The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

0held up → 1didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →

0%of resolved predictions held up

Everyone Shane Parrish (7)Josh Wolfe (3)Brad Jacobs (3)Pedro Domingos (2)Joe Liemandt (2)Dr. David Sinclair (2)Balaji Srinivasan (2)Vlad Tenev (1)Scott Page (1)Reed Hastings (1)Kunal Shah (1)John Bragg (1)

drag to pan · pinch, buttons, or ⌘/ctrl scroll to zoom

today 2026 OctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 1 assessed early →

The record (1) every resolved claim →

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Rockefeller Predicted Standard Oil Would Someday Refine All Oil

“The Standard Oil Company will someday refine all of the oil and make all of the barrels.”

Shane Parrish Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 1:00:36 John D. Rockefeller: The Principles Behind The Greatest Fortune in History

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.

The Calls

The record (1) every resolved claim →

Turn any episode into a week of clips.