why aren't all 43 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
"Quality fade" from margin-seeking factories is a major Chinese manufacturing risk
“I had several product problems like that that came from a manufacturer trying to improve his margins, and you know, this is something that in the manufacturing world people call quality fade, And it's a big problem when you manufacture through China.”
What-if
Hetrick: TRX would not exist if it had accepted early Costco pilot
“In our case, you know, we had product problems that ended up coming out shortly after We passed this up. Had I not passed it up for that reason, there would have never been a T-Rex.”
Insight
Hetrick: Investors claiming operational synergies usually have shallow involvement
“I would say that's more common than not, right? Yes. Investors who claim to be bringing the famous word is, you know, synergies to what you're doing and experience because they will show you that they were involved in some, you know, successful brand that you …”
Insight
Randy Hetrick: Rushing into retail without customer demand permanently burns channels
“When you think about re about retail,
It's pretty easy really to sell in, but what you really got to focus on with retail is sell through, right?
And that's where a lot of early brands that their buyers are out there in retail looking for things to buy.
The…”
Insight
Hetrick: Founders must prioritize early profitability over artificial hypergrowth
“Get profitable as early as possible and stay profitable and make, make decisions from a mindset that, you know, I want to try to maintain profitability. And even if I have to go underwater a little bit to do it, a little bit's fine. Deeply, less fine. And beca…”
Insight
Enforcing a patent costs at least $500,000 even if settled pre-trial
“The rule of thumb is that it takes about 50,000 bucks to file a patent, right? But the absolute minimum that one should expect when you try to enforce it Is half a million. I mean, that's on the, that's if you settle, right, before court.”
Insight
Hetrick: Digital Food Advertising Fails Without Smell and Taste
“Cause look, you can spend a lot of money putting your foods avatar in front of me, but if I can't smell it and I can't taste it, it's lost in the noise. Whereas if you put it in my mouth and I'm like, oh my gosh, this is delicious. Now you've got me, right?”
Insight
Hetrick: Giving equity to authentic influencers reduces early customer acquisition costs
“Getting good authentic influencers on board is a good way to do it because, you know, those folks have large followings who trust their you know, what they say and are interested in what they do. And that can be a relatively inexpensive way to do it You're goi…”
Insight
Hetrick: Simple concepts make the best franchise businesses
“The things that make The best franchises are the simplest concepts, right? The more complicated the concept, the less well a franchise structure works because all of that complication has to be trained into your franchisee or the whole thing falls on its face.”
Insight
Hetrick: 'Quality fade' from margin-seeking suppliers is a major risk in China
“A manufacturer trying to improve his margins, and you know, this is something that in the manufacturing world, people call quality fade, and it's a big problem when you manufacture through China.”
Opinion
Hetrick: Counterfeiting is the biggest challenge in consumer products
“Yeah, that, that is the single biggest problem that I have faced in my career as an entrepreneur, and frankly, it's a problem that is bedeviling, you know, the entire consumer product space these days.”
Insight
Hetrick: Enforcing a patent costs at least $500k even with early settlement
“That the rule of thumb is that it takes about 50,000 bucks to file a patent, right? But the absolute minimum that, that one should expect when you try to enforce it Is half a million. I mean, that's on the, that's if you settle, right, before court.”
Assertion Supported
Hetrick: TRX won a unanimous $6.8M jury verdict in infringement lawsuit
“We got a unanimous verdict had a jury award of 6.8 million in damages, which is quite something, you know, it implies, I don't know, something like 20 to 22 to twenty-five million in lost sales”
Insight
Hetrick: TRX positioned as 'Switzerland' across fitness disciplines
“We became Switzerland. And by that, I mean, whatever else it is that you do for your exercise, we want to be a part of that. And we've been very successful at embedding ourselves. I mean, just about every one of the activities that you mentioned a minute ago T…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stanford dean advised Randy Hetrick to abandon TRX for corporate jobs
“Well, I mean, at the time, Garth Saloner was one of my, he ended up becoming the dean there. He was one of my professors, and he said, you know, Randy, I can get you any number of great paying jobs in Silicon Valley with your background. You know, don't do thi…”
Opinion
Counterfeiting is the single biggest challenge in the consumer product space
“That, that is the single biggest problem that I have faced in my
Career as an entrepreneur, and frankly, it's a problem that is bedeviling
You know, the entire consumer product space these days.”
Assertion Supported
TRX won a $6.8 million jury verdict against patent counterfeiters
“We got a unanimous verdict. We had a jury award of 6.8 million in damages”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
TRX revenue immediately jumped 40% year-over-year after winning its patent lawsuit
“Our business almost immediately leapt up by 40% year over year and seems to be growing rapidly.”
Assertion Supported
Randy Hetrick partnered with Jack Daly to buy back distressed TRX
“I went out and found a good buddy, my good pal Jack Daly, and we hatched a plot to buy TRX out of what was kind of a troubled situation Let's just say.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hetrick: Traditional calisthenics fail to prepare soldiers for heavy gear climbing
“Push-ups and squats and sit-ups, and none of that gets you really prepared to climb the side of a freighter with, you know, 80 pounds of gear on your back”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stanford dean Garth Saloner urged Hetrick against founding TRX
“Garth Saloner was one of my, he ended up becoming the dean there. He was one of my professors, and he said, you know, Randy, I can get you any number of great paying jobs in Silicon Valley with your background. You know, don't do this.”
Insight
Hetrick: High-margin one-size-fits-all goods are prime counterfeit targets
“So if you have a one size fits all, say for instance, a Gucci bag or a Louis Vuitton bag that has a high sale price, but the perception of a low cost of goods, you end up being a perfect target.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hetrick: Investigators discovered about 20 Chinese factories counterfeiting TRX trainers
“And they found about 20 different factories scattered around China that were all creating fake counterfeit TRX suspension trainers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Market confusion from counterfeits drove TRX to negative revenue in 2014
“We really experienced a flattening and actually a negative growth for a couple of years, 20 14 and 20 15.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hetrick: TRX spent $2.5M over 3 years on patent litigation
“We ended up, in our action, ended up spending about two and a half million bucks, and it took about three years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hetrick: TRX sales leapt 40% year-over-year following court victory
“Our business almost immediately leapt up by 40% year over year and seems to be growing.”
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Hetrick projected TRX annual revenue to exceed $50 million in 2018
“Yeah, we'll be a little north of that this year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hetrick predicts TRX revenue will soon be 40% digital content and education
“And I think pretty quickly will be 6040. 60 being gear still and 40 being the soft goods in the form of education revenues and then digital content.”
Opinion
Traditional calisthenics fail to prepare soldiers for weighted freight climbing
“Push-ups and squats and sit-ups, and none of that gets you really prepared to climb the side of a freighter with, you know, 80 pounds of gear on your back”
Assertion Supported
Drew Brees featured the TRX in his Sports Illustrated comeback story
“And he had a opportunity with Sports Illustrated early on to do a story about his comeback, and he was very kind and, you know, just to sort of scratch my back, made sure that the picture that they featured was him training on the suspension trainer.”
Insight
High-price, low-cost-perception products are the perfect targets for counterfeiters
“So if you have a one size fits all, say for instance, a Gucci bag or a Louis Vuitton bag that has a high sale price, but the perception of a low cost of goods, you end up being a perfect target.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Private investigators found 20 Chinese factories manufacturing counterfeit TRX gear
“And they found about 20 different factories scattered around China that were all creating fake counterfeit TRX suspension trainers.”
Disclosure
TRX spent $2.5 million and three years fighting patent infringement
“We ended up, in our action, ended up spending about two and a half million bucks, and it took about three years.”
Disclosure
TRX surpassed $50 million in annual revenue in 2017
“Yeah, we'll be a little north of that this year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
TRX revenue is shifting from purely hardware to 40% digital and education
“And I think pretty quickly will be 6040. 60 being gear still and 40 being the soft goods in the form of education revenues and then digital content.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hetrick: Early TRX inventory batch arrived with handles that cracked immediately
“One of the very early large lots of inventory we ordered arrived, and, you know, we'd sold out of everything, so of course we were out of stock by the time it arrived, and desperate to ship. Well, we hooked up the first suspension trainer, leaned back, and the…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hetrick: Navy SEAL parachute rigger made early TRX prototypes for beer
“I had a friend who was a parachute rigger out in the peril loft who started making them for guys in exchange for a case of beer.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hetrick: Stanford coaches validated TRX prototype across diverse sports teams
“While I was at Stanford, I was able to go out and train in the athlete training center, and I would show up with my straps and hook them up, you know, in this world-class training facility, and over the course of six or eight months, I mean, darn near every on…”
Disclosure
Hetrick turned Stanford Business School projects into an incubator for TRX
“On every class project that got assigned, I turned into a incubator, if you will, for what would become TRX, and, you know, we had events sometimes on Fridays, the blow off steam, they were called liquidity preference Functions, which basically meant tapping a…”
Disclosure
Hetrick bootstrapped TRX prototypes and IP with $50,000 in personal savings
“I had about 50 grand in savings, and I put it all into Kind of the first steps, the initial prototypes, and then pursuing a little bit of key intellectual property”
Assertion Supported
Hetrick: Drew Brees featured TRX in a Sports Illustrated comeback story
“He had a opportunity with Sports Illustrated early on to do a story about his comeback, and he was very kind, and, you know, just to sort of scratch my back, made sure that the picture that they featured was him training on the suspension trainer”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
SEAL parachute rigger made early TRX prototypes for cases of beer
“And so I had a friend who was a parachute rigger out in the peril loft who started making them for guys in exchange for a case of beer.”
Disclosure
Hetrick invested his entire $50,000 life savings into early TRX prototypes
“I had about 50 grand in savings, and I put it all into
Kind of the first steps, the initial prototypes, and then pursuing a little bit of key intellectual property, which thank goodness became really important even recently.”