attractive key ring with a beautiful medallion on it by the management. Oh, thank you for…”
Cialdini: 6,700-Site Study Found Scarcity of Supply Top Conversion Driver
“There was a study of 6700 E-commerce sites and A-B tests that were done for various components inside those sites. Does the site have free delivery? Does the site have a search function? Does every appeal end with a call to action? They had 29 of those. The to…”
Cialdini: People like those who explicitly express liking them
“It's not just that we like people who are like us. We like people who do like us and say so.”
Cialdini: Influence Highlights Existing Principles While Manipulation Counterfeits Them
“And for me, influence involves pointing to them where they naturally exist. That is, informing people into assent by simply raising the profile of that principle in one way or another in your communication. Manipulation involves the fabrication or manufacture …”
Cialdini: Upfront Value Pitching Products Is Seen as a Sales Device
“Not based on our product or service. If it's designed to tell them how to buy us, or why they should, then it's seen as a device, not a gift.”
Cialdini: People Overpay Favors to Avoid the Stigma of Free-Riding
“We are obligated to give back at the same level, but if the only thing we can do is to give back at a higher level, we will, to avoid the burden of feeling like a cheater, like a free rider, like a taker, an ingrate.”
Cialdini: Small Favors Fade Rapidly While Large Favors Endure for Years
“People are more willing to say yes to a request for something in return, the closer to the favor we've provided. However, when they have given us very large favors, those things stay in our consciousness. And years later, we will be willing to give back to the…”
Cialdini: Cuban Missile Crisis Ended via Secret Reciprocal Missile Trade
“It turns out that there was a secret deal that was made between Kennedy and Khrushchev. It was a reciprocal concessions deal. Kennedy said, if you will remove your missiles from Cuba, we'll remove ours from Turkey that are pointed at you.”
Cialdini: Reciprocity dictates that manipulative exploiters should be exploited
“Treat it as a trick, and if that's the case, Show them the door and keep the fire extinguisher because by the rule of reciprocation, exploiters should be exploited.”
Cialdini: Sharing commonalities dropped email negotiation deadlocks from 30% to 6%
“In that case,
Stymied negotiations went from 30% to six percent.
When the researchers analyzed the data, it wasn't the amount of personalizing information that had been sent across, it was how many commonalities were in those accounts.”
Cialdini: Opower prevented 30 billion pounds of CO2 via neighbor comparisons
“Opower has, is responsible for 30 billion pounds of carbon dioxide that have not been released into the environment because people have reduced their energy conservation by just knowing what their comparable neighbors are doing and saying, well, then I can do …”
Cialdini: Fake reviews rely on personal stories and verbs instead of nouns
“It turns out there's particular things that allow us to know when the review is phony. Do they use a lot of personal stories? That means they're not giving you Evidence of the features of the product or service because they don't really know. They've just been…”
Cialdini: 4.2 to 4.7 star ratings drive higher conversions than 5.0
“There was a great study that looked at which star rating on a product review was most likely to produce a conversion from a prospect to a customer. It wasn't a five-point rating. It was a range between 4.2 and 4.7. People were on to the tricksters who were loa…”
Cialdini: Moving expert testimonials to top of Bose ad increased sales 15%
“I know that when Bose Acoustics we were working with them, when they added to an ad for a product that they had called the Bose Wave Music System A line of testifiers right at the start of the ad, all over to the left, just as you read the ad, and up at the to…”
Cialdini: Trending Social Proof Persuades More Than Static Market Share
“There's a new research that shows that there's a particularly powerful form of social proof that isn't just a large number of people have done this, but there's a trend to that number. It used to be that last year, we had 30% market share. Six months ago, it w…”
Cialdini: Asking 'Will you call to cancel?' reduced restaurant no-shows by 67%
“It was a study done in Chicago with a restaurant owner named Gordon Sinclair. It's a famous restaurant called Gordon's there in Chicago. And he's since retired, but while he was operating, he had a problem. No shows. People who would call, they make a reservat…”
Cialdini: Retreating to smaller request raised blood donation compliance to 55%
“We go from 33% of people who agree to give the next day, right, if that's the only thing we ask them, to 55%. If we retreat to that, We make a concession. Oh, so you can't do the two-year thing that we would most like, but would you do this one thing? So now w…”
Cialdini: Joe Girard averaged six vehicle sales per day
“Joe Girard, he was the world's greatest salesperson, according to the Guinness Book of Records, for like 12 years in a row.
He sold automobiles, Chevrolets, from a dealership in Detroit, in the Detroit area.
He sold an average of six
Cars and trucks a day, eve…”
Cialdini: Base purchase decisions on deal terms, not liking the salesperson
“Because you have to recognize, I'm gonna be driving that Toyota off the lot, not the salesperson. It doesn't matter how much I like the salesperson. I can be driving the car. So you have to make your choice based on the favorable features of the deal, not of t…”
Cialdini: Uncertainty drives people to copy peers rather than look inward
“When we're uncertain, we don't look inside ourselves for the answer. All we see is the lack of confidence. So we look outside, and one place we look is to what the people around us, like us, have been doing, or are currently doing in a particular situation.”
Cialdini: Labeling dishes 'most popular' boosted restaurant orders by 13% to 20%
“Those items that got the asterisk then became purchased 13 to 20% more frequently. So what did the asterisk represent? It wasn't what we normally see when there are little asterisks next to items on the menu, like this is a specialty of the house, or this is w…”
Cialdini: Reframing Bose Ad Headline Around FOMO Increased Sales 45%
“What we did was to change the word new to hear what you've been missing. The idea of missing out says, no time for waiting. No, no, I have to get this. I don't want to miss it. I don't want to miss out on this great thing, right? That change produced a 45% inc…”
Cialdini: Managers should ask employees for explicit public commitments on deadlines
“Anytime you're running a meeting and you've given members of your team tasks to perform, And complete before the next meeting. Don't let anybody out of that room until you ask the question, will you be able to complete this by our next meeting? And pause. If t…”
Cialdini: Defend against consistency bias by asking if new data would alter initial choice
“When we encounter a new piece of information, Relative to a decision or a choice that we've made, you know, and that we get a chance to change, we need to say, if I knew this when I first made my choice, if that was part of this decision, would I have made the…”
Cialdini: Invoking shared student identity increased campus charity donations by 400%
“Researchers asked a young woman, college age woman, to stand on a heavily trafficked part of campus and ask people to donate to a good cause. I think it was the United Way. And she was getting some contributions. If she said Before she made the request, one th…”