Author and former professional poker player Annie Duke explains to Shane Parrish how leader behavior and outcome bias distort decision-making processes in organizations.
0:00 / 0:19exact quote · 19.8s
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“If the leader expresses their belief about what's correct, in a sense, that acts like an outcome. And the group, without knowing it, and the leader without intending to have that happen, now causes a situation where disagreement with that belief is less likely, and people are actually going to start reasoning towards support of the belief.”
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AssertionSupported
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“In fact, there's a lot of evidence that says that smart people who know about them are actually worse.”
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Duke: Documenting scenario probabilities in advance prevents outcome bias ('resulting')
“You create now, ok, we're going to go with decision A. Here are the scenarios we think might occur. Here are stabs at the probabilities. And you memorialize it. So now, when the thing happens that's right up there on the whiteboard, you took a picture of it. T…”
Annie DukeOct 25, 2022▶ 55:44TKP Insights: Making (Even) Better Decisions
Insight
Duke: Decision quality and outcomes are loosely linked in poker
“Outcomes and decisions are so loosely linked in that game. I mean, you know, you have the best hand, you get crushed, you have the worst hand, you win sometimes, and there's so much hidden information, the cards are face down”
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Duke: Fast, abundant feedback does not prevent people from repeating mistakes
“As I continued to play poker, I noticed this over and over again, that people really persisted in their mistakes, despite the fact that there was very clear feedback That was very quick, and there was a lot of it.”
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Opinion
Duke: IBM lost to Apple due to a culture of outcome bias
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