The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 760 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 11 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Matt Smith: US gas infrastructure can only add 20 BCF daily
“After evaluating every producing gas well and the entire pipeline and processing and gathering system, we have the capacity to add about 20 BCF a day of gas production.”
Matt Smith: US built only one interstate gas pipeline in 10-12 years
“In the last 10 or 12 years, we've really built one interstate gas pipeline. That was Mountain Valley Pipeline connecting Appalachia to Mid-Atlantic.”
Wachen: Etched is the only startup building custom racks and chips
“We're actually, I think we're the only startup right now that's building its own rack as well as its own chips.”
Wachen: Over $1B in AI Compute Revenue Generated Every Day
“Every day there's over a billion dollars of revenue in this category, and a lot of it's inference.”
Wachen: Etched ran rack inference in 40 days versus rival's 10 months
“There is another very famous AI chip company that took 10 months to go from getting their silicon back to having them running inference in Iraq. And this was like publicly announced to their investors and it was a really big deal. We were able to do it in 40 d…”
Wachen: Etched hardware achieves 10x higher user concurrency at equal interactivity
“So when people are doing that evaluation, our hardware is going to generally be able to get you an order of magnitude more concurrency at a given level of interactivity.”
Sacerdote: AI coding tools represent a $500B market opportunity
“And if you think about how many coders there are in the world, twenty million, you've got a half a trillion dollar market just from coding alone.”
Sacerdote: Supply chain is 30% short across DRAM, NAND, and PCBs
“We're already short, you know, the DRAM market, the NAND market, the PCB, we're already, like, 30, we're 30% short all these things as we are now.”
Khosrowshahi: Waymo robotaxis in Austin and Atlanta increased human Uber driver earnings
“Now drivers in Austin and Atlanta, where we have two big partnerships with Waymo, Drivers on the Uber platform, they're making more money. The number of drivers joining the platform is increasing because it looks like AVs are actually adding incremental demand…”
DeepSeek Release Doubled Asian AWS GPU Rental Prices Due to Compute Demand
“And that was really strange because by Deep Seek Monday, it was super clear That this was going to be the most positive thing that had ever happened to compute demand. Prices in the AWS availability zones in Asia had already, like, doubled. You were seeing GPU…”
Baker: Tech relative valuations hit 10-year lows during recent drawdown
“I think on a relative basis, tech essentially got as cheap as it's been versus the rest of the market has at any point over the last 10 years.”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic has dramatically lower cost per token than OpenAI
“Anthropic clearly is, has a dramatically lower cost per token than OpenAI.”
Baker: Anthropic burned around 80% less capital than OpenAI
“I think they have, they burned maybe 80% less than OpenAI.”
Baker: Anthropic has strongly positive gross margins on inference
“Anthropic I'm sure is at very positive gross margins on inference today.”
Baker: Jensen Huang has never had a formal contract with TSMC
“Jensen has never had a contract with Taiwan Simi. They do business on what seems fair in handshakes.”
Gavin Baker: Frontier AI models capture overwhelming majority of model-layer returns
“All the economic returns to AI at the model layer, not all of them, but an overwhelming amount of them have been at the frontier, which is surprising to me”
Baker: Anthropic and OpenAI surpassed Google on the AI intelligence-cost Pareto frontier
“Google dominated that nine months ago. At every point on the Pareto frontier, OpenAI, XAI, and Anthropic were inside of them. Now, the Pareto Frontier is dominated by Anthropic, OpenAI, and then Grok 4.3 is on the Pareto Frontier.”
Baker: Flat-rate subscriptions deliver a lobotomized version of AI
“And if you're on that 250 or 300 or 280 dollar a month plan or whatever it is,
You were getting severely rate limited.
You were getting a lobotomized version of the AI.”
Baker: AI profits accrue to infrastructure and models, not applications
“Today in that, in Jensen's five layer cake of AI. The profits. They're accruing to energy. They're accruing to data centers. They're accruing to chips. They're accruing to models. Not really accruing to the applications.”
Rao: Anthropic grew run-rate revenue from $9B to over $30B in four months
“We started the year with about nine billion dollars of run rate revenue, and we ended the quarter with, you know, north of thirty billion dollars of run rate revenue.”
Rao: Over 90% of Anthropic's code is written by Claude Code
“Right now within the company, you know, 90 plus percent of Our code is actually written by cloud code, right? A lot of cloud codes code is written by cloud code.”
Anthropic explicitly denies an internal slowdown in AI model scaling laws
“From what we see, the scaling laws are not slowing down.”
Anthropic lost only two employees to Meta's aggressive AI talent poaching efforts
“When, you know, Meta and others were out, you know, with these huge packages for some of the technical talent in, in, across the large language labs, I think we lost two people and other labs lost dozens.”
Buying the S&P 500 at 22 P/E yields negative ten-year returns
“The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the ten-year forward returns negative when you buy the S&P of 22. That's what history shows.”
Patel: AI can currently automate roughly 3% of BLS tasks
“The BLS has this entire Bureau of Labor Statistics has this entire, like, set of, like, 2000 tasks, And so he did that with AI, which ones can be done by AI, which ones cannot and grading them across a rubric, you know, about three percent are doable now with …”
Patel: Mythos proves that AI pre-training scaling laws still hold
“But ultimately, yes, Mythos is a significantly larger model. It's proof that the scaling laws still work. Everything about it shows that the trend line continues of models. More compute into model makes model better.”
Patel: CPUs are completely sold out driven by reinforcement learning demand
“CPU-wise, all these reinforcement learning environments plus all the slop code you and I are generating that is now running on some, you know, Vercel instance or whatever it is or some AWS instance or some bucket that we've spun up, all of that requires CPU, a…”
Patel: Sam Altman's residence was targeted with Molotov cocktails twice
“You look at the comments of news articles where Sam Altman had a Molotov cocktail thrown at his house twice in like two weeks.”
Nolan: Advanced Nuclear Startups Cite Russian Fuel as Primary Bottleneck
“And then all of them said the exact same thing. We want, you know, we're going to make nuclear affordable. We're going to make it scalable. We're going to take this from huge construction projects to factory built. And yet the one thing that's the hardest is n…”
Nolan: China's Energy Production Will Triple the US's This Year
“China was growing a long time, like. We were equal neck and neck. I think this year they now will be triple us on total energy production.”
Levine: Physical Intelligence achieved robot dexterity without specialized techniques
“What was surprising is that we could also get these systems to perform very dexterous behaviors without really doing anything particularly special for that.”
Levine: Models generalize across robot embodiments without architecture changes
“Where we could get our models to work on all sorts of other robots, including robots with multi-fingered hands robots with different numbers of degrees of freedom, and obviously we needed to get data, and we needed to fine-tune the model, but the model itself …”
China-Russia oil and gas trade remains overwhelmingly denominated in US dollars
“China's a big importer of Russian gas and oil.
It's kind of crazy to think about.
That trade is still denominated for a vast majority in the US dollar.”
Sankar: Palantir had to sue the US Army to compete
“You know, we had to sue the army to compete at some point.”
Sankar: Europe Created Zero €100B+ Companies from Scratch in 50 Years
“Europe has created zero, zero companies worth more than a hundred billion euro from scratch in the last 50 years. It's almost, almost an astonishingly bad track record. We've created all of our trillion dollar companies from scratch in the last 50 years.”
Sankar: Palantir is modeled like an artist colony and Hollywood agency
“You know, from the very early days, he modeled our entire company as an artist colony. And it's like we have more in common with like a Hollywood talent agency Than we do with kind of a typical software company in terms of our approach to looking at humans.”
Sankar: 50% of All Clinical Trial Drugs Are Created in China
“Wuxi went from being a cheap, you know, Basically a cheap pair of hands for pipetting contract research in the pharma industry to actually now 50% of all clinical trials are drugs that are created in China.”
Sankar: Apple Spent Equivalent of 2.5 Marshall Plans in China
“Apple has spent the equivalent on an inflation-adjusted basis in the last five years of two and a half Marshall plans building talent and capacity in China.”
Sankar: The Pentagon increasingly treats defense tech startups as Plan A
“Increasingly in conversations that I have in, in, in the Pentagon, I hear some of these new entrants are talked about as plan A. It's not plan B. It's not, hey, we'll see, maybe this will work in the future. It's like, no, no, this is the plan, and we'll, we'l…”
China does not suffer from NIMBY infrastructure bottlenecks
“They don't have this problem. I'm confident of that. And so, yeah, it is one of the biggest differences between the two countries.”
Solar power purchase agreement costs are up over 50% since 2020 lows
“Meanwhile, you know, the cost of a PPA, a power purchase agreement, for solar is well off the lows. What kind of lows happened around twenty-twenty, and it's the cost, again, of delivered electrons from solar is, you know, probably 50% plus more expensive than…”
Classroom technology adoption increased over 20 years while outcomes declined
“We've adopted more and more technology in the classroom over that 20 years, and outcomes have gone down.”
Skin substitute manufacturers exploit a six-month federal reimbursement price loophole
“Right now, one of the big things is skin substitutes.
So if you get a burn, you need some type of new skin on there's regs about how those get reimbursed and
You know, the first six months whenever a product is released, they are, there's not history of to h…”
Sundheim: Leading AI model developers generate high gross margins
“If you look at the underlying margins of these companies, they are not the margins that you see in a commoditized industry. You know, the gross margins are quite high.”
Sundheim: Anthropic Pivoted to Enterprise After Failing to Gain Consumer Traction
“Anthropa took a different approach and just said, we are going to focus on enterprise. They tried consumer early on, but it became clear they didn't have traction, so then they just went all in the enterprise.”
Sundheim: D1 Capital Never Came Close to Going Out of Business
“First of all, we never came close to going into business. That was just nonsense.”
Behring: Bulk of 3G's RBI returns came from growth, not cost-cutting
“If you look at the amount of money we've made at RBI, and then you try to decompose that. Okay. How much Of it was because we did zero base budget successfully in a couple of instances. And how much of it is because we grew the businesses originally, we had 12…”