Andrew Milgram of Marblegate compares public market financial health against middle-market companies.
Prediction Held up
Milgram: 2025 Business Bankruptcies Will Remain High or Increase
“Based on the data we see to date and the bankruptcies that we've already seen in 2025, we would expect 2025 to show persistent and possibly higher number of business bankruptcy filings.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Milgram: Tariffs over 5% will devastate middle-market margins and debt service
“For the middle market, though anything above like a five or six percent tariff will have a devastating impact on margin, and consequently on the ability to service their debt stock.”
Opinion
Milgram: Most Distressed Investors Merely Trade Cheap High Yield
“Today, a lot of, you know, the folks that call themselves distressed investors, again, I view them as buying cheap high yield and sort of Participating as pure financial investors and portfolio traders but they will outsource all of that critical thinking.”
Assertion Partly supported
Milgram: Early Uber Expanded NYC Car Service Rather Than Stealing Taxi Riders
“There was this perception that they were taking riders away from taxis, and that was not at all the case. The data was super clear. They were expanding point-to-point car service in New York. They were taking drivers away from yellow.”
Opinion
Milgram: Uber exploited information asymmetry by pushing non-cash costs onto drivers
“Uber was taking advantage of an information asymmetry, so they understood that a driver didn't really understand the full picture of their cost structure, and that they were making a very cash-based decision, but they were pushing a lot of those non-cash or no…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Milgram: Taxi medallions will become capital assets for autonomous vehicle fleets
“While autonomous will probably someday displace the driver and therefore displace their earnings power, you can swap that earnings power for the ability to contribute capital, right? So the medallion becomes a capital asset that they contribute into the system…”