Ben Thompson
Founder & Author, Stratechery · 1 appearance on the record.
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analystauthorfounderhost@benthompson ↗stratechery.com ↗
Ben Thompson publishes Stratechery, a subscription-based newsletter and podcast network analyzing technology and media business strategy. He pioneered the modern paid newsletter model and established frameworks such as Aggregation Theory.
45statements → 8claims → 2claims resolved → 3.98/5average certainty → 2.33/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 5said about them ↓
1 supported 0 partly supported 1 contradicted 6 not checkable as stated how the 8 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
6 predictions · 2 assertions · 2 opinions · 30 insights · 3 disclosures · 2 what ifs · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 8 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, and 6 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Ben argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Streaming will eventually cost consumers exactly as much as their old cable bundles
“What's going to happen is people are going to end up paying about the same amount of money every month they do for content today.
There should be paying different people.
And I think that that's going to be the case.
This idea that there's going to be this, yo…”
Their most notable contradicted claim
Ben Thompson predicts music streaming will soon surpass CD-era peak revenues
“It turns out the music industry is actually in fantastic shape, and their revenue has been increasing a lot, and they're actually going to have, they're on pace to have like their best year ever in like the next couple of years, like even more than like the CD…”
How they sound: not measured why? →
We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Ben Thompson on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.
Everything Ben Thompson said on the Knowledge Project that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Social media only harms digital publications operating with the wrong business models
“The social media is viewed as such a bad thing for publications, but that's because they don't have the right business model. For me, social media is absolutely incredible. I mean, it's the most amazing channel that, that could ever be invented. I get to use i…”
External market context drives corporate outcomes far more than executive leadership
“Saying Microsoft failed because of the actions of Steve Ballmer. It's such a presumptuous and it's human nature to ascribe things to people, but it's wrong. Like, what matters far more is the context and environment around Microsoft”
Tech media historically covered the industry exclusively through a product lens
“There were tons of sites writing about technology, but the vast majority, all of them basically were writing about technology from a product perspective, from sort of product lens.”
Ben Thompson analyzes tech by starting with business models, not products
“I start from business models. I start from trying to gain an understanding of a company's culture, you know, which I think goes back to a company's founding and the lessons it learned early on. And from that, look at what they do, look at what they might do, l…”
Ben Thompson launched paid subscriptions based on non-posting day homepage traffic
“The metric that I used when figuring out when I wanted to actually launch it was I was looking at the number of visitors to the homepage on days that I didn't post. Because those were people that were searching out new content. They were going to trajectory sa…”
Thompson: Stratechery has never done any marketing
“And the, you know, I've never done any marketing, you know, and this is, I think a thing where the internet is, is very, A huge benefit for publishers if you have this sort of model, because the friction for my subscribers to tell other people to try it out is…”
True intellectual scale comes from influencing the influencers, not direct readers
“The way to truly scale, the truly have impact is not to just influence the people who read you directly. It's to influence the influencers as it were.”
Avoiding confirmation bias is far harder than generating new analysis
“I think from my perspective it's less the coming up with opinions that is difficult and more the, Trying to keep a very strong sort of guard up against like confirmation bias where, where things happen and, oh, that, that, that fits my view of the world. I'm, …”
Admitting mistakes publicly is the fastest and shortest way to be right
“A friend of mine once said I love to be right, which is why I always say when I'm wrong, because that's the fastest and shortest way to be right. You know, as opposed to sort of like, double down it. So, so one, if you want to be right, like, admit you're wron…”
Being wrong on timing is exactly equivalent to being wrong
“That's no excuse, because to be wrong in timing is, is, is to be wrong.”
Incorrect technical details cause key decision-makers to dismiss valid analysis
“If you're not precise and understand exactly how the business works, then your analysis may be right in spirit. But it's not right because of the details are wrong. And more importantly, the people that matter are not going to hear what you have to say because…”
Search engines with higher market share inevitably win via data advantages
“And if you had two search engines, and they had, they started out with identical technology, and one at 51% share, one at 41% share. The 51% share would grow and would improve just because they have a data advantage.”
E-commerce search makes active brand recollection far more important than passive recognition
“Whereas on the, if you go to Amazon for deodorant, You search for Dioran. You search for Old Spice, or you search for Reichardt, which means the recollection of a specific brand name is much more important than the sort of recognition of a brand, if that makes…”
The greatest existential threat to tech aggregators is shifting consumer sentiment
“And given that these companies gain their power through owning the customer relationship, the greatest danger is always a turn in customer sentiment.”
Venture capital is the exact financial equivalent of software
“VC is the financial equivalent of software. It is is, is the mechanism by which to put a lot of money in upfront such that you can earn, you know, uncapped returns on the backend.”
Venture capital stage inflation means historical Series As are now pre-seed rounds
“What used to be a series A today is a pre-seed, and then there's a seed, and then there's a series A, which is basically the old series C.”
Ben Thompson predicts music streaming will soon surpass CD-era peak revenues
“It turns out the music industry is actually in fantastic shape, and their revenue has been increasing a lot, and they're actually going to have, they're on pace to have like their best year ever in like the next couple of years, like even more than like the CD…”
Stratechery would not have survived if launched five years earlier
“I could write the exact same things, the exact same sort of person I was, and I've come along 10 years earlier, or five years earlier, and would not be successful. Yeah, absolutely. I'd be writing for like, you know, some like, magazine or whatever, make, you …”
Stratechery's annual subscriptions now significantly outnumber its monthly memberships
“And, you know, at this point, for a long time, they're actually fifty-fifty, but at this point, my annual membership is actually a fair bit larger than my monthly membership, and I think that's great.”
Credit card processing fees are Stratechery's largest business expense by far
“I am well aware of how expensive credit cards are. It's my largest expense by a lot.”
Stratechery replaced Ben Thompson's full-time salary in one year instead of five
“My goal when I started trajectory was that in five years, it could become my job. It actually became my job in a year, and I am now five years in, and, Far more successful than I would have ever imagined or made possible.”
The other half of the tape: Ben Thompson's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 5 times in 1 episode on the Knowledge Project. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Chris Dixon 5
Every mention by year
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2015 5 mentions in 1 episode
Appearances (1)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World | Sep 5, 2018 | 1h 21m |