Nov 23, 2023 · 41m · how-i-built-this

The future of driving is autonomous with Dmitri Dolgov of Waymo

Dmitri Dolgov · 21m spoken Guy Raz · 16m spoken Richard Crowdy · 25s spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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In this episode of How I Built This, Guy Raz interviews Waymo co-CEO Dmitri Dolgov to examine the engineering evolution, safety principles, and commercial expansion of autonomous vehicles from DARPA Challenge origins to fully driverless urban fleets.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Guy holds 43.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Guy as informed peer 4.9 Guest teaching 3.7 Guest disagreement 1.4 Guy pushing back 2.1
05100:0015:0030:004:38–7:53 · Guy as informed peer 5/10 Google's Secret 100,000-Mile Autonomous Car Mandate Guy Raz demonstrates strong background knowledge of Google's early 2-year autonomous vehicle challenge, citing specific milestone requirements. Dmitri Dolgov describes the optimism, devious route design by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and the team's sprint to completion.7:54–12:24 · Guy as informed peer 4/10 Unforeseen Real-World Edge Cases and Road Testing Dolgov explains early unpredictable edge cases, such as closed tollbooth gates on the Golden Gate Bridge and falling bicycles. Raz actively supplements the discussion with realistic driving complexities like variable shoulder lanes.12:31–18:05 · Guy as informed peer 5/10 Listener Voice Memo and Mid-Show Sponsor Break Following the mid-roll break, Raz probes the 2013 strategic pivot from driver assist to full autonomy and asks whether Waymo ever considered manufacturing cars. Dolgov clarifies that human driver overreliance forced the shift and explicitly dismisses car manufacturing as outside their scope.18:06–22:04 · Guy as informed peer 5/10 Evolution of the Waymo Driver and First Autonomous Rides Raz recalls the public 2015 Austin ride by Steve Mahan, confirming his familiarity with Waymo's timeline. Dolgov outlines the evolution across hardware generations and the custom safety features built into the early Firefly prototype.22:04–24:36 · Guy as informed peer 6/10 Sensor Suite Architecture: Multi-Modal Fusion vs. Vision-Only Raz introduces the industry debate between Tesla's vision-only philosophy and Waymo's multi-sensor approach. Dolgov educates on the physics distinction between passive optical sensors and active radar/lidar sensors that penetrate adverse weather and high-beam glare.24:37–27:00 · Guy as informed peer 5/10 Commercial Scaling and the Launch of Waymo One Raz recaps the commercial progression from Chandler pilots to broader testing. Dolgov explains the architectural decision to jump directly to fifth-generation Jaguar I-PACE platforms for dense urban environments rather than incrementally expanding older minivans.27:04–30:07 · Guy as informed peer 4/10 Passenger Experience and Overcoming Rider Anxiety Raz brings up rider apprehension and questions how Waymo reassures nervous first-timers. Both Dolgov and Raz bond over the psychological shift where passengers normalize the experience and return to their phones within minutes.30:08–35:10 · Guy as informed peer 5/10 Safety Track Record and Legal Liability Frameworks Raz presses Dolgov on technology misuse and legal liability in hypothetical autonomous vehicle collisions. Dolgov grounds the defense in current highway mortality baselines and confirms Waymo accepts responsibility for driver actions.35:12–41:11 · Guy as informed peer 5/10 Fleet Economics, Commercial Partnerships, and the Future of Urban Mobility Raz challenges the financial viability of ride-hailing versus software licensing. Dolgov firmly pushes back against dismissing ride-hailing economics and defends the viability of personally owned autonomous vehicles within a decade.4:38–7:53 · Guest teaching 3/10 Google's Secret 100,000-Mile Autonomous Car Mandate Guy Raz demonstrates strong background knowledge of Google's early 2-year autonomous vehicle challenge, citing specific milestone requirements. Dmitri Dolgov describes the optimism, devious route design by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and the team's sprint to completion.7:54–12:24 · Guest teaching 4/10 Unforeseen Real-World Edge Cases and Road Testing Dolgov explains early unpredictable edge cases, such as closed tollbooth gates on the Golden Gate Bridge and falling bicycles. Raz actively supplements the discussion with realistic driving complexities like variable shoulder lanes.12:31–18:05 · Guest teaching 4/10 Listener Voice Memo and Mid-Show Sponsor Break Following the mid-roll break, Raz probes the 2013 strategic pivot from driver assist to full autonomy and asks whether Waymo ever considered manufacturing cars. Dolgov clarifies that human driver overreliance forced the shift and explicitly dismisses car manufacturing as outside their scope.18:06–22:04 · Guest teaching 4/10 Evolution of the Waymo Driver and First Autonomous Rides Raz recalls the public 2015 Austin ride by Steve Mahan, confirming his familiarity with Waymo's timeline. Dolgov outlines the evolution across hardware generations and the custom safety features built into the early Firefly prototype.22:04–24:36 · Guest teaching 5/10 Sensor Suite Architecture: Multi-Modal Fusion vs. Vision-Only Raz introduces the industry debate between Tesla's vision-only philosophy and Waymo's multi-sensor approach. Dolgov educates on the physics distinction between passive optical sensors and active radar/lidar sensors that penetrate adverse weather and high-beam glare.24:37–27:00 · Guest teaching 3/10 Commercial Scaling and the Launch of Waymo One Raz recaps the commercial progression from Chandler pilots to broader testing. Dolgov explains the architectural decision to jump directly to fifth-generation Jaguar I-PACE platforms for dense urban environments rather than incrementally expanding older minivans.27:04–30:07 · Guest teaching 2/10 Passenger Experience and Overcoming Rider Anxiety Raz brings up rider apprehension and questions how Waymo reassures nervous first-timers. Both Dolgov and Raz bond over the psychological shift where passengers normalize the experience and return to their phones within minutes.30:08–35:10 · Guest teaching 4/10 Safety Track Record and Legal Liability Frameworks Raz presses Dolgov on technology misuse and legal liability in hypothetical autonomous vehicle collisions. Dolgov grounds the defense in current highway mortality baselines and confirms Waymo accepts responsibility for driver actions.35:12–41:11 · Guest teaching 4/10 Fleet Economics, Commercial Partnerships, and the Future of Urban Mobility Raz challenges the financial viability of ride-hailing versus software licensing. Dolgov firmly pushes back against dismissing ride-hailing economics and defends the viability of personally owned autonomous vehicles within a decade.4:38–7:53 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Google's Secret 100,000-Mile Autonomous Car Mandate Guy Raz demonstrates strong background knowledge of Google's early 2-year autonomous vehicle challenge, citing specific milestone requirements. Dmitri Dolgov describes the optimism, devious route design by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and the team's sprint to completion.7:54–12:24 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Unforeseen Real-World Edge Cases and Road Testing Dolgov explains early unpredictable edge cases, such as closed tollbooth gates on the Golden Gate Bridge and falling bicycles. Raz actively supplements the discussion with realistic driving complexities like variable shoulder lanes.12:31–18:05 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Listener Voice Memo and Mid-Show Sponsor Break Following the mid-roll break, Raz probes the 2013 strategic pivot from driver assist to full autonomy and asks whether Waymo ever considered manufacturing cars. Dolgov clarifies that human driver overreliance forced the shift and explicitly dismisses car manufacturing as outside their scope.18:06–22:04 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Evolution of the Waymo Driver and First Autonomous Rides Raz recalls the public 2015 Austin ride by Steve Mahan, confirming his familiarity with Waymo's timeline. Dolgov outlines the evolution across hardware generations and the custom safety features built into the early Firefly prototype.22:04–24:36 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Sensor Suite Architecture: Multi-Modal Fusion vs. Vision-Only Raz introduces the industry debate between Tesla's vision-only philosophy and Waymo's multi-sensor approach. Dolgov educates on the physics distinction between passive optical sensors and active radar/lidar sensors that penetrate adverse weather and high-beam glare.24:37–27:00 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Commercial Scaling and the Launch of Waymo One Raz recaps the commercial progression from Chandler pilots to broader testing. Dolgov explains the architectural decision to jump directly to fifth-generation Jaguar I-PACE platforms for dense urban environments rather than incrementally expanding older minivans.27:04–30:07 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Passenger Experience and Overcoming Rider Anxiety Raz brings up rider apprehension and questions how Waymo reassures nervous first-timers. Both Dolgov and Raz bond over the psychological shift where passengers normalize the experience and return to their phones within minutes.30:08–35:10 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Safety Track Record and Legal Liability Frameworks Raz presses Dolgov on technology misuse and legal liability in hypothetical autonomous vehicle collisions. Dolgov grounds the defense in current highway mortality baselines and confirms Waymo accepts responsibility for driver actions.35:12–41:11 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Fleet Economics, Commercial Partnerships, and the Future of Urban Mobility Raz challenges the financial viability of ride-hailing versus software licensing. Dolgov firmly pushes back against dismissing ride-hailing economics and defends the viability of personally owned autonomous vehicles within a decade.4:38–7:53 · Guy pushing back 1/10 Google's Secret 100,000-Mile Autonomous Car Mandate Guy Raz demonstrates strong background knowledge of Google's early 2-year autonomous vehicle challenge, citing specific milestone requirements. Dmitri Dolgov describes the optimism, devious route design by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and the team's sprint to completion.7:54–12:24 · Guy pushing back 1/10 Unforeseen Real-World Edge Cases and Road Testing Dolgov explains early unpredictable edge cases, such as closed tollbooth gates on the Golden Gate Bridge and falling bicycles. Raz actively supplements the discussion with realistic driving complexities like variable shoulder lanes.12:31–18:05 · Guy pushing back 2/10 Listener Voice Memo and Mid-Show Sponsor Break Following the mid-roll break, Raz probes the 2013 strategic pivot from driver assist to full autonomy and asks whether Waymo ever considered manufacturing cars. Dolgov clarifies that human driver overreliance forced the shift and explicitly dismisses car manufacturing as outside their scope.18:06–22:04 · Guy pushing back 1/10 Evolution of the Waymo Driver and First Autonomous Rides Raz recalls the public 2015 Austin ride by Steve Mahan, confirming his familiarity with Waymo's timeline. Dolgov outlines the evolution across hardware generations and the custom safety features built into the early Firefly prototype.22:04–24:36 · Guy pushing back 3/10 Sensor Suite Architecture: Multi-Modal Fusion vs. Vision-Only Raz introduces the industry debate between Tesla's vision-only philosophy and Waymo's multi-sensor approach. Dolgov educates on the physics distinction between passive optical sensors and active radar/lidar sensors that penetrate adverse weather and high-beam glare.24:37–27:00 · Guy pushing back 1/10 Commercial Scaling and the Launch of Waymo One Raz recaps the commercial progression from Chandler pilots to broader testing. Dolgov explains the architectural decision to jump directly to fifth-generation Jaguar I-PACE platforms for dense urban environments rather than incrementally expanding older minivans.27:04–30:07 · Guy pushing back 2/10 Passenger Experience and Overcoming Rider Anxiety Raz brings up rider apprehension and questions how Waymo reassures nervous first-timers. Both Dolgov and Raz bond over the psychological shift where passengers normalize the experience and return to their phones within minutes.30:08–35:10 · Guy pushing back 4/10 Safety Track Record and Legal Liability Frameworks Raz presses Dolgov on technology misuse and legal liability in hypothetical autonomous vehicle collisions. Dolgov grounds the defense in current highway mortality baselines and confirms Waymo accepts responsibility for driver actions.35:12–41:11 · Guy pushing back 4/10 Fleet Economics, Commercial Partnerships, and the Future of Urban Mobility Raz challenges the financial viability of ride-hailing versus software licensing. Dolgov firmly pushes back against dismissing ride-hailing economics and defends the viability of personally owned autonomous vehicles within a decade.

speaking balance: gold is Guy, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Guy 74.9% · guest 25.1%0:00 · Guy 74.9% · guest 25.1%3:00 · Guy 40.8% · guest 59.2%3:00 · Guy 40.8% · guest 59.2%6:00 · Guy 25.7% · guest 74.3%6:00 · Guy 25.7% · guest 74.3%9:00 · Guy 26% · guest 74%9:00 · Guy 26% · guest 74%12:00 · Guy 64.4% · guest 35.6%12:00 · Guy 64.4% · guest 35.6%15:00 · Guy 24.6% · guest 75.4%15:00 · Guy 24.6% · guest 75.4%18:00 · Guy 56.2% · guest 43.8%18:00 · Guy 56.2% · guest 43.8%21:00 · Guy 29.5% · guest 70.5%21:00 · Guy 29.5% · guest 70.5%24:00 · Guy 26.7% · guest 73.3%24:00 · Guy 26.7% · guest 73.3%27:00 · Guy 62.6% · guest 37.4%27:00 · Guy 62.6% · guest 37.4%30:00 · Guy 39.9% · guest 60.1%30:00 · Guy 39.9% · guest 60.1%33:00 · Guy 47.8% · guest 52.2%33:00 · Guy 47.8% · guest 52.2%36:00 · Guy 34.7% · guest 65.3%36:00 · Guy 34.7% · guest 65.3%39:00 · Guy 55.7% · guest 44.3%39:00 · Guy 55.7% · guest 44.3%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 37:44 Dolgov rejects premise on ride-hailing profitability

Dolgov directly challenges Raz's claim that ride-hailing is not where Waymo will make money, insisting it is a massive, highly profitable opportunity with autonomous vehicle unit economics.

Hardest push from Guy ▶ 34:23 Raz presses on legal liability and fluke crash guarantees

Raz refuses a general safety answer and directly confronts Dolgov on accepting corporate liability if a Waymo vehicle causes a fluke accident.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 23:10 Dolgov explains sensor physics and weather penetration

Dolgov educates Raz on the physical limitations of passive camera systems compared to active radar and lidar wavelengths in fog, rain, and blinding light.

Guy holds their own ▶ 22:04 Raz compares Waymo multi-modal sensors to Tesla vision-only

Raz articulates the core industry architectural split, citing Tesla's camera-only redundancy argument to challenge Waymo's expensive hardware stack.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicGuy as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementGuy pushing backWhy
Google's Secret 100,000-Mile Autonomous Car Mandate 5311 Guy Raz demonstrates strong background knowledge of Google's early 2-year autonomous vehicle challenge, citing specific milestone requirements. Dmitri Dolgov describes the optimism, devious route design by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and the team's sprint to completion.
Unforeseen Real-World Edge Cases and Road Testing 4411 Dolgov explains early unpredictable edge cases, such as closed tollbooth gates on the Golden Gate Bridge and falling bicycles. Raz actively supplements the discussion with realistic driving complexities like variable shoulder lanes.
Listener Voice Memo and Mid-Show Sponsor Break 5412 Following the mid-roll break, Raz probes the 2013 strategic pivot from driver assist to full autonomy and asks whether Waymo ever considered manufacturing cars. Dolgov clarifies that human driver overreliance forced the shift and explicitly dismisses car manufacturing as outside their scope.
Evolution of the Waymo Driver and First Autonomous Rides 5411 Raz recalls the public 2015 Austin ride by Steve Mahan, confirming his familiarity with Waymo's timeline. Dolgov outlines the evolution across hardware generations and the custom safety features built into the early Firefly prototype.
Sensor Suite Architecture: Multi-Modal Fusion vs. Vision-Only 6523 Raz introduces the industry debate between Tesla's vision-only philosophy and Waymo's multi-sensor approach. Dolgov educates on the physics distinction between passive optical sensors and active radar/lidar sensors that penetrate adverse weather and high-beam glare.
Commercial Scaling and the Launch of Waymo One 5311 Raz recaps the commercial progression from Chandler pilots to broader testing. Dolgov explains the architectural decision to jump directly to fifth-generation Jaguar I-PACE platforms for dense urban environments rather than incrementally expanding older minivans.
Passenger Experience and Overcoming Rider Anxiety 4212 Raz brings up rider apprehension and questions how Waymo reassures nervous first-timers. Both Dolgov and Raz bond over the psychological shift where passengers normalize the experience and return to their phones within minutes.
Safety Track Record and Legal Liability Frameworks 5424 Raz presses Dolgov on technology misuse and legal liability in hypothetical autonomous vehicle collisions. Dolgov grounds the defense in current highway mortality baselines and confirms Waymo accepts responsibility for driver actions.
Fleet Economics, Commercial Partnerships, and the Future of Urban Mobility 5434 Raz challenges the financial viability of ride-hailing versus software licensing. Dolgov firmly pushes back against dismissing ride-hailing economics and defends the viability of personally owned autonomous vehicles within a decade.

Statements from this episode (10)

Assertion Supported
Dolgov: Google gave self-driving team a 100,000-mile zero-intervention mandate
“The first one was to drive a 100,000 miles in autonomous mode. That was, you know, way more than orders of magnitude, more than, you know, what anybody has done at that time. And the second one, and, you know, actually that one turned out to be more interestin…”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 5:15
Assertion Supported
Google pivoted to full autonomy after test drivers slept at the wheel
“One was what we learned from people using the driver assist system. They would overtrust it. They, you know, would put on makeup and, you know, text and, you know, one guy actually fell asleep.”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 15:13
Disclosure
Dolgov: Waymo never seriously considered manufacturing its own cars
“I don't think we ever seriously entertained building a car. It just never made sense, you know, to me, you know, or others to, you know, do that. Like we're not a car company. Building cars hard, right? There's many companies that, you know, spend a hundred ye…”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 16:54
Assertion Supported
Waymo built custom LiDAR after off-the-shelf sensors proved too unreliable
“The sensors at that time, you know, didn't have the level of reliability or capability that we would need, that we would trust, you know, to go to full autonomy. So we build, you know that generation had our own lighters and, you know custom sensor suite.”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 21:43
Assertion Supported
Dolgov: Waymo's current vehicle generation uses 29 total cameras
“On the current generation, we have kind of all of them, including internal ones, we have 29 cameras.”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 23:13
Insight
Waymo riders typically stop paying attention to the road within minutes
“What we very consistently see, and I guess I would love if To hear if that matches your experience, but once people get in the car, just, you know, after a couple of minutes, they get very comfortable and they go back to, you know, doing whatever they want to …”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 28:44
Disclosure
Dolgov: Waymo accepts legal responsibility for actions of its autonomous driver
“For the actions of, you know, the Waymo driver. The responsibility, you know, lies, you know, with Waymo.”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 33:28
Assertion Supported
Swiss Re study: Waymo eliminated bodily injury claims over 4 million miles
“That study that Swiss RE has done was very encouraging that when they looked at, you know, almost four million miles of, you know, our fully autonomous operation, they found that massive reduction in, you know, a hundred percent reduction in the bodily injury …”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 33:58
Assertion Supported
Waymo operated roughly 250 autonomous vehicles in San Francisco in late 2023
“We have a fleet in San Francisco of about 250 vehicles. You know, they're not all out at the same time, but it gives you an approximate order of magnitude.”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 35:16
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2033
Dolgov: Autonomous taxis in most major US cities within 10 years
“I definitely agree with the latter, and I would not dismiss the former. 10 years is a, you know, reasonably long time, and, you know, things can happen nonlinearly.”
Dmitri Dolgov Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 38:52
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