why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 11 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Movva: NVIDIA is producing 5 million Blackwell chips this year
“NVIDIA's pumping out five million Blackwell chips this year.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Vishria: China is adding ten times more energy capacity than the US
“The bigger thing to me is that I think China's bringing on 10 times as much energy next year as we are in the U.S.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Wachen: Etched hardware achieves 10x higher user concurrency at equal interactivity
“So when people are doing that evaluation, our hardware is going to generally be able to get you an order of magnitude more concurrency at a given level of interactivity.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2026
Buying the S&P 500 at 22 P/E yields negative ten-year returns
“The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the ten-year forward returns negative when you buy the S&P of 22. That's what history shows.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Nolan: China's Energy Production Will Triple the US's This Year
“China was growing a long time, like. We were equal neck and neck. I think this year they now will be triple us on total energy production.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Carnell: Oral Wegovy Lifted Weekly New GLP-1 Prescriptions to 300,000
“Prior to the launch of the oral Wagovi, just a few months ago, the GLP one market was moving at about a 200,000, you know, recorded new scripts Per, per per week. 200,000 new people getting on these medicines per week. The most recent data that I looked at thi…”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2025
George: ChatGPT Has ~1 Billion Users and Monetizes Under 50 Million
“If you look at CHPT and the consumer stuff, there's like a billion users. They monetize less than fifty million of them.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2026
Khosrowshahi: Uber Reserve has surpassed a $5 billion run rate
“And Reserve now is Over five billion dollar run rate.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2025
Wang: Xiaomi won a Nürburgring speed record with its debut car
“And Xiaomi in its first time submitting, going into this race making its very first car, won one of the speed records beating established companies like Porsche and BMW.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Horing: Insight alumni have founded 16 to 18 funds
“I think we have 16 or 18 funds that were started by Insight alum. I've got 30 plus partners at other firms today that were Insight alums.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2025
Decagon's AI cut Oura's immediate human-agent request rate from 33% to 5%
“We have one of our customers yeah, or a ring, like the wearable ring we did a case study with them where before having any sort of jam AI system, like one in three customer that came in would just not bother saying anything and just keep jamming agent until th…”