Nov 10, 2022 · 40m · how-i-built-this
HIBT Lab! Tomorrow.io: Shimon Elkabetz
0:00 / 0:00
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of How I Built This Lab, Guy Raz speaks with Tomorrow.io co-founder and CEO Shimon Elkabetz about revolutionizing meteorological forecasting through proprietary space-based radar satellites, advanced atmospheric modeling, and actionable climate adaptation software.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Guy holds 31.2% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Guy as informed peer 3.7 Guest teaching 5.5 Guest disagreement 0.8 Guy pushing back 0.6
speaking balance: gold is Guy, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 17:27 Politely challenging the adequacy of Hurricane Ian forecasts
Shimon diplomatically rejects Guy's premise that Hurricane Ian was sufficiently predicted, explaining why current radar limitations leave critical uncertainties for emergency evacuation decisions.
Hardest push from Guy ▶ 19:45 Pushing on why existing satellite data cannot be acquiredGuy directly challenges the necessity of launching a proprietary satellite constellation, asking why Tomorrow.io cannot simply buy existing low Earth orbit data.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 20:18 Technical differentiation of satellite radar capabilitiesShimon gives a clear technical breakdown explaining why optical, infrared, and ground-focused SAR satellites cannot penetrate clouds or measure atmospheric precipitation.
Guy holds their own ▶ 37:15 Guy synthesizes global decarbonization and adaptation targetsGuy demonstrates deep subject fluency by synthesizing the challenges of carbon removal, 1.5C warming thresholds, and the pragmatic pivot toward climate adaptation.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Guy as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Guy pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Military Experience and Ideation of Tomorrow.io | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Guy asks Shimon about his background as an Israeli Air Force pilot and how that shaped his focus on weather. Shimon explains how weather was the single most dangerous operational variable in military aviation. | |
| Defining the Global Climate Forecasting Problem | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Guy questions why standard weather apps are insufficient, and Shimon clarifies the distinction between decarbonization and climate risk management. Shimon pushes past simple weather checking to frame climate risk like enterprise cybersecurity. | |
| Building Operational Weather Intelligence for Global Assets | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Guy demonstrates domain understanding by outlining multiple real-world supply chain and infrastructure vulnerabilities caused by volatile weather. Shimon validates this breakdown and explains weather intelligence. | |
| Reimagining Weather Forecasting Beyond Government Monopolies | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | Shimon breaks down the three technical pillars of weather forecasting (observations, models, compute) and highlights the surprising reality of government monopoly over core weather tech. | |
| Mid-Interview Break | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | Following the mid-roll break, Guy asks how Tomorrow.io extracts weather insights from IoT devices. Shimon explains their early 'weather of things' method and why it proved insufficient over oceans and uninstrumented regions. | |
| Closing the Ocean Radar Void and Global Coverage Gaps | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | Shimon educates Guy on the massive global blind spots in radar coverage, noting that over five billion people live outside radar ranges and oceans have zero ground radar coverage. | |
| Space Radar Potential and Industry Feasibility Doubts | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Guy presses on Hurricane Ian as an example of a storm that seemed well-predicted. Shimon clarifies that even slight percentage gains in track accuracy drastically change costly evacuation calls and explains why industry partners said building space radars was impossible. | |
| Constructing the Proprietary Satellite Constellation | 4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | Guy asks why Tomorrow.io cannot simply purchase data from existing LEO satellites. Shimon systematically educates him on satellite sensor types, explaining that existing SAR radars image the ground while Tomorrow.io's radars must image the atmosphere. | |
| Capital Fundraising, Macro Volatility, and Withdrawing the SPAC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | Guy asks about the high capital expenditure required for space missions and asks about the decision to cancel their SPAC IPO. Shimon details navigating macro shifts and capital allocation. | |
| Client Applications and Disrupting Legacy Weather Services | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | Guy asks how these deployments will translate to consumer impact. Shimon explains binary improvements for underserved regions and contrasts Tomorrow.io's proprietary modeling with legacy consumer apps that merely repackage government data. | |
| Second Program Interlude | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Guy inquires about satellite manufacturing architecture and launch timelines. Shimon explains how Tomorrow.io retains proprietary payload IP while contracting out standard satellite bus manufacturing. | |
| Climate Adaptation and the Struggle for Deep Tech Funding | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | Guy prompts a discussion on how extreme heat affects daily labor and economies. Shimon distinguishes mitigation from adaptation and reflects on the frustration of seeing frivolous apps secure funding over deep tech. | |
| Multi-Pillar Deep Tech Execution and Philanthropic Outreach | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Guy questions how a for-profit entity balances monetization with life-saving humanitarian data during emergencies. Shimon details their free public tier and Gates Foundation-backed non-profit arm. | |
| Actionable Climate Adaptation and Closing Thoughts | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Guy synthesizes climate adaptation realities regarding the 1.5C target. Shimon underscores the immediate human consequences on agriculture and food security. | |
| Post-Show Banter: Soccer Stars and Champions League | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Brief, friendly post-show banter regarding European soccer players and Shimon's favorite team Maccabi Haifa. |
Statements from this episode (21)
Elkabetz: Weather Is the Single Most Dangerous Factor in Military Aviation
“Weather is probably the number one variable and the most challenging factor for every training mission, every operational mission. And I was super worried about weather, more than malfunction, more than human error, more than even the enemy.”
Elkabetz: Organizations Must Manage Climate Risk with Software Like Cybersecurity
“Now, what we're saying is that you need to put systems in place and start managing that risk, just like you manage your cybersecurity risk. Okay, you don't imagine a tech company not protecting its servers. With a software solution.”
Tomorrow.io is shifting observation to space because ground IoT data has geographical limits
“Today, I must say, we're going to space to improve observations because the weather of things approach is super cool, super geeky, but It's limited, to be completely honest. You don't have devices over the ocean, you don't have access to devices in every count…”
Elkabetz: Radar Is the Most Important Sensor for Forecast Accuracy
“Most of the agencies actually believe that the most important sensor to drive real-time and forecast accuracy is the Weather radar.”
Elkabetz: Over Five Billion People Live Outside Weather Radar Coverage
“And what we learned is that over five billion people live outside of radar coverage.”
Elkabetz: Radar monitoring over ocean would make hurricane forecasts significantly more reliable
“I think it is pretty agreed upon the scientific community that if we had Good monitoring of hurricanes as they evolve all the way to hitting the mainland with radars, then the forecast accuracy, meaning the output of the models, would have been much more relia…”
Elkabetz: Defense and space industry partners initially called Tomorrow.io's radar impossible
“So we went to partners, you know, from government agencies to big defense companies and space companies to startups, and we asked companies, hey, this is the spec we're looking for because we want to cover the world with active radars. Can you build it? And ev…”
Elkabetz: No existing commercial LEO satellites carry atmospheric radar
“None of them has a radar that is designed to describe the atmosphere. We have imagery satellites. We have infrared satellites that are blocked by the top of the clouds, for example, so they don't see through. And we also have SAR satellites that are actually e…”
Tomorrow.io plans 30-satellite constellation launch starting Q1 2023
“Yeah, we're launching about 30 satellites starting Q-one of twenty-twenty-three. The launches will take throughout twenty-twenty-four as well, and we're launching a combination, it's actually a constellation of two type of sensors.”
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io's full satellite constellation costs roughly $100M
“When we look at the entire constellation cost end to end, including the launches, we're looking at roughly a hundred million dollars.”
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io has raised over $250 million
“We raised north of two hundred and fifty million dollars until today.”
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io would have raised SPAC cash in 2021
“If we did it, you know, in 2021, we would probably be able to raise that money which is really why we wanted to go after it. The significant amount of cash would have enabled us to go after the full business plan, but the macro changed.”
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io satellites will create a binary improvement in global weather monitoring
“In most of the world, it's going to create a binary improvement. What do I mean by that? You go south of the border to Mexico, believe it or not, it's pretty challenging to understand what's happening in real time. If it's raining or not, in Mexico City is an …”
Elkabetz: Pacific satellite coverage will improve entire US West Coast forecast accuracy
“So these winds, where do they come from? They come usually from the Pacific and the Pacific is not monitored. So once you have better coverage of the Pacific, the entire West Coast forecast accuracy will get better.”
Elkabetz: Major weather apps merely repackage government forecasts without proprietary sensing
“They mostly repackage the government forecast, right? They don't run models from the ground up. They don't create sensing technology that dramatically and fundamentally improves weather forecasting accuracy.”
Elkabetz: Ultra-precise global weather forecasting will arrive within 3-4 years
“I believe that with the kind of constellation that we're putting in, in space and the kind of products we're working on, This capability will be available globally, not even in a decade, in let's say three to four years max.”
Tomorrow.io designs its radar payloads in-house and outsources satellite buses
“We definitely Own the IP, we design the payload, we design the entire mission, and we use contractors to help us in doing things that we don't want to do.”
Elkabetz: VC funded dog-walking apps over deep-tech climate solutions
“It wasn't easy to raise money for such a business. It was actually pretty painful. And for me, it was, I don't want to say insulting or offensive, but it was pretty sad to see, you know, dog walking apps raising Three hundred million dollars when you present a…”
Elkabetz: COVID made investors take systemic climate threats seriously
“I think when COVID started, people started to realize that those big threats that we're all worried about and saw in the movies, It can actually happen. And I think now we're starting to see people taking this much more seriously. It wasn't like that in 2016 w…”
Elkabetz: Most Investors Rely on Proven Templates and Lack Deep-Tech Risk Tolerance
“Investors usually look for the, you know, highest return in the shortest amount of time. They look for templates and they look to check all the boxes of things that worked well. And if they go outside of these boxes, then they're taking another risk. So it's n…”