The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,222 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Needham: Fusion is regulated as a materials framework, not a reactor
“We work with them to make sure the licensing regime for fusion falls under 10 CFR 30 for those who are interested, but it's basically a materials framework where we just have to be responsible stewards of the materials that are on site, which include tritium a…”
Baglino: Tesla Energy Relied on Auto Business Before Reaching Standalone Profitability
“The energy business was heavily supported by the vehicle business through many years, to be frank, but finally kind of got out of that bird's nest and was able to fly on its own and generate serious profits and bring cash back to the Tesla broader company, and…”
Baglino: Panasonic supply bottlenecks forced Tesla to cut Powerwall production in 2017-2018
“Especially as we got into the 2017 and 2018, there was a cell sort of pinch. Panasonic was having a hard time ramping, and we didn't have enough cells to go around between vehicles and energy, and so we had to kind of, like, pare back on the Powerwall build pl…”
Baglino: Tesla prioritized vehicles over energy products during COVID chip shortages
“The same thing happened, by the way, in the COVID crisis where, you know, there were semiconductor shortages. It was kind of like, hey, vehicles, the breadwinner energy, you know, you're going to have to get the scraps and figure it out. And I don't, I think t…”
LineVision's sensor technology increases transmission line capacity by up to 40 percent
“LineVision has a technology, it's a combination of soft Square and sensors that allows us to increase the capacity of a transmission line by up to 40% or more without having to either reconductor the line or build new lines.”
Garabedian: Decarbonization requires multiple terawatts of new electrolysis capacity
“The sectors were looking to decarbonize with kind of green molecules, so-called green molecules. If you measure them in terms of electrolysis or generating capacity, we're talking multiple terawatts of needed new energy supply, new power supply to cross into t…”
US steel costing triple Asian steel crushes domestic solar manufacturers
“Half of any tracker is steel, and if that underlying commodity is threex the cost in the U.S., it's going to make it hard to compete with anyone.”
Jigar Shah: 2025 EV sales will surpass 2024 levels
“I think that we'll have more EV sales in 25 than we had in twenty-twenty-four.”
Shah: Republicans will pass Trump tax cuts bill and flip five Democrats
“Like, if you think that the Republicans on the Hill are not going to pass a bill that actually extends the Trump tax cuts, like, you're nuts. And if you think that it's not going to be super easy to peel off five Democrats to vote for it, Just by giving them, …”
Taylor: Gridstor Was Among First to Transfer IRA Tax Credits
“We were one of the first, if not the first project to be able to effectuate a transfer of the new tax credits that are available under the Inflation Reduction Act, which is kind of an in the weeds, wonky finance thing, but critically important to taking these …”
O'Sullivan: Capital allocators fund infrastructure and early-stage, neglecting the middle
“The vast, vast majority of capital allocators out there today dedicate the absolute lion's share of their capital into, focused on energy, that is, into large infrastructure assets like wind and solar and now storage at scale. Which are de-risk asset categorie…”
Braga: Multi-gigawatt gap exists between power demand and generation retirements
“And then in the long term, you have multiple gigawatts of space between projected demand. Even if we're wrong about the most bullish projections, there is still gigawatts of gap Between planned retirements on the supply generation side and, ah, what we have co…”
Dave: Via Separations membrane cuts industrial separation energy use by 90%
“Which at the industrial scale is 90% lower energy, fully electrifiable, and more modular and therefore demand responsive.”
Farooqi: Data from 400 implementations links higher savings to greater peak reduction
“The data that Scott was referring to that I had developed in my previous career we had data from 400 implementations of time varying rates across the globe. And what we found was that the bigger the savings opportunity, the more will be the reduction in peak l…”
Shah: Unused oil and gas public land permits can convert to geothermal
“All unused oil and gas permits on public lands can automatically be converted into geothermal.”
Phillips: Utilities continue buying obsolete first-generation smart meters
“And there's still decisions being made for a previous generations of meters.”
Patterson: Steel solar frames cut embodied emissions by 90% versus aluminum
“We knew it would be material, but we never realized it would be a 90% reduction over imported aluminum frames, and it's not just the transit from Asia to the US or Europe. It truly is just that aluminum is an insanely dirty metal”
Solomon: Duke Energy plans nearly 9 GW of new gas plants
“Duke Energy, for instance, they include plans for nearly nine gigawatts of new gas and almost seven of those are, they're proposed as combined cycle power plants that are designed to run a high percentage of the time, not designed to meet new peaks in demand.”
Solomon: Advanced conductors can quadruple transmission capacity by 2035
“Basically we found that you could add up to four times the amount of transmission capacity that you could in a constrained transmission environment like the one we're in right now by using advanced conductors. So by 2035.”
Domenech: US energy costs have risen 30% since 2021
“I might back away from Bidenomics, too, if energy costs had climbed by 30% since 2021.”
Hurlbut: 180 scientists warned Biden that LNG emissions rival coal
“The president received a letter from like a 180 scientists saying that When you look at those life cycle emissions, it's almost, or could be worse than coal, and you're locking this stuff in for, like, 40 years if you build these big export facilities.”
Hurlbut: DOE Loan Programs Office has ~3% default rate
“The default rate on those loans is about three percent, which is in line with a commercial bank, yet the DOE is required by statute to take innovative technology risk.”
Hurlbut: Projected global warming has dropped from 3.7°C to 2.7°C since 2015
“And since 2015, the projected amount of warming expected in the coming decades has dropped from 3.7 to 2.7 degrees Celsius.”
Groarke: Utility operations and maintenance costs are rising 40% annually
“O&M in the utility sector generally going up 40% per year per utility.”
Bhargava: Individual AI data centers will add 1.5 gigawatts of load
“Data centers are going to get real hairy. It is going to be a lot of load coming on very, very, very quickly, and the power sector has not dealt with that much load that quickly when you've got a gigawatt and a half, you know data center coming online, and tha…”
Lacey: US needs 200 gigawatts in new peak resources by 2030
“According to the Department of Energy, we're going to need new resources to meet this amount of peak demand by 2030 because of new load, like data centers electric vehicles, broader electrification, manufacturing facilities, and then also retiring coal plants.…”
Brattle: 20M EVs Will Add 10-20 GW of Peak Load by 2030
“10 to 20 gigawatts of peak load to the system, requiring 12 to 18 gigawatts of renewable capacity.”
O'Donnell: South Australia experiences nearly 3,000 hours of negative electricity prices
“Look at South Australia with 70% renewables in the system and almost 3000 hours a year of negative electricity prices.”
O'Donnell: Carbon capture fundamentally requires burning 30% more fossil fuels
“One, the carbon capture path says you're burning fossil fuel, burn 30% more fossil fuel than you're using right now to capture the emissions from burning fossil fuel. We can stipulate that is not a pathway that's cheaper than burning fossil fuel.”
O'Donnell: Electric boilers double or triple emissions on today's US grid
“A heat pump may get you about level with emissions from burning fuel directly locally, and an electric boiler will multiply your scope one plus two, at least by a factor of two and maybe three.”
O'Donnell: Rondo heat batteries address 90% of global industrial heat
“The temperatures that today's Rondo heat batteries deliver serve about 90% of all the industrial heat used in the world.”
Gurman: Apple considered acquiring Tesla and met with Musk before passing
“Initially, the first part of the car project was examining what it would take to acquire Tesla, integrate Tesla, and take Tesla to a new level under Apple ownership. And so they spent a lot of time exploring the possibility of acquiring Tesla. Apple's head of …”
Janis: Hyperscaler electricity procurement tranches have reached gigawatt scale
“The tranche sizes each year that you're having to go out and procure are now being measured in the gigawatt scale. So you're no longer immaterial to utilities load forecast. In fact, in many cases, you are the utilities load forecast.”
Janis: RMI study shows GETs unlock over 6 GW on PJM grid
“There was a great RMI study that just came out very recently that looked at the PJM system and determined that you could unlock in excess of six gigawatts of extra capacity, and this is, I mean, PJM's a 90 gigawatt system, so six gigawatts is not nothing. That…”
Cotton: Under 1% of materials in new lithium batteries are recycled
“And if you contrast that today to a new lithium battery that you get regardless of the application, whether it's an EV or a piece of consumer electronics, et cetera that has under one percent of the recycled lithium, nickel, or cobalt in that new battery. It a…”
Lacey: Supply chain investment is the only sector on track for net zero
“And not only are we seeing an increase, a massive increase in investment, but that that's the only piece of the clean energy transition that's on track for a net zero scenario. So we're actually ahead of schedule in supply chain investments, particularly in so…”
Ramanathan: BYD overtook Tesla as the world's top EV seller in 2023
“They became at the end of last year, the leading seller of EVs. They edged out Tesla last year for that title”
BNEF's Sekine: Average battery prices will fall 6% to $133/kWh in 2024
“Our, like our expectation at BNF is that prices will drop this year. So drop about six percent. So we averaged last year, just as a pricing point, we averaged at about 139 dollars per kilowatt hour on a volume average basis. So that includes all segments that …”
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing capacity reached 3x demand in 2023
“When you have three X
Battery like manufacturing capacity relative to total demands in the global market, which is where we are where we were in 2023, you kind of expect there to be some shakeup because not every company is able to ramp up a gigawatt hour fact…”
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing overcapacity will worsen through 2025
“If we are to simply look at the overall capacity that's expected to come online based on company announcements between now and 2025, that factor that I mentioned three X of battery capacity relative to demand today or in 2023, that actually becomes worse over …”
Lacey: Utility transmission declines cause terawatt-scale clean energy backlog
“Meeting that demand is going to require tens of billions of dollars in new transmission, but transmission investments among investor-owned utilities have actually declined in the last few years, and so that's causing this massive backlog of renewables and batt…”
Hamilton: Treasury Will Likely Retain 45V Three Pillars Hydrogen Framework
“I suspect they will. I suspect that they will simply come up with ways in which you can use existing resources at certain times to be able to qualify so that you really are getting clean, green hydrogen and you're not leaving plants that are, that aren't reall…”
Davis: Chinese solar module prices will floor at 12-15 cents in 2024
“Well, in terms of pricing trends just for Chinese modules, we do expect some further declines throughout twenty-twenty-four. Depending on what module technology you're talking about modules can be, you know, 15 to 18 cents, and we expect that they might go dow…”
Lacey: Wood Mackenzie forecasts 370 GW yearly solar installations by 2030
“Now, Wood Mac expects about 370 gigawatts yearly by then.”
RMI: Global battery capacity will reach 9 TWh annually by 2030
“They Are estimating that there's going to be global capacity of nine terawatt hours of batteries, lithium ion batteries per year by 2030. That's a kilowatt hour for every person on the planet. And they are estimating that just those batteries will surpass the …”
St. John: California Rooftop Solar Installations Dropped 75% to 80% Post-NEM 3.0
“The new regime cuts the compensation or economic value for rooftop solar for Single-family homes roughly in half and the installations have dropped by roughly three-quarters to four-fifths since that went into effect in April, and California solar installers a…”