why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Trout: Coca-Cola invested in Health-Ade Kombucha
“I was extremely proud and am extremely proud that we've been able to build something literally from nothing from that table to something that the biggest beverage company in the world would want to invest at this level.”
Assertion Supported
Health-Ade projected $200M in retail kombucha sales for 2020
“By the way, according to the company, HealthAid is on track to sell two hundred million dollars worth of kombucha in retail stores this year.”
What-if
Trout: Health-Ade made the right choice taking early outside investors
“So I know if I was back in that position, I really still would have no choice. But to be honest, they helped us a lot in the beginning. They helped us build forecasts and get into the right distribution. And so, honestly, I think we did exactly right.”
Insight
Trout: Beverage distributors demand pre-existing retail accounts before signing brands
“But then the catch-twenty-two is the distributor won't usually take you on unless you have some stores. Like, they don't want to build you from scratch. So they want to know, oh, you've got Gelson's on board? Okay, we'll take you on.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Health-Ade exhausted its $2M Series A funding within a year
“I remember when we got the two million bucks, it was like, oh my gosh, we're good. Like, let's build this now, baby. And then it was like, gone a year later.”
Disclosure
Trout: Health-Ade originally saw kombucha as temporary placeholder for hair loss product
“When we decided to sell the kombucha, we hadn't given up yet on the hair loss idea. We just kind of realized it was going to be harder to make than we could make in the time that we needed to make it by. So it was like, we still thought the big idea was hair l…”
Assertion Supported
Trout: Health-Ade still brews kombucha in 2.5-gallon cookie jars
“We were making it in the same jars we make it today. Two and a half gallon cookie jars from Bed Bath & Beyond.”
Assertion Supported
Raz: First Beverage acquired a controlling stake in Health-Ade Kombucha
“Since we last spoke, the firm that was HealthAid's initial investor, First Beverage, well, they acquired a controlling stake in the brand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Global anecdotal evidence suggested kombucha SCOBYs could regrow hair
“I had reported that basically I found all this anecdotal evidence, like all these People all over the world just talking about using a kombucha SCOBY on their head to regrow hair.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Health-Ade scaled early retail with 20 part-time, commission-only sales reps
“We had some people that worked hourly for us in the brewery to help us. And then we also had some independent sales reps that got paid a commission. So let's say we had about 20 of those individuals that were working like some five, six hours a week, so not, n…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Global anecdotal evidence suggested kombucha SCOBY could regrow hair
“I had reported that basically I found all this anecdotal evidence, like all these people all over the world just talking about using a kombucha SCOBY on their head to regrow hair.”
Assertion Supported
Health-Ade still brews commercial kombucha in 2.5-gallon glass cookie jars
“We were making it in the same jars we make it today. Two and a half gallon cookie jars from Bed Bath & Beyond.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Health-Ade burned through its initial $2M investment in one year
“I remember when we got the two million bucks, it was like, oh my gosh, we're good. Like, let's build this now, baby. And then it was like, gone a year later. And it's not that we were reckless at all. It's just the capital for growth is really intense and imme…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Health-Ade funded its first filling line with $60,000 from parents
“The first time we really needed money, we needed money to buy our first filling line, which already we were past the cake bake shop stage. It was the next stage, but we asked both of our parents for that. Vanessa asked her dad, and I asked my dad, and they gav…”
Disclosure
Trout: Health-Ade co-founders split equity equally in thirds from the start
“The three of us were equally devoted, dedicated, put the same amount of work into health aid. So we were, yeah, third, a third all the way and always have been.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Health-Ade self-distributed for two years using a van with coolers
“We created a whole self-distribution model for a good two years. We ended up buying a van or, you know, leasing a van, a big white van. It wasn't refrigerated, but we put a bunch of coolers in there.”
Disclosure
Trout: Co-founders secured a farmers market stall before developing their product
“Vanessa's friend of a friend, I don't know if she actually ran the farmer's market, but she was one of the leading positions at a farmer's market organization in L.A., one of the biggest. And she had called us to say, listen, one of the farmers is dipping out …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Health-Ade made up to $1,500 per day at farmers markets
“There were days in the summer that we were making 1500 bucks in a market.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Amex denied Health-Ade's request to extend $50,000 credit limit
“We had a 50,000 dollar credit limit, and we just assumed that Amex would extend our credit because we were good about paying it in full every month, you know, so we were like, oh, it's not going to be a problem. I mean, we've been great customers, you know, an…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Health-Ade bartered retail staffing for free production space at Cake Bake Shop
“We found a, it was called Cake Bake Shop in Manhattan Beach, and the owner's name was Laura, and she was closed on Sundays and Mondays. And in exchange for us opening on Sundays and Mondays and manning her shop, she let us use all the extra space she had for f…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: At least half of Health-Ade's early farmers market customers were repeat buyers
“At least half of our customers were repeat. And then the other half were new, which was so cool.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trout: Health-Ade made up to $1,500 daily at farmers markets in 2012
“There were days in the summer that we were making 1500 bucks in a market.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Health-Ade bartered weekend shopkeeping labor for free commercial kitchen space
“And in exchange for us opening on Sundays and Mondays and manning her shop, she let us use all the extra space she had for free.”