DRAM

4 statements across 3 episodes · 1 bullish · 1 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Dec 9, 2025 by Gavin Baker · across every show →

Everything said about DRAM, oldest first

Dec 9, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A 1990s-style DRAM memory shortage cycle could slow down AI expansion
“By the way, something that could slow all this down and be a natural governor is if we get our first true DRAM cycle since the late nineties.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 1:09:25 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Smartphones will run pruned frontier AI models locally within three years
“In three years on a bigger and bulkier phone to fit the amount of DRAM necessary, you know, and the battery won't probably last as long. You will be able to probably run a pruned down version of something like Gemini five or GroK four, GroK 4.1, or, you know, …”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 27:49 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Apr 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Patel: DRAM prices will double or triple from current levels
“DRAM will double or triple from here still, because That's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else, and the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher prici…”
Dylan Patel Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 35:06 The Supply and Demand of AI Tokens | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Jun 30, 2026
Insight
Uberti: Compute costs will drop faster than memory costs due to DRAM limits
“Generally, loading data is very expensive, and doing math is very cheap. And as time goes on, you'll end up finding that math gets cheaper at a rate that is faster than memory gets cheaper, due to this fundamental limit on any kind of DRAM device.”
Gavin Uberti Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 1:20:26 The Two Harvard Dropouts Who raised $800M to take on NVIDIA · Invest Like The Best
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