The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sinclair: Team May Reverse Aging in Humans Within 18 Months
“In Canada, we have a non-human primate study for safety to see how that goes, and within the next 18 months, if all goes well, we will be reversing aging in a human, if all goes well.”
Dr. David Sinclair May 3, 2022 ▶ 1:11:01 David Sinclair: Reversing the Aging Process
Assertion Contradicted
Liemandt: Paper shows 50% of UCSD freshmen cannot answer fifth-grade questions
“I think UC San Diego, one of the top schools, universities in our country, right? Just published a paper that, like, 50% of their freshmen can't answer fifth grade questions.”
Joe Liemandt Mar 31, 2026 ▶ 28:34 Alpha School: AI and The Future of Education | Joe Liemandt
Assertion Contradicted
Poilievre: Bill C-11 lets CRTC manipulate social algorithms
“We've seen this government has been trying to concentrate more and more media power, whether it's through C-Eleven Which allows the CRTC to manipulate social media algorithms to favor certain types of media”
Pierre Poilievre Dec 27, 2025 ▶ 36:14 Pierre Poilievre on the Role of Government, Freedom, and Affordability
Assertion Contradicted
Parrish: El Salvador replaced public teachers with Synthesis AI tutoring software
“Oh, so they developed this Synthesis, this AI company developed this tutor, which actually teaches kids, and it's so good that El Salvador, the country, just recently adopted and replaced their teachers.”
Shane Parrish Apr 15, 2025 ▶ 1:16:42 Bret Taylor: A Vision for AI’s Next Frontier
Assertion Contradicted
Poilievre: Mark Carney Claimed in 2021 There Would Be No Inflation
“Like, you know, Mr. Carney, for example, told us in 20, 21, don't worry about inflation. There won't be any inflation. We should print even more money. Well, he was totally wrong. Like, utterly wrong.”
Pierre Poilievre Apr 13, 2025 ▶ 19:06 Pierre Poilievre: What I Want to Build (and Break) To Fix Canada
Assertion Contradicted
Controlled Studies Show Grieving People Suffer Worse Outcomes From Therapy
“There's a whole body of research that shows, you know, people who've gone through natural bereavement, the loss of a loved one, often feel worse after therapy. They did these controlled studies with You know, a control group who didn't, who lost a loved one, b…”
Abigail Shrier May 21, 2024 ▶ 31:17 Abigail Shrier: Why the Kids Aren’t Alright
Assertion Contradicted
Therapy Causes Breast Cancer Survivors to Experience Worse Anxiety and Depression
“Same thing with you know, breast cancer survivors, anxiety about it, depression about it. They did worse if they had gone to therapy and also alienation from a spouse, alienation from parents. All of these are classic iatrogenic effects of therapy, and there's…”
Abigail Shrier May 21, 2024 ▶ 31:47 Abigail Shrier: Why the Kids Aren’t Alright
Assertion Contradicted
No Robust Scientific Evidence Shows That Preventive Mental Health Therapy Works
“There's no good study showing preventive mental health works unless you're talking about things like a good life, like connection, you know, doing things for others, getting involved in community, dancing, you know, exercising, eating right.”
Abigail Shrier May 21, 2024 ▶ 37:26 Abigail Shrier: Why the Kids Aren’t Alright
Assertion Contradicted
Natural gas produces more net global warming than coal
“Natural gas actually produces more global warming in almost every case than coal.”
Nathan Myhrvold Mar 21, 2023 ▶ 27:04 Nathan Myhrvold
Assertion Contradicted
Driving a Tesla on the US East Coast actively hurts the climate
“If you drive a Tesla and you live in the East Coast of the United States, statistically speaking, you're hurting the climate, not helping it.”
Nathan Myhrvold Mar 21, 2023 ▶ 29:37 Nathan Myhrvold
Assertion Contradicted
Huberman: Mouth breathing causes deviated septums in most non-trauma cases
“The reason you have a deviated septum is because you're a mouth breather. There are rare exceptions where if people boxed or they had broken nose or something like that, but your sinuses can learn to dilate.”
Dr. Andrew Huberman Mar 22, 2022 ▶ 1:20:40 Andrew Huberman: The Science of Small Changes
Assertion Contradicted
Robinson: Palo Alto Has the Highest Teenage Suicide Rate in the US
“Of all the cities in the United States, the one with the highest teenage suicide rate is Palo Alto, which is tax central, right?”
Adam Robinson Dec 11, 2018 ▶ 19:00 #47 Adam Robinson: Winning at the Great Game (Part 1)
Assertion Contradicted
Gil: Crash data shows children only need car seats until age two
“If you actually look at crash data, Real data, and people have now reproduced this across multiple countries, multiple time periods, it's the age of two. So for six extra years, we keep people in booster seats and car seats, at least against the data, right?”
Elad Gil May 13, 2025 ▶ 48:22 Elad Gil: How to Spot a Billion-Dollar Startup Before the Rest of the World
Assertion Contradicted
School Psychology Associations Stayed Silent on Foreseeable Lockdown Damage to Children
“The school counselors association, school psychologists association, none of these organizations had anything to say about the foreseeable damage that was going to happen to kids.”
Abigail Shrier May 21, 2024 ▶ 54:52 Abigail Shrier: Why the Kids Aren’t Alright
Assertion Contradicted
Conant: Most companies no longer report quarterly earnings
“Most people aren't reporting quarterly earnings. They're doing annual, they provide guidance, but they're looking more long-term in nature, which is appropriate.”
Doug Conant Aug 24, 2021 ▶ 24:37 #118 Doug Conant: Leadership With Integrity
Assertion Contradicted
Leading Medical Textbook Harrison's Ignores Hormonal Mechanisms of Obesity
“The medical textbook, the most seminal textbook, and the Harrison's Principles of Medicine, I think it's called, and the chapter on obesity is written by the, you know, a very, very smart researcher named Jeff Flyer, who just, until recently, was dean of Harva…”
Gary Taubes Nov 30, 2017 ▶ 45:58 #25 Gary Taubes: Is Sugar Slowly Killing Us
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