Dec 6, 2022 · 34m · green-blueprint
A breakout year for carbon removal?
Julio Friedman · 15m spoken Stephen Lacey · 9m spoken Raphael Brose · 5m spoken Brad Smith · 31s spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
This episode explores the surging momentum, technological landscape, and operational bottlenecks within the carbon dioxide removal sector. Host Stephen Lacey interviews Microsoft's Raphael Brose and Carbon Direct's Julio Friedman to examine corporate procurement strategies, verification standards, and the roadmap to scaling durable carbon removal to gigaton levels.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 3.1 Guest teaching 3.1 Guest disagreement 0.6 The hosts pushing back 0.1
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 19:00 Friedman criticizes legacy registries and lack of standards
Friedman dismisses existing certification standards as unfit for purpose and blunt about the prevalence of bogus credits in the voluntary market.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 27:44 Lacey questions oil and gas industry inactionLacey presses Friedman on why multinational oil and gas companies sat on the sidelines despite having superior engineering and subsurface infrastructure capacity.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 18:57 Friedman contrasts avoided emissions against durable removalsFriedman educates listeners and the host by breaking down why wind farms and methane capture reduce emissions but fail to meet the scientific standard of atmospheric carbon removal.
The host holds their own ▶ 27:44 Lacey connects infrastructure bottlenecks to oil company skill setsLacey demonstrates domain synthesis by connecting Friedman's points on piping and human capital bottlenecks to the specific structural strengths of legacy oil majors.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Show Announcements: Canary Media Fundraiser and Survey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Introductory housekeeping, fundraising announcements, and narrative setup with clips from the upcoming interviews. No interactive dialogue takes place. | |
| Microsoft's Carbon Goals and Nature-Based Solution Challenges | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Narrated documentary segment framing Microsoft's climate goals with soundbites from Brad Smith and Raphael Brose. The host outlines the basics of nature-based vs. engineered solutions with Brose providing context. | |
| Raphael Brose on Engineered Carbon Removal and Market Scaling | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Stephen Lacey interviews Raphael Brose in a collaborative, journalistic manner about engineered solutions like DAC and BECCS. Brose explains the scaling gap between existing capacity and the 10-gigaton target. | |
| Julio Friedman on Navigating the Complexities of Carbonville | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | Julio Friedman introduces 'Carbonville' and details the variety of durable carbon removal approaches across forestry, soils, DAC, and mineralization. Lacey prompts him to explain why non-durable projects dominate the market. | |
| Verification Gaps, Accounting Standards, and the Gigaton Imperative | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | Friedman sharply differentiates between avoided emissions and true removals, calling out flawed legacy certification models. Lacey asks straightforward clarifying questions while Friedman commands the technical narrative. | |
| Market Costs and Core Bottlenecks Facing Engineered Removal | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | Lacey asks about cost bottlenecks, prompting Friedman to reframe cost as secondary to human capital, physical infrastructure, and community permitting challenges. The tone is highly educational and cooperative. | |
| The Essential Capabilities and Mobilization of Energy Companies | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Lacey asks why oil and gas companies haven't entered the space sooner given their technical capabilities. Friedman directly explains that there was no policy incentive or revenue model until recent subsidies took effect. | |
| Transformative US Legislation and Long-Term Carbon Market Trajectory | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Discussion of the Inflation Reduction Act and the long-term outlook for carbon removal over the next 20 years. Friedman draws analogies to early solar and battery tech history. |
Statements from this episode (17)
Brad Smith: Microsoft will remove all historical carbon emissions by 2050
“By 20 50, we will remove from the environment all of the carbon we have emitted directly or by electrical consumptions since our company's founding in 1975.”
Brose: Microsoft carbon removal project burned in Bootleg Fire
“And one of the projects that we purchased from in 2020 burned in the bootleg fire, and so that risk went from a theoretical number on a page, you know, two percent risk of reversal over the project lifetime to, well, it happened, and was that reversal risk the…”
Brose: Carbon removal pledges total $1.5B to $2B
“Altogether, you're talking one and a half, maybe two billion dollars in publicly pledged money. That doesn't include folks who are coming in out of the wings that, you know, that haven't announced yet.”
Brose: Engineered carbon removal supply will scale significantly between 2024 and 2027
“I think we should be seeing a lot more supply for engineered carbon removal in twenty-twenty-four, twenty-twenty-five, 26, and 27. Those are when we see the first first-of-a-kind, really large plants coming online, and that's when I think that supply is gonna …”
Brose: UN science requires 10 to 15 gigatons of carbon removal annually
“So, if I recall my UN science appropriately, we need probably 10 gigatons, that's ten billion tons per year of carbon removal in, say, twenty-fifty. And then, You know, you add or subtract that depending on how, how you think we're doing with decarbonization o…”
Brose: Global carbon removal capacity is only 3 million tons per year
“Worldwide, we think the carbon removal market, carbon removal capacity per year is about three million tons. So we're off by 10,000 X.”
Friedman: All carbon removal pathways work, but none are scaled
“All of those approaches work. They're all sound, but they have different price points. They have different durability. They have different customers. They have different regulatory frameworks, because they're happening all over the world. They're happening at,…”
Friedman: Study found half of Indian wind offset projects were non-additional
“There was a study done recently in India. They found half of the wind projects that were built there were not additional at all. That means half of them were just nothing. The other half were credible avoided emissions.”
Friedman: Carbon removal will necessarily become the largest market in human history
“The carbon removal market will necessarily be the biggest market of all human history”
Friedman: IPCC carbon removal target equals total global oil and gas volume
“All of the oil and gas that has moved around the world is about five billion tons. That is the minimum amount of CO₂ removal that the IPCC says we need.”
Friedman: High-quality nature-based carbon removal costs $20 to $35 per ton
“Right now, the nature-based solutions that are good are the lowest cost. They are ranging in price between, say, 20 and 35 dollars for the good stuff.”
Friedman: Direct air capture costs roughly $600 per ton
“Direct air capture, say, is on the order of 600 dollars a ton. A good biochar project might be on the order of 150 dollars a ton. A good biomass with carbon capture project might be between 153 hundred dollars a ton.”
Friedman: Carbon removal deployment is primarily rate-limited by human capital
“We do not have the full complement of business and worker skills to deploy. And until we do, we're going to be rate limited by human capital first.”
Friedman: US offers $180/ton incentive for direct air capture
“We have now a 180 dollars a ton for direct air capture incentive that is a few months old.”
Friedman: Scaling carbon removal requires oil and gas industry skills
“Not just the injecting CO₂ into the subsurface, which, like, they're the only people who know how to do that, Pulling together a two billion dollar project. That's something energy companies do kind of all the time. Putting together the capital stack. Managing…”