why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Scholl: Overture is designed to be profitable at $5,000 fares
“And then for Overture One, we've said, look, we want to focus on business class. And so we've designed that airplane such that it will be profitable for airlines at fares a quarter of what was charged on Concorde.”
Prediction Partly held up
Scholl: Boom will produce first Overture by 2026, test in 2027
“We're breaking ground on the plant to build it, and we will be in production by the end of 24. We'll have the first airplane in 26, and we'll start flight testing it in 27.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Scholl: Boom aims for Overture passenger certification by end of 2029
“And our goal is to spend two years in that flight test campaign and then be certified to carry passengers by the end of 2029.”
Opinion
Scholl: Groupon had $100B potential but IPO'd before operational readiness
“My synthesis of Groupon is it's a story of massively lost potential. In, in, in my view, that company had all the potential to be worth 30 or a hundred billion dollars and really to have earned it. But they made kind of one critical mistake, which was taking t…”
Insight
Scholl: Successor executives optimize companies instead of pushing product boundaries
“Founder led companies tend to push what the product can do. And then when the founders retire, what happens in those companies? Well, they promote the most successful executive. That reported to them who by definition is really different than the founder becau…”
Assertion Supported
Scholl: XB-1 is the first independently developed supersonic jet in history
“This is the first independently developed supersonic jet ever. Like previously it's been governance and military.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scholl: All long-haul airplanes will ultimately adopt synthetic fuel
“This is what I think ultimately every long-haul airplane is going to do. This is the way we decarbonize long-haul air travel.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2026
Scholl: Overture meets latest subsonic noise standards
“So this meets the same most stringent noise standards that apply to latest generation subsonic airplanes.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Scholl: Overture will fly Tokyo to Seattle in 4.5 hours
“Just about the longest non-stop route would be Tokyo to Seattle. In four and a half hours, and just pause on that for a second, four and a half hours across the Pacific.”
Assertion Supported
Scholl: Boom secured major airline orders with nonrefundable deposits
“We've already built history's first independently developed supersonic jet. We've already gotten major airlines to place orders and make nonrefundable deposits.”
Insight
Scholl: Airplanes are tightly coupled machines, unlike software architecture
“Great software is loosely coupled, like one piece of our code, if we change it, shouldn't affect what another piece of our code does. But great airplanes are very tightly coupled, highly integrated machines.”
Disclosure
Scholl: Boom built XB-1 demonstrator to make mistakes before Overture
“We did XB one because we knew we would make mistakes and we wanted to make the mistakes on a small, simpler airplane before we went and did that the big airplane, because those learnings would be what would enable the big airplane overture to be a success.”
Assertion Supported
Scholl: Amazon was the exclusive launch retailer for the Segway
“Amazon back then was the exclusive retailer for the Segway.”