why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Healy capitalized his early business by speculating on peanut contracts
“I had a broker. I was buying all my peanuts through, and he tipped me off that there was gonna be a big crop failure that year because of drought, and so I went very bullish. I speculated, which was, Really crazy. And I contracted way, way more nuts than I act…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Healy was fired without severance from the communal businesses he founded
“I was the progenitor of all the businesses in this community. I was always coming up with the next vision and next products, and I think that I was just a threat to kind of what was a movement to slow it down and make it a little more conservative, so I was, S…”
Disclosure
Healy secured a $10,000 bank loan by offering Mount Bachelor ski passes
“I got to know a local banker in Salem who happened to be a avid skier at, in Mount Bachelor, and so I talked him into Giving me a 10,000 dollar working capital loan, and I sweetened the pot with a bunch of free passes to Mount Batchelor.”
Assertion Supported
Healy: Russet Burbank potatoes yield higher caramelization and flavor in chips
“We chose the Russet Burbank potato because it's, it produces the highest natural sugars, it wants to caramelize with the temperatures, and you get a darker colored product, but there's more flavor.”
Insight
Healy: Fryer oil temperature variation creates the signature kettle chip crunch
“What we later learned was that temperature variation is what Really creates the character of a hand-cooked chip, and the, that extra crunchiness.”
What-if
Healy: Kettle Chips would have failed without profits from nut business
“Kettle chips would have never made it. Without the nuts. We had the nut operation.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Healy: All five major UK supermarket chains ordered Kettle Chips in one week
“The beginning of June, suddenly the product just switched on. It just, word of mouth, Clicked, and we just got deluged with orders, and that's when all five of the supermarket chains all called. In that same week, they all wanted it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Healy: Kona Brewing lost about $20,000 monthly for several years
“It kind of plateaued at a certain sales that Causing it to lose about 20,000 dollars a month. And this went on not for months, but for several years.”
Assertion Supported
Healy: Kettle Foods reached $100M in sales before selling minority stake
“Yes, we were, by that point, you know, we're doing about a hundred million dollars in sales scaling and scaled, but Tim and I were the board of directors.”
Assertion Supported
Healy: Kettle Foods grew 50% under Catterton before Lion Capital buyout
“Yeah, we had grown the business by 50%, and as a board, we agreed that if a certain dollar amount offer came in, then we would consider it.”
Disclosure
Healy declined an advisory role and immediately walked away after buyout
“Yeah, I didn't you know, we were, Tim and I were given a small incentive to be advisors for a year, but we both sat in on the first conference call with the Operator that Lion Capital had brought in to oversee the company, a Scotsman, very dynamic, forceful in…”
Disclosure
Healy: Only borrowed money from father once to launch distribution truck
“I talked my father into loaning me a little bit of money to buy an old refrigerated truck. It was the only time I ever borrowed money from him, and I started distributing raw milk, and so it was initially dairy-oriented,”
Insight
Healy: Kettle Chips was inspired by Maui Chips sourcing Oregon potatoes
“Well, if this guy can make such a splash and be in the Wall Street Journal and have this kind of cult following, and he's bringing his potatoes all the way from Oregon, and I'm based in Oregon, I can do this.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kettle Chips Sold Out Across Three London Stations on Test Weekend
“Tim had made a connection with a small group of convenience stores inside London train stations, and they'd agreed to let us put kettle chips, display them, give them the product for free, and they could keep all the revenue, but they had to give us, be willin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Healy: Kettle Foods largely self-funded rapid UK factory expansion
“We had to keep expanding the factory and buying more equipment, and those were big investments, but we were able to you know, we had a small banking relationship, but largely we were self-funded in our growth, which was pretty amazing, actually.”