why aren't all 65 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Gross: Enduring corporate culture is built through scarcity, not early abundance
“It's in many ways in, in scarcity where, where you build culture. It's not in an era of plenty. And one of the most challenging things I think for Google and Facebook's culture is, you know, they really stuck a toothpick into the sand and had a massive oil wel…”
Insight
Gross: Corporate cultures emerge directly from underlying tech business models
“So in, in many ways, I think the cultural differences between Google and Apple or Facebook and Apple are just emerging properties of an ads driven business model versus we sell you shrink wrapped, you know, pieces of hardware business model.”
Insight
Robinson: User Data's True Value Comes from Aggregate Cross-Referencing
“The value of your data is when they cross-reference it with other people, right? The value emerges not just because Shane is using Google, but lots of other people are, and they're able to do, use statistics and machine learning to find patterns so that they u…”
Assertion Contradicted
Robinson: US Tech Giants Own User Data Unlike European Frameworks
“In the United States, You don't own your data. Google does, or Facebook. It's their corporate data. But in Europe, the individual owns his or her data.”
Insight
Garvey Berger: Knowledge workers are valued for willingness to learn, not existing knowledge
“I think that means that the core attribute is not how much you know, but how much you're willing to learn and how much you're willing to question what you know. If what we want is, is stuff that's known, Google will do that for you, right? Like you don't, we d…”
Insight
Search engines with higher market share inevitably win via data advantages
“And if you had two search engines, and they had, they started out with identical technology, and one at 51% share, one at 41% share. The 51% share would grow and would improve just because they have a data advantage.”
Insight
The greatest existential threat to tech aggregators is shifting consumer sentiment
“And given that these companies gain their power through owning the customer relationship, the greatest danger is always a turn in customer sentiment.”
Opinion
Mauboussin: Tech giants leverage capital into insurmountable data capture flywheels
“The amount of data that they can capture, and because all those companies have substantial resources, they can put a lot of resources against not only capturing, but analyzing data. It's an interesting flywheel, right?”
Insight
Domingos: Data Network Effects Create Major Competitive Moats for Machine Learning Incumbents
“There's this network effect of data where if you have a good product and people start using it, then you have a lot of use this, for example, you know, how Google has built up such an unassailable position in search, right? Is like you use their search engine.…”
Assertion Contradicted
Dixon: VC invests only $10B–$20B yearly, smaller than big tech R&D budgets
“This industry is actually, you know, it gets a lot of attention in the press venture capital, but it's actually a very small industry. So, you know, they're probably, there are a few dozen kind of firms that most people, you know, that, that, that constitute t…”
Assertion Supported
Zweig: The average historical return for retail IPO buyers is rotten
“Instead of letting somebody tell you it's the next Google, you have to ask yourself, what's the average experience of people who have bought IPOs? The answer is it's rotten.”
Assertion Supported
Sutherland: Vanishingly few Google users click 'I'm Feeling Lucky'
“The number of people who actually click it, i.e., I'm feeling lucky, take me straight to a single page, is vanishingly small. People want to choose between, you know, effectively above-the-fold options”
Disclosure
Wolfe: I Use AI for Two to Three Hours Daily, Surpassing Google
“I'm on AI easily more than Google now, but I don't know, 2:03 hours a day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Halligan: Over 60% of HubSpot customer inbound traffic originates from Google
“If you look across our customers, that's 62, 63% of the inbound traffic is via Google, and most of it's organic.”
Assertion Contradicted
Google searches for 'imposter syndrome' surged alongside Instagram's launch in 2010
“In 2010, when Instagram came around, you can see it literally in Google search algorithm. Imposter syndrome starts to take off.”
Disclosure
Kornfield used a candle-lighting ritual to ground Google vice presidents
“I remember going into Google to work with the top, you know, vice presidents who helped run the company, and there were in this white, I mean, in this glass cubicle, because it's sort of open floor plan, but you can kind of sit and close some doors so it's not…”
Assertion Supported
Balcetis: Google Reduced Unhealthy Snacking by Altering Visual Accessibility
“What they found was that just by changing what it is that people could see easily, they changed consumption patterns. People people ate less of the unhealthier stuff, even though it was still there, simply because it was sort of out of sight.”