why aren't all 43 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Brands refusing to sell on Amazon are incredibly naive
“I think anybody that kiss themselves and says, oh, you know, I'm too good to sell on Amazon or I want to ignore it is just incredibly naive.”
Opinion
Big platforms unknowingly subsidize 3M's online air filter pricing
“In my opinion that a lot of these big companies actually subsidize companies like three M maybe unknowingly to compete on price on, on online on some of these products because The economics of shipping them and putting them through their distribution networks …”
Insight
Disproportionate success requires obsession because competitors are obsessed
“Yeah, I mean, I think if you want to do anything big, you have to be obsessed, because if not, you're competing with somebody who is. And, you know, it's completely okay not to be obsessed. I mean, there's, and not to be super driven, or, like, there's no Ther…”
Insight
Founders must personally build operating systems for novel businesses
“You as an entrepreneur have to really understand your business if you want to be able to scale and do anything big. And it's almost impossible, in my opinion, especially when you're smaller, to hire somebody that That's going to build the systems that you need…”
Insight
Competitors outsourcing core functions will struggle against hands-on founders
“I think the fact that I understand our finance function, I understand our marketing function. I understand our manufacturing and operations function. I understand our shipping function. All with a great level of detail puts me in a position that if you want to…”
Insight
Companies should hire for proven problem-solving over aspirational potential
“I think that I've made the mistake historically of hiring aspirationally when I think that you're much better off, or at least I'm much better off, Hiring somebody that's already solved the problem that I've already noticed I need to solve.”
Insight
Companies must fire high performers who violate core values
“If you have somebody that maybe is a high performer, but is clearly not consistent with your values, you have to be willing to part ways with them, even if that's going to be tough for a while for your company.”
Insight
Converting Amazon shoppers to direct DTC is a fool's errand
“Early on, I would spend some time thinking about that, and honestly, I realized, at least in our case, and maybe everybody's different, it's a fool's errand. I mean, it's like there's a reason why customers choose to buy on Amazon.”
Opinion
Most D2C brands just outsource manufacturing and 3PL fulfillment
“Basically every direct to consumer quote unquote brand that I'm aware of is effectively You know, manufacturing their product with an, with a overseas contract manufacturer putting their name on it, and maybe they're doing some innovation in the product itself…”
Insight
Working for others prevents building true entrepreneurial confidence
“When you're working for somebody else or relying on other people to
You know, pay you or validate you that you never really get the confidence that you can build as an entrepreneur when you're kind of out there making things happen on your own.”
Insight
Unearned wealth traps people in a fearful scarcity mindset
“When people get money that they maybe didn't deserve or they didn't earn, then they're forever living in a scarcity mindset because they're afraid of losing it. Because if you have something that you covet that you have no way of getting back if you lose it, t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Almost all Filterbuy senior hires fled miserable PE-backed firms
“Almost every major person that I've hired at management level has come from A company that was owned by a private equity company, and they absolutely hated it, and they were looking for, you know, a different path.”
Insight
Overcome lifestyle creep by adding value, not cutting expenses
“To me, the answer isn't living a lower lifestyle in those cases. The answer is going out and figuring out a way to add value to be able to deserve that lifestyle.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2035
Filterbuy will reach $1 billion in revenue within ten years
“In the next five to 10 years, I intend to take that to a billion dollars plus.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Filterbuy captures 25% to 33% of Amazon furnace filter sales
“Between one and four and one and three filters purchased in the furnace filter category on Amazon is one of ours.”
Assertion Contradicted
70% of all air filters are purchased for commercial settings
“70% of air filtration is actually commercial. And so, 70% of air filters that are purchased are purchased for a commercial setting.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
No air filter competitor matches Filterbuy's vertically integrated scale
“There are a lot of manufacturers of air filters. There are a lot of, you know, retailers and distributors of air filters, but there's nobody at least at our scale that does the whole thing from, you know, raw material to effectively in delivery.”
Insight
Truly successful people rely on obsession, not willpower
“Willpower is not a strategy. You know, that's why, kind of going back to your obsession point, the people that I think are really successful are obsessed, because when you're obsessed with something, you're not, like, you don't need willpower, because it's jus…”
Assertion Supported
Typical good HVAC service businesses operate at 15-20% net margins
“A typical HVAC service business operates at about a 15 to 20% net margin is what you'd find most, most good HVAC services business, businesses operate at.”
Assertion Supported
HVAC customer acquisition costs average $500 for AC replacements
“Customer acquisition costs in the HVAC service space is very high. I mean you may be paying 500 dollars for a new customer on average if you're looking for a replacement or whatnot of an AC unit”
Disclosure
Heacock has no intention to sell or flip Filterbuy
“And, you know, I have no intention to sell my businesses. I think there's a world in which we may go public one day way down the road. But other than that, like I've, I'm in it for the long haul, and I don't have any intention to buy it and, you know, flip it,…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Heacock lost $4.5M on his first $3.5M acquisition
“My first acquisition, I Lost four and a half million dollars. And you know, that, and that was on a, you know, three and a half million dollar purchase price, so we managed to lose more than we paid for the business, you know, in trying to fix it.”
Disclosure
Heacock chose building Filterbuy over a multi-hundred-million-dollar retirement
“You know, about two years ago, and really when I started working with Dr. Gurner, I was, you know, having a little bit of a crisis of self in that, you know, what do I want out of life? I could sell the business and you know, have more money than I could ever …”
Insight
Business success evolves rather than following a master plan
“Well, I think that people like to look back and, you know, kind of idolize and act as if there's, you know, there was a plan, it was a plan all along, when oftentimes it's you know, evolution of skills and an evolution of your thinking.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy generated $70 million in revenue in 2019
“In 2019, we did about seventy million dollars of revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy will reach roughly $250 million in revenue in 2024
“And, you know, now in 20, 24, we'll do about two hundred fifty million dollars of revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy needed four years to beat wholesaler manufacturing costs
“It really took me three to four years to get to the point where we could manufacture a product profitably. And what I mean by that is until that three or four year period, it would have been cheaper for me to buy the product we were selling from a large manufa…”
Disclosure
Filterbuy is fully bootstrapped with no board of directors
“First of all, I'm a bootstrapped entrepreneur. I own my own business. I don't have a board of directors, and so I don't have accountability that's baked in, right?”
Disclosure
Heacock made $500,000 in 2008 via a StubHub affiliate side hustle
“In 2008, I made about half a million dollars that year, just, you know, on this side hustle doing affiliate marketing.”
Disclosure
My Office Delivered generated $6.5 million in 2009 dropshipping supplies
“I started a company called My Office Delivered, where we were effectively drop shipping office supplies, and in 2009 sold, you know, six and a half million dollars or so of office supplies, primarily on Amazon, and when I looked at the actual underlying data o…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy makes air filters for $2 and sells them for $12
“We manufacture an air filter for about two dollars and sell it on average for 12.”
Disclosure
Filterbuy fulfills 100% of its Amazon orders directly
“We fulfill a hundred percent of our orders on Amazon.”
Assertion Supported
Filterbuy launches in 505 Walmart stores
“We just launched in 505 Walmarts and really have a big retail strategy going forward.”
Disclosure
Filterbuy targets $42M in marketing spend after $38M year
“Our budget next year is forty-two million dollars for our marketing in general. So, like, we've spent about 40, it's a forty-two million dollar line item for us. At least going into next year, I think it was thirty-eight million dollars this year.”
Disclosure
Filterbuy sells 10,000 to 20,000 units weekly in 505 Walmart stores
“We now are selling between 10 and 20,000 units a week in Walmart, and that's 10 to 20,000 new to potential new to brand customers a week that we are reaching just in our kind of trial, 505 store period in Walmart.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy lost $2 million on Prime Day due to an Amazon glitch
“We had a big Prime deal that was running, and by some glitch of the system I got a call at three o'clock in the morning from someone at Amazon that our deal was not running, and they were looking at fixing it. I got up, started monitoring it, and by nine o'clo…”
Disclosure
Starting a freight business during COVID was a big mistake
“Like I started a freight business during COVID, and that I could kind of squint and say made sense because I'm in the logistics business after all, right? But, it ended up being a big mistake”
Disclosure
Heacock liquidated Filterbuy's truck fleet in 2023, losing millions
“Ultimately, I liquidated all of those trucks at the end of twenty-twenty-three. All in, that probably was a three or four million dollar mistake on my side.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Filterbuy has sold to roughly eight million unique US residences
“We have sold to Somewhere around eight million unique residences across the country.”
Disclosure
Building a public personal brand burns alternative career options
“And, you know, a big motivation for me going so public with my personal brand in the last couple of months is Really about burning the boats behind me because, you know, I'm on a mission to build the world's leading indoor air quality company, and, you know, I…”
Disclosure
Heacock commuted NYC to Alabama weekly for Filterbuy's first three years
“I actually kept a car in Atlanta at the, you know, parking go where I would go there on Monday morning and then drive from Atlanta to Talladega. It's about a two hour drive. And I would stay there Monday through Friday and come back, and so for the first three…”
Disclosure
Heacock rejects labeling Filterbuy a D2C brand
“I do not want to be considered a direct to consumer brand. I want to be an indoor air quality brand. I mean, that, that's really what I want to be because I think direct to consumer is so limiting.”
Disclosure
Heacock spent his last $55,000 on a hot glue laminator
“I spent, you know, like, 55,000 dollars, probably close to the last 55 grand I had to buy that, that hot glue laminator.”