The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Zappos reached $1.6 billion in sales on just $10 million in equity
“Tony invested ten million dollars of his own money, but most of it was financed through being very, very creative, figuring out how to get merchants that we ordered from to give us credit and to increase the credit line. We had a, eventually got a line of cred…”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 45:48 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Supported
Amazon leadership originally conceived AWS as a low-margin infrastructure business
“They didn't think this was a, this is a high margin business. They thought of it as like, ok, this will be a low margin business too, and we like low margin businesses.”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:08:55 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Supported
Lin: DoorDash proactively digitized merchant menus during COVID lockdowns
“They decided, like, these merchants are going to be hurting, and we need to help them, and so they proactively went out and uploaded menus from different merchants onto DoorDash and said, hey, I know you guys are hurting. The only thing you can do is delivery.…”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:23:13 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Partly supported
Banks called Zappos's $60 million loan during the 2008 financial crisis
“At Zappos, it was, what do we do after nine-eleven when sales went to zero, what do we do during the financial crisis when credit became very, very difficult, and we were borrowing sixty million dollars, and we had sixty million dollars that we did nothing wro…”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:13:11 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Partly supported
Lin: Airbnb lost 80% of its revenue when the pandemic hit
“You have a business that went from a business that was growing 2030, 40% a year to a business that declines and you lose 80% of your revenue.”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:16:57 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Supported
Airbnb held $3 billion in cash against $4 billion in customer deposits
“We have three billion dollars of capital on the balance sheet at Airbnb, but we have three billion dollars or four billion dollars of customer deposits.”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:19:26 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Supported
Lin: DoorDash expanded delivery market beyond Grubhub's existing-courier restaurant base
“The only restaurants that would be on Grubhub's website were all the companies that already had delivery staff available. So what DoorDash did was to expand the market. And by expanding the market, they were very focused on that problem.”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 2:01:54 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Supported
Microsoft acquired LinkExchange for $265 million on $15 million in revenue
“We had fifteen million dollars in revenue. You can kind of tell that we were in a bubble when someone would be willing to buy a company that had fifteen million dollars in revenue for two hundred and sixty-five million dollars. But also, you know, it was the t…”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 21:05 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Partly supported
Tellme Networks burned $60 million a quarter before its enterprise pivot
“At tell me networks, when we're burning sixty million dollars a quarter, how do we get through that, and how do we pivot the company from a consumer business that wasn't working into an enterprise business?”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:12:52 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Supported
Lin: Airbnb raised debt during COVID to avoid a down-round valuation
“We're going to raise money, and we're going to do it in a way that doesn't burden previous investors. So we're not going to raise money at a low valuation. We're going to raise debt.”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:19:06 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Assertion Supported
Lin: Restaurants typically operate with less than 30 days of cash
“He knew that restaurants wouldn't survive. They had less than 30 days of cash. And, you know, that's less than 30 days of cash when they actually are running at full speed.”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:22:25 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
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