why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps is five to seven years away from a billion dollars
“We've got a good five to seven years to continue to build towards that billion dollars.”
Insight
Ali: Economies of scale do not automatically unlock higher gross margins
“Economies of scale don't necessarily unlock incremental gross margin. You need to challenge your bill of materials, challenge the way it's being produced, challenge everything to figure out, okay,
Do I want an artisanal one-off product because of the price po…”
Insight
Ali: Getting products into retail stores is easier than sustaining sales velocity
“Getting into the retailer is honestly the easiest part of the process. It's staying and performing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Co-founder Rashid Ali stayed part-time until Chomps hit $20M revenue
“I went full-time first. I think we were doing in like the four or 500,000 range, and then Rasheed didn't come on until we were doing like twenty million. So it was a big, like, big gap.”
Insight
Maldonado: CPG startups must target incremental customers, not incumbent giants
“I still would never even think about trying to compete with the big guys in the space. Right. It just, it doesn't work. And I would, we would, they would bleed us to death. Like it just wouldn't work. But the reason we've been successful is because we serve an…”
Prediction Held up
Maldonado: Chomps is approaching $500M in retail sales in 2024
“We'll do somewhere around the, we're approaching the half a billion dollar mark in retail sales this year.”
Disclosure
Maldonado: Chomps rejected Trader Joe's private-label deal to avoid managing two brands
“The specific ask, you know, they wanted us to do a private label product line firm, which would have been a huge undertaking for a small team like ours. It was just me and Rashid working full time, and it was hard enough to manage one brand, and as a private, …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Trader Joe's first Chomps PO was for 1.1 million sticks
“It was. 1.1 million sticks. And you know, when we saw that first PO, like that's where I was like, this is it. This is what's going to put us on the radar. It's going to change everything. And it was larger than the previous year altogether in a single PO.”
Assertion Supported
Ali: Chomps valued at about $200M in 2022 minority deal
“About 200.”
Disclosure
Ali: Chomps shifted beef sourcing to Australia over US quality issues
“We were, we had a few domestic partners, but we actually started having some quality challenges because I think the way that they process it and measure the lean point, it's a, they call it core drilling where they'll, they'll drill and measure and get an aver…”
Assertion Supported
Maldonado: Chomps exceeded $100 million in revenue
“We're going to be exceeding the, we have exceeded that, that nine figure range of revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps can grow for two years without new products
“We can grow with our existing line. We don't need to launch more products to grow, at least in the next two years.”
Assertion Supported
Raz: Chomps aimed at male gym-goers, but found most buyers are moms
“The guys that, that created that brand were really targeting, you know, men who were going to the gym who wanted to, like, hit a protein. The majority of their customers are moms, on-the-go moms, and that's what they started to see very rapidly.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Chomps once received a single purchase order for 1.1 million sticks
“1.1 million sticks. And it was larger than the previous year altogether in a single PO.”
Insight
Maldonado: CPG founders must pitch retail buyers on incrementality, not cannibalization
“One of the stories that, that Rashid and I were able to get with chomps, it was from the data that we had was incrementality, meaning we're bringing new customers to the set. You need to be able to find a way to tell that story to the buyer, because they need …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Chomps' core consumer base is over 70% female
“Our core consumer is over 70% female.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps brought 40% new consumers into jerky category at one retailer
“And I think also there's one stat, like with one of our retailers, we were bringing 40% new folks to the jerky set.”
Disclosure
Ali matched Maldonado's tiny $3,250 initial investment to co-found Chomps
“I mentioned how much had he invested and he was like, it was at 32 53,250 dollars, I think is what he had put up. So I cut a check and match that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps reached $100M+ in revenue with fewer than 40 employees
“We're just under 40 right now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Trader Joe's order required 150,000 lbs of meat vs. normal 10-15k monthly
“So, so 10 to 15 was our normal click. This required us to do about a 150,000 pounds.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Chomps exceeded Trader Joe's sales projections fivefold
“And Trader Joe's, they gave us some projections. They thought that we were going to do, and they kind of let us know their forecast. And we far exceeded the projections, I think by five times.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Uncrate feature proved Chomps had appeal beyond CrossFit and paleo
“Our consumer prior to that was, Primarily CrossFit, paleo, whole 30, like very focused. And uncrate is just like your general guy, right? Where it's like your 20 or 30 something that was just interested in it, and it showed, oh, wow, the product has a lot more…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Chomps found co-packers by tracing USDA legends on competitor packaging
“Each one of these meat sticks has the USDA legend on there. So we had a whole list of people to contact. And then we found one specific one in Missouri, in this very small farm town called Green Top, Missouri”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Chomps still uses its original beef stick recipe today
“We landed on that original stick recipe that is the same exact recipe we use today, and it only took us a few tries.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rashid Ali: Every new Trader Joe's SKU nearly doubled Chomps' business
“I mean, Trader Joe's, every time we launched another SKU, the business would almost double.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Chomps raised Trader Joe's bridge financing from eight personal investors
“And we raised money from probably eight different investors that put up between a hundred to 200, a little more. Some of them had a little more.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maldonado: Chomps received 10 to 20 daily orders in year one
“It was a handful, right? Like, 10, 20.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps operates three manufacturing facilities and three packaging lines
“No, I mean, we've, we have now three separate manufacturing facilities and three packaging lines running simultaneously, and we went ahead and ordered six more.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Founder Tension at Chomps Revolved Around Going Full-Time
“A lot of the tension was around when we both would go full-time.”