The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Marks: The ongoing U.S. recovery will become the longest in history
“So my guess is that this recovery will set a record for the longest recovery in history. Because of the slowness and the absence of excesses.”
Howard Marks Mar 5, 2019 ▶ 20:17 #53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
Assertion Supported
Marks: US Consumers, Not Chinese Exporters, Pay US Import Tariffs
“Chinese don't pay tariffs. Tariffs are paid by consumers of goods. We have collected billions in tariffs from US consumers of Chinese goods.”
Howard Marks Mar 5, 2019 ▶ 35:37 #53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
Assertion Supported
Marks: US lost 24M jobs to productivity gains versus 3M to China
“The point is that we have probably lost twenty-four million jobs to increasing productivity over the last 40 years compared to three million that went to China. And it shows you the scope of the problem and the location of the problem. The problem is not China…”
Howard Marks Mar 5, 2019 ▶ 54:44 #53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marks: AI developers will thrive while displaced workers face dystopian hardship
“The people who can develop the personless bookstore or the robot will be in great demand, and the people who can create artificial intelligence will be in great demand and very valuable, and they'll all live in a small community just south of San Francisco. An…”
Howard Marks Mar 5, 2019 ▶ 59:11 #53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
Assertion Supported
Marks: Oaktree achieved 16-17% distressed debt returns over 30 years without leverage
“And, you know, we have a record in distressed debt of, I think, 16 or 17% a year for 30 years without using any leverage.”
Howard Marks Mar 5, 2019 ▶ 13:16 #53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
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