The Ledger
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Shane Legg estimates a 50% chance of AGI by 2028
“So I actually came up with an estimate then that it was about a 50% chance of what I call AGI now by about 20 28.”
Shane Legg defines AGI as matching all typical human cognitive tasks
“And to be clear, the way I define artificial general intelligence is it's an artificial agent that can do all the kinds of cognitive tasks that people can typically do and possibly more.”
Shane Legg argues there is no feasible global way to halt AI
“Intelligence is profoundly valuable for many, many reasons, and I don't know of any way to globally get everybody to stop using and developing this very, very valuable technology. And so, as far as I can see, this will be developed”
Legg: AI will surpass human-level AGI to achieve artificial superintelligence
“So that definition of AGI to me is the bar, that's the entry level into AGI, but I do not think that's where it stops. I think you start going into what they call ASI, or artificial superintelligence, and it may be the case in certain dimensions is the scaling…”
OpenAI realized Google's Transformer architecture scaled far better than anyone appreciated
“Another company, OpenAI, latched onto the idea that this is, in fact, extremely scalable, more scalable than anybody had appreciated. And they just basically scaled it up and scaled it up and scaled it up.”
DeepMind folded all known proteins; 1.7 million researchers use the database
“What we did is we folded all the proteins known to science, and we released them all to the public for free, so you can find them all online on the internet, and you can look at the shapes and so on, and we've had about 1.7 million researchers use that resourc…”
Shane Legg says the AI transition will rival the Industrial Revolution
“We're going into something which is at least as profound as the Industrial Revolution.”
Shane Legg argues AI safety cannot be solved by private companies alone
“It's not going to be solved
By some people in a company somewhere.
That's not how it's going to work.
It's something that society as a whole needs to engage with, because that's the nature of the transformation which is working.”
Legg: DeepMind's 2010 business plan was one sentence to build AGI
“Our business plan from September, 2010 had our logo on the front and DeepMind, and it had one sentence, which is build the world's first artificial general intelligence.”
Google merged DeepMind and Google Brain because separate scaling made no sense
“It was becoming clear that extremely scaled up models were going to become a really important thing in the future. And, you know, for Google it was important that we had the biggest and best models. And it doesn't make sense to have, you know, two different gr…”
Legg: Modern supercomputers exceed human brain limits by 6-7 orders of magnitude
“So if you look at energy consumption, physical space, speed of signal transmission, and the frequency on the signal, you're looking at six to seven orders of magnitude in every direction, just with present day technology.”