compute

18 statements across 10 episodes · 5 bullish · 5 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Jun 3, 2025 by John Zito · across every show →

Everything said about compute, oldest first

Jun 3, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zito: Generational Surge in Power, Defense, and Compute Spending Ahead
“We're about to go through this generational shift in power, infra, defense spend in Europe, it's been completely underspent and is needed globally. Everybody needs more compute. I don't think there's a debate on that.”
John Zito Jun 3, 2025 ▶ 5:27 How Apollo Built an $800 Billion Capital Markets Giant | John Zito Interview · Invest Like The Best
Jun 10, 2025 bearish
Insight
Gurley: AI revenue growth includes compute wrappers resold at negative gross margins
“There is some chance in my brain, and I haven't Fully thought through all the implications of this, that some of the revenue growth is, is resale of compute. And so many of the players in the market are reselling a wrapper on top of a foundation model on top o…”
Bill Gurley Jun 10, 2025 ▶ 43:30 The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private with Bill Gurley · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Patel: Post-training will eventually consume the majority of AI compute
“In fact, it's the base of everything, so you want to keep having gains, because any gains on pre-training, right, i.e. The model learns a little faster, or the model's a little bit smaller for the same quality, feeds into the next stage, which is this whole po…”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 30:19 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
May 13, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Rao: Anthropic is compute-constrained across use cases today
“So the answer is, you know, we're constrained kind of across those use cases internally today.”
Krishna Rao May 13, 2026 ▶ 26:51 Inside Anthropic's $100 Billion Al Compute Commitment | CFO Krishna Rao · Invest Like The Best
May 13, 2026
Disclosure
Anthropic dynamically swaps the same chips between inference and model training daily
“We, You know, run workloads on one day in the morning on a chip for inference, and in the afternoon or evening we use it for model development.”
Krishna Rao May 13, 2026 ▶ 52:40 Inside Anthropic's $100 Billion Al Compute Commitment | CFO Krishna Rao · Invest Like The Best
May 13, 2026
Insight
Rao: Overbuying compute bankrupts AI labs, while underbuying ruins frontier competitiveness
“If you buy too much compute, you go out of business. If you buy too little compute, you can't serve your customers and you're not at the frontier.”
Krishna Rao May 13, 2026 ▶ 1:48 Inside Anthropic's $100 Billion Al Compute Commitment | CFO Krishna Rao · Invest Like The Best
May 13, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Anthropic sacrifices customer capacity to maintain absolute minimums for model training
“There's a level of compute for model development that we will not go below, right? So even if it means it's harder to serve customers, or we have to do kind of unnatural things when it comes to that, we want to continue to make that long-term investment in dev…”
Krishna Rao May 13, 2026 ▶ 7:38 Inside Anthropic's $100 Billion Al Compute Commitment | CFO Krishna Rao · Invest Like The Best
May 13, 2026
Disclosure
Anthropic CFO Rao spends 30% to 40% of his time on compute
“I would say I spend 30 or 40% of my time on compute even today.”
Krishna Rao May 13, 2026 ▶ 2:47 Inside Anthropic's $100 Billion Al Compute Commitment | CFO Krishna Rao · Invest Like The Best
May 20, 2026 bullish
What-if
Baker: Anthropic would do over $100B today with unconstrained compute
“Maybe a true statement is that if anthropic had all the compute, they'd probably be doing Well north of a hundred billion dollars today. Maybe a 150.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 9:13 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Jul 21, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Smith: U.S. will start depleting gas storage in 2028 from AI and LNG
“Our work suggests that 26, 27 natural gas is, is appropriately supplied. But as we get into 28, and you plug in this compute, and you assign gas to very specific assets as they're plugged in as well, and you continue to export LNG as we're planning to do with …”
Matt Smith Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 1:57 Why Natural Gas Will Be AI’s Next Great Shortage · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Altman: Compute is the main barrier to pervasive always-on AI agents
“Compute, man. Let's imagine that we could build this product. This product that could just do exactly what I said for all your stuff.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 29:38 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI Under-Secured Compute Despite Early Aggressive Bets
“We did under do it.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 4:43 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI's de-risking runs use as much compute as full runs 18 months ago
“Our biggest de-risks now for upcoming runs are as big as like the entire compute run from 18 months ago or something.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 21:09 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Aug 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Expiring GPU Contracts Will Reprice Higher and Settle AI ROI Doubts
“Essentially, you have the contracted base of installed compute trading at a massive discount to the current spot market. And as those contracts roll off, and Compute gets repriced higher, and Spock can decline, and Compute will still get repriced higher. You k…”
Gavin Baker Aug 4, 2026 ▶ 4:17 Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Aug 4, 2026 bearish
What-if
Baker: Anthropic would have dominated AI race with OpenAI's compute aggression
“Anthropic, if they had been as aggressive on compute as OpenAI had been, they would have run away with it.”
Gavin Baker Aug 4, 2026 ▶ 47:33 Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Aug 11, 2026 bearish
Insight
Vishria: Energy Bottlenecks Will Lead to Fewer and More Expensive AI Tokens
“If energy is what you need for compute and is the bottleneck, And there's unlimited demand for intelligence. Then it stands to reason that if we have a lot less energy, then we will have a lot less intelligence or a lot less tokens or a lot more expensive toke…”
Eric Vishria Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 30:27 Everyone Is Still Undersizing the AI Market | Eric Vishria · Invest Like The Best
Aug 18, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thompson: Current AI CapEx will not yield compute until 2028-2029
“So, today when we say there's not enough compute, it's not like all the money that the companies are putting in today manifests in compute tomorrow. No, it all manifests in compute in twenty-twenty-eight and twenty-twenty-nine.”
Ben Thompson Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 32:15 What Happens When the AI Boom Runs Out of Money · Invest Like The Best
Aug 18, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thompson: Compute shortage will worsen over the next few years
“TSMC, Decreased their rate of growth in twenty-twenty-three and twenty-twenty-four and twenty-twenty-five. So, like, we're, our shortage of compute is going to get worse in the next few years.”
Ben Thompson Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 31:56 What Happens When the AI Boom Runs Out of Money · Invest Like The Best
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