The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Natural gas produces more net global warming than coal
“Natural gas actually produces more global warming in almost every case than coal.”
Driving a Tesla on the US East Coast actively hurts the climate
“If you drive a Tesla and you live in the East Coast of the United States, statistically speaking, you're hurting the climate, not helping it.”
Air Force bias favors human pilots over superior combat drones
“It's been true for a long time that humans are the weakest part of a fighter jet. You should use drones. You should totally use drones. But the Air Force, which is composed entirely of pilots or former pilots, hated that idea. Yeah. But drones are here to stay…”
The world will inevitably experience a major bioterrorism event
“So I think we'll see a bioterrorism event someday.”
Global temperatures will rise for a century even if emissions stop
“It turns out if you stopped all emissions on day one, the climate will continue to drift, drift upwards for about a hundred years. I have written a bunch of papers on global warming. I've done this calculation. Other people have done this calculation. You know…”
Modern high-speed trains in Europe and Asia effectively operate autonomously
“Well, many modern train systems are autonomous for all intents and purposes. They will have humans on board as a safety or a backup feature, but when you have modern trains, by which I don't mean any train in the United States, I'm afraid, but if you have the …”
First-year methane warming impact is 120 times higher than CO2
“Methane, on the first year you spill it, it's a 120 times higher global warming impact than CO₂.”
Emitted atmospheric carbon dioxide persists for roughly 20,000 years
“So, when you emit CO₂, it stays in the atmosphere for a really long time. Thousands of years. Tens of thousands of years. People argue, but you wouldn't be totally wrong by saying there was a 20,000 year lifespan.”
Myhrvold left a postdoc with Stephen Hawking to build a startup
“Took a leave of absence to work on a project I had started in graduate school with some friends. And that project turned into a software company, and I became the CEO of the company. And Then Microsoft bought the company, and I was at Microsoft.”