Philip Tetlock
8 statements across 1 episodes · 2 bullish · 1 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Dec 8, 2015 by Philip Tetlock · said 2 times in 2 episodes since 2015 · across every show →
On the record as a speaker too: Philip Tetlock's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.
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brought up most by Michael Mauboussin (1), Barbara Tversky (1)
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2022 1 mention in 1 episode
2015 1 mention in 1 episode
Everything said about Philip Tetlock, oldest first
Dec 8, 2015
Tetlock: Predicting 10-year stock market direction is easier than tomorrow's
“It's very hard to say whether the stock market's going to up or, going to go up or down tomorrow. So that's a short range question. In some ways, it's easier to predict where the stock market's going to be up or down 10 years from now relative to now that it i…”
Dec 8, 2015 positive
Tetlock: Superforecasters actively second-guess their successes rather than just taking credit
“And supers do that too. But they also second guess their successes. They say, well, were we lucky just where we really nailed this question, but were we lucky? Could it have gone otherwise? Were we almost wrong? That's an unusual question for people to ask the…”
Dec 8, 2015 negative
Tetlock: Executives resist forecasting tournaments to protect their high-status judgment
“Even though I think we have shown that forecasting tournaments can appreciably improve probability estimates, there are a lot of reasons why organizations don't adopt them. One is the people at the top of the status hierarchy. They're not very enthusiastic. Bo…”
Dec 8, 2015 neutral
Tetlock: Belief updating works without strong priors, but fails with ideological convictions
“I think we can make people better belief updaters on problems where they don't have very strong ideological priors or preconceptions. But when people have really strong emotions and ideological convictions about presidential candidates or economic policy or wh…”
Dec 8, 2015
Tetlock: Modeling randomness is a good way to fail as a forecaster
“If you want to be a good forecaster, you don't spend very much time working on roulette wheel type problems. I mean, if, I mean, if you go to, if you visit casinos, you'll find lots of people who think they can detect patterns in roulette wheel spins. And they…”
Dec 8, 2015 positive
Tetlock: 50 minutes of debiasing training improves forecasting accuracy by 10%
“We got about, for average forecasters who are randomly assigned to an experimental condition in which they get Kahneman style debiasing exercises the improvement is in the vicinity of 10%. And that's a big effect when you consider that, you know, we're talking…”
Dec 8, 2015
Tetlock: Vague terms like 'could' allow pundits to evade accountability
“When you say something could or might happen, that could mean anything from .1 to low .9 in probability terms. And, you know, if it happens, I can say, well, I told you it could. And if it doesn't happen, I can say look, I merely said it could.”