why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Almost all Filterbuy senior hires fled miserable PE-backed firms
“Almost every major person that I've hired at management level has come from A company that was owned by a private equity company, and they absolutely hated it, and they were looking for, you know, a different path.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2035
Filterbuy will reach $1 billion in revenue within ten years
“In the next five to 10 years, I intend to take that to a billion dollars plus.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Filterbuy captures 25% to 33% of Amazon furnace filter sales
“Between one and four and one and three filters purchased in the furnace filter category on Amazon is one of ours.”
Assertion Contradicted
70% of all air filters are purchased for commercial settings
“70% of air filtration is actually commercial. And so, 70% of air filters that are purchased are purchased for a commercial setting.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
No air filter competitor matches Filterbuy's vertically integrated scale
“There are a lot of manufacturers of air filters. There are a lot of, you know, retailers and distributors of air filters, but there's nobody at least at our scale that does the whole thing from, you know, raw material to effectively in delivery.”
Assertion Supported
Typical good HVAC service businesses operate at 15-20% net margins
“A typical HVAC service business operates at about a 15 to 20% net margin is what you'd find most, most good HVAC services business, businesses operate at.”
Assertion Supported
HVAC customer acquisition costs average $500 for AC replacements
“Customer acquisition costs in the HVAC service space is very high. I mean you may be paying 500 dollars for a new customer on average if you're looking for a replacement or whatnot of an AC unit”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Heacock lost $4.5M on his first $3.5M acquisition
“My first acquisition, I Lost four and a half million dollars. And you know, that, and that was on a, you know, three and a half million dollar purchase price, so we managed to lose more than we paid for the business, you know, in trying to fix it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy generated $70 million in revenue in 2019
“In 2019, we did about seventy million dollars of revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy will reach roughly $250 million in revenue in 2024
“And, you know, now in 20, 24, we'll do about two hundred fifty million dollars of revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy needed four years to beat wholesaler manufacturing costs
“It really took me three to four years to get to the point where we could manufacture a product profitably. And what I mean by that is until that three or four year period, it would have been cheaper for me to buy the product we were selling from a large manufa…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy makes air filters for $2 and sells them for $12
“We manufacture an air filter for about two dollars and sell it on average for 12.”
Assertion Supported
Filterbuy launches in 505 Walmart stores
“We just launched in 505 Walmarts and really have a big retail strategy going forward.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy lost $2 million on Prime Day due to an Amazon glitch
“We had a big Prime deal that was running, and by some glitch of the system I got a call at three o'clock in the morning from someone at Amazon that our deal was not running, and they were looking at fixing it. I got up, started monitoring it, and by nine o'clo…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy has sold to roughly eight million unique US residences
“We have sold to Somewhere around eight million unique residences across the country.”