why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Electric planes will outnumber gas-powered planes in the air by 2030
“By 2030, you'll see more electric airplanes in the air than gas powered airplanes.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
BETA plans to operate commercially in the United States by 2025
“And yes, by 20, 25, they're doing commercial operations here in the U S and then we just basically build them as fast as we can.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Point-to-point mesh networks will soon replace hub-and-spoke express air cargo
“So the hub and spoke network of yesterday will be replaced by a mesh network of the future where We have already saturated, as you pointed out, Memphis and Louisville. You can't put any more jets in there every night.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Electric cargo planes will bypass standard airports within four to six years
“In the near future, the next few years, they'll go to the airport only because of regulatory challenges of putting off airport landing sites. But in the next four to six years, what'll happen is these aircraft will actually go to the distribution center, which…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aviation will become transportation's top carbon emitter by 2035 without intervention
“So, so with that as a foundation and the fact that new technology isn't being adopted by 2035, if we don't do anything about aviation, it will be the biggest producer of carbon emissions and transportation.”