The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Smith: Ingredients labeled as natural vanilla extract are typically chemical extractives
“So, like, when you see, like, natural vanilla extract, the one thing you can be sure of is that is not vanilla. It is typically chemical extractives”
Smith: Simple Mills became Amazon's top-selling muffin mix ahead of Martha White
“Full stop. It was probably something like 50 to a hundred units a day, and Martha White was number two.”
Simple Mills Is #1 Natural Cracker, Cookie, and Baking Brand
“Today we are the number one largest natural cracker, cookie, and baking mix brand in the natural channel”
Smith: In 2012, the Paleo Movement Was Nascent and Fringe
“And back in 2012, which is when I really had this realization, paleo was just like, and it's in a very nascent form. There were just like these fringe bloggers out there”
Smith: Simple Mills was named after $3,000 domain price blocked 'Simple Foods'
“At first, I wanted to name it Simple Foods, and I went out and searched the domain name for that, and it was 3000 dollars, and I couldn't afford that. So I was like, okay, what's better than Simple Foods, and came up with Simple Mills, and the domain name for …”
Whole Foods' first Simple Mills order was just 12 muffin mix bags
“And then they placed their first PO three months later. And that PO is something like two cases of muffin mix, which would be 12 units.”
Smith spent roughly $200 on kitchen rent in first six months
“I think across the first six months of manufacturing the product, I probably only spent 200 dollars on the kitchen.”
Katlin Smith: Danielle Walker's Facebook post sold out Simple Mills in an hour
“I think it was more focused on the retail path, but a few months later, a influencer, what's now called an influencer, discovered the product and wrote about it on her Facebook page, which just kind of astounded me, and we sold out of the product in probably a…”
Early Simple Mills investment thesis was becoming the next Betty Crocker
“Since I started the company, I did always see expanding into other areas, but the investment thesis was largely based around being the next Betty Crocker.”
Simple Mills entered crackers after founder baked them from cake mix
“We thought about cereal, but we ended up going into crackers actually after I took our Cake mix home, and for whatever reason, decided to make crackers out of it and put it in my oven. And I brought them in the next day, and all of us sat around and said that'…”
Smith pitched Whole Foods buyers by showing up unannounced with muffins
“So I came up with this plan where we would go to every Whole Foods region, and we would email them the day before and say, I'm going to be in your regional office. I'm going to bring you baked muffins. Please, please, please meet with me for five minutes. I ca…”